JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/22/24

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/22/24

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat.

Today's gonna be a nice leisurely day chat-wise, so let's get right into it and then proceed at a gentle pace for a while

RTJ

2:01

Nick Castellanos has had 1 barrel this year and his statcast xBA is basically the same as his real batting average (.177). After we get through the jokes about deep drives to left field, is there anything we can take away from his slow start as we approach one month into the season? Is there any other hitter who is off to a slower start this season?

Ben Clemens

2:02

You can take away from his slow start that Castellanos hasn't been a difference maker in years

Like, actual years

He was good in 2021

He's been worth a cumulative 0.0 WAR in his Phillies career

2:03

Is anyone off to a slower start? My article today has some suggestions. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado have been putrid

Darren

2:03

Do you think Arenado is playing hurt? His average seems propped up by a high BABIP and his avg and max exit velocities are down a lot. Or is it still too early to tell?

Ben Clemens

2:04

I do, I think. He is so far out of his approach, it looks really bad

2:05

I honestly don't think it's too early to tell. This is not what a good Nolan Arenado looks like. Maybe he's hurt, maybe he's just declined a ton, but he's not playing at a level that fits with who he has been in recent years

Matt

2:05

Is Goldschmidt cooked?

Ben Clemens

2:05

meanwhile!

2:06

A week ago, I wasn't super worried about Goldschmidt

Now, I'm worried

2:07

The power numbers are a big problem

It's no longer 'oh he's swinging and missing too much'

In his last 8 games he has a 22.9% strikeout rate

fine!

he's hitting .167/.265/.167

in those games

that will not cut it

Kut me

2:08

Did Kutter Crawford sell his soul to the devil?

Ben Clemens

2:08

I mean, I don't think he's this good, but I do think he's good

the person who asks the lunch quesion

2:08

What's for lunch?

Ben Clemens

2:09

Meal kit today. My wife had dinner out with friends last night and I stayed home and cooked for myself, so no leftovers

I think this one is a pasta of some type

Mets

2:09

Am I crazy to think the Mets to think the Mets can win 86-87 games and win a wild card? The rotation is shaky but once Senga returns and Scott is called up it could be solid. The bullpen is getting led by relief ace(!) Reed Garrett and has been great and they have a good offensive core due positive regression

Ben Clemens

2:09

I mean, no?

2:10

We projected them for 81 wins preseason, 83 wins now

86-87 is extremely close to that

Lance Lynn HR Machine

2:10

The Cardinals older players are showing their age and their younger players like Walker and Gorman are struggling and not developing. Former Cardinals like O'Neill and Hicks have been playing great and the team's offense should in theory be great but is really struggling. Is there some coaching and game plan problems in Stl?

Ben Clemens

2:10

Um, yes

I'm not sure about game plan

Who in the world can figure that out from the outside

2:11

But I refuse to believe that the management that gave us things like 'victor scott plays every day until the front office demotes him defensively' and 'jordan walker is not allowed to play defense or pinch hit for alec burleson' is sneakily great at everything else

Nate

2:12

I mean Baltimore is just unstoppable right now? Arguably not a single below-average lineup regular, Adley Rutschman has somehow become underrated on his own team, RYAN O'HEARN is a dangerous middle of the order bat, it feels like any of one of them is capable of hitting the crap out of the ball at any moment. God help us all if Holliday wakes up

Ben Clemens

2:12

They look pretty great

2:14

I'm not sold on Holliday even sticking in the majors this year, let alone being spectacular right away, but I'm very excited for them

My ranking of fun teams to watch in baseball right now:

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