JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/26/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/26/21

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Ben Clemens

2:44

A meteor we'll never see again

I think I'd pick him even without the broadcast

SlightlyOff

2:44

Speaking of the Giants, did any of their pitchers pop- in a good or bad way- on that SP velocity chart you were consulting? Gausman’s rate stats are a little down from last year, so I’m wondering if it’s just my hometown bias that has me convinced he’s still firmly turning the corner into legit #2 SP land?

Ben Clemens

2:45

Cueto is the fourth-best!

I'm surprised by that, but Cueto is such a blast to watch that I'm happy about it

I haven't watched much of Gausman this year, so I'll stick with my prior that he's good now

Brew Crew

2:46

how worried are you with yelich?

Ben Clemens

2:46

Extremely

Like, extremely extremely

Back injuries are realllllly bad

2:47

I'll be less worried when he's playing and feeling no side effects, but yeah, super scary

Fernando Tatis-Buck Jr.

2:47

suarez better days ahead? Montas too?

Ben Clemens

2:47

presumably Suarez has at least somewhat better days ahead

2:48

I don't think he's gonna finish the year with a .253 OBP

Same with Montas -- I don't think he's ending the year with a 6.75 ERA

Greg

2:49

Interesting tactical decision when the Padres walked two guys (Muncy and Taylor) to load the bases and face Kershaw with one out in a tie game in the 10th.

Wouldn't it be better to just walk Muncy there and face Taylor with runners on 1st and 3rd? As long as Kershaw doesn't GIDP, you have to face one real hitter. I think the tradeoff of facing Taylor over Peters is worth the margin of error you sacrifice by loading the bases when a walk ends the game

Ben Clemens

2:49

I thought about writing about this todya, and I might for tomorrow

It's a really interesting spot

It's not JUST Taylor vs. Peters, b/c you get the benefit of sequencing

Chris Taylor could do lots of things that are outs but end the game

But if you figure Kershaw is extremely likely to strike out, you're getting edge there

2:50

So you're trading sequencing for risking a walk

I'm generally not a fan of walking the bases loaded... if you're curious, the Cardinals have already done it 4 times this year and I have half an article written about it that I couldn't find a good hook for

2:51

I think I would have done what they did but I want to run the numbers on it

45 blows billygoats

2:52

Are there any Triple-A teams that could compete against the Pirates and give them a series?

Ben Clemens

2:52

No

Or, well, yes

Because the Pirates can beat the Dodgers in a series

But if they played 162? No

Rich

2:52

Any player in particular who has surprised so far that you feel will continue?

Ben Clemens

2:52

If this counts, Carson Kelly!

2:53

But eh, I don't think he'll continue like this

I think Burnes is one of the best 5 pitchers in baseball, so I'll sya him

2:54

I definitely don't think that he was a consensus top 5 pitcher coming into the year

Guest

2:54

Clayton Kershaw career %K as a batter: 27.5; Chris Taylor career K% as a batter: 27.1

Ben Clemens

2:54

Haha okay sure, but in a left/left matchup, when the pitcher needs the strikeout, you're telling me you think they're equally likely to strike out?

I disagree

Kershaw is also less likely to make loud contact, etc

Did you see the shift they played against him? It was hilarious

2:55

Hilarious!

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