JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/21/25

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/21/25

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Ben Clemens

2:12

but like.... why aren't they trading for or signing starters?

I'm honestly enjoying the Sugano experience, but it's in a 'how the hell is he okay instead of awful' way

that man is getting squared up left and right

Buccos

2:13

Why don’t they just move Cruz to 3B and Hayes to SS? Like yeah, you’d be moving two players instead of one, but I’m infinitely more confident in Hayes at short than in Cruz in center. And it’d make Hayes’ bat way more palpable too.

Ben Clemens

2:13

I have to assume they don't think this will work, because I'm with you, it felt like the obvious move last year

Basically I think there's some idiosyncratic reason for this, because it makes too much sense for them not to have thought about

2:14

so they thought about it and didn't do it

GA Blood

2:14

Who had the Reds to score the most runs in a game this season AND do it on the road?

Ben Clemens

2:14

haha right? I'm not so surprised that it was the Reds, but I'm very surprised they did it on the road

Mike Lommler

2:14

The video of Chandler Simpson beating out the infield hit against Fried looks doctored. Hope he has a good season so he can be the staple of 5 things that he is clearly meant to be.

Ben Clemens

2:15

Couldn't agree more. I'm already working on some Chandler Simpson content, in fact

Okra

2:15

Rays are being far too cute benching Aranda and his 20% barrel rate vs lefties. The guys they are benching him for are crap and at some you have let your promising young players play.

Ben Clemens

2:15

you are preaching to the choir

hey, another member of the Ben Clemens unheralded hitters crew

but like... we have four years of evidence that this guy hits

so let him hit

Bullock

2:16

All 5 of the O's SPs have FIP > 5.20! I love Eflin, but I think this year's rotation is a lost cause. Gonna sell off all the loose parts this summer, rebuild the prospect hoard, and "contend" for another 3-5 years

Ben Clemens

2:16

If the O's are sellers this summer, the front office should be fired

you cannot get this far into the Adley/Gunnar cheap years and be trading for future considerations

I feel very strongly about that

Jim

2:17

What should the A's do about their outfield defense? Bleday is a terrible defensive CFer. Andujar and Brown can't cover ground in LF. And Butler is not terrible, but not great in RF. Denzel Clarke isn't ready for the MLB.

Ben Clemens

2:17

I'd play Rooker in left because how much worse can he be than Andujar and Brown?

they can't even hit!

2:18

their combined wRC+ doesn't add up to 100

what are we doing here?

Jewish Pache

2:18

Hi Ben! A little later into the season, when I need a 15 second check on how legit a hitter has been, I’ll check wOBA vs xwOBA. Obviously, many shortcomings here, but most notably for pulled fly ball specialists. Do you have any go-to stats to check in on hitters like that where simple contact quality doesn’t tell the story?

Ben Clemens

2:20

it's really hard, and a very good question. I agree that it's a nice first pass, and also agree that you have to be aware of the shortcomings. I do like checking out the expected homers thing on Statcast, at least in the second half of the year, b/c that does a good job of accounting for the spray angle side of things. Basically I first look at wOBA vs. xwOBA and then if someone is a big outlier, I look for why they might be

Guest

2:20

It seemed like the HP ump made a lot of mis-called strikes to Altuve last night. Or, was I imagineering?

Ben Clemens

2:20

I concur. I thought the zone was all over the place in that game, actually

also Altuve is one of the hardest zones to call. He's small, he does the crouch, but then he opens up and swings at high stuff a lot

Bosoxforlife

2:20

Are adjustments made to the run differential stat when a team scores a large number of runs off position players tossing up stuff I could still hit at 83?

Ben Clemens

2:20

They aren't but we've discussed a few different ways to do it

2:21

Tom Tango had a thing about re-weighting pythagorean expectation by game, so that a 24-2 game would count as 'one probabilistic win' more or less, but so would a 16-2 game

Okra

2:21

Why exactly did the Red Sox sign Ceddanne to that big extension? His plate discipline is so horrible and always has been. Why commit $50M to hopes and prayers when Myles Straw is free?

Ben Clemens

2:22

I tend to agree with you, but it's tricky for me to opine on this because I've had that view from the start

Let me put it this way: Bill James thought Rafaela deserved the AL Rookie of the Year last year. Bill James is both the most famous baseball analyst alive and has been a Red Sox consultant in the past. Plenty of people whose baseball opinions are held in high esteem see something in Rafaela that I simply don't

MilwaukeeBeerJays

2:23

That NL WEST is SPICY! Can the Giants keep it up for the long haul? I Think the non-colorado teams have more talent overall than the giants, but some of their FA signings are looking good: Chapman, Verlander, Ray

Josh R

2:23

At one point over the weekend the NL West had the 4 best records in the sport. For a good chunk of the season the division has had the 3 best records in the sport. How is this going to play out?

Ben Clemens

2:23

The NL West is going to be a great race this year

2:24

Obviously the Dodgers remain strong favorites to just tromp over everyone for the division title, but a)the wild cards are going to be exciting and b)divisional games are FUN when the teams are all good

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