JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/27/26

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

2:01

I'm working on a pretty fun (to me) article about the changing shape of the strike zone in 2026, gonna be out tomorrow. So if you have any ABS/zone questions, they've been on my mind. and aside from that, there's a lot of fun stuff going on right now, let's do it

Oaktown Blues

2:01

Carlos Cortes is 4th in baseball in wRC+ and 3rd in xwOBA (min. 60 PA). The peripherals are unimpeachable: 6% K rate on an 87.5% contact rate, 52.6% HH rate, 15.8% barrel rate. The only red flag (and it’s a very big one) is that he’s never done anything like this before. Are you buying in, and to what extent?

AMX

2:01

Carlos Cortes can really hit. Change my mind!

Ben Clemens

2:02

article about him coming out tomorrow!

I haven't looked too much yet, to be honest. My prior is that he's never done anything like this before, and I want to see more

Look At This Sotograph

2:02

Are K rate, whiff rate, and barrel rate the only stats that are sticky enough about which to be making judgments about hitters this early in the season?

Ben Clemens

2:02

I like looking at plate discipline metrics too, and bat speed/hard-hit stuff is good

2:03

but yeah, realllllllly hard to learn a ton until we get more data

2:03

As a Braves fan, it seems a number of somewhat well-regarded prospects have turned into excellent big leaguers despite getting only modest prospect traction (Michael Harris, Drake Baldwin, Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, William Contreras, etc). Meanwhile the system has been ranked on the low end for the past 5-6 years while churning out fantastic results. I know fangraphs will revisit previous top 100 prospect lists years later to see how the projections and opinions fared. Has there ever been a re-ranking of team farm systems years later to see how the evaluations fared at the time?

Ben Clemens

2:03

probably a question for Eric or Brendan, but Eric does a 'how's my driving' of prospects, like you said, and I assume that's about the extent of it. Revisiting the rankings of 100 guys? hard. revisiting the rankings of 40*30-ish guys? exhausting

Tacoby Bellsbury

2:03

Is Rafael Devers broken for good? Minus-0.7 WAR so far despite a BABIP over .300, and apparently getting eaten alive by fastballs.

Ben Clemens

2:04

wonderful question. I have no clue. I honestly haven't done a ton of digging into the Giants this year becuase I always assume I'll go to enough games to get curious and dive in, and I haven't gotten to that poitn yet

I will tell you that I went to last Thursday's Giants/Dodgers game and Devers looked BAD

2:04

With Devers' tough start, how soon can the Red Sox claim victory on getting off of his contract?

Ben Clemens

2:04

buddy they claimed it the instant they completed the trade

Alex Cora's Burner

2:04

Who's next?

bosoxforlife

2:04

Where do you come down on the cause of the Red Sox obvious clashes between the front office and the on field manager and coaches?

Look At This Sotograph

2:04

Firing the manager several coaches in April makes the front office look pretty weak IMO.

Ben Clemens

2:05

etc, etc, lots of questions about this

I mean.... it doesn't look great! I know that Breslow's tenure has been filled with clashes between front office and coaching staff in various ways, from the scout-firing saga last year to just lots of the stuff that's come out in reporting in recent weeks, and heck, last year too

2:06

I don't have a strong opinion on whether it made sense to fire Cora. I don't know how I could from so far outside the situation. But I am definitely sure that the way they did it was not good

the whole 'the owner sits silently in the back of a meeting with players, does not speak, and does not take questions' thing just couldn't have come off well, I don't know why they thought otherwise

2:07

so like I said, I'm not really sure whether the decision made sense on the merits, and I doubt I'll ever feel strongly either way on that. It's too hard to know

But I am very sure that the way it was handled is creating distraction for little gain

I think that a lot of the Breslow era has been events like these, honestly. Good analytical decision? Perhaps, and I'm willing to give him leeway there, he's a smart dude

good decision when it comes to baseball? a lot less clear, because human beings play baseball;

Kwanbelievable

2:08

Please tell me that Austin Hedges has unlocked something at age 33 and will continue hitting .273 for the rest of the year. We're almost out of April, small sample sizes no longer apply, right?

Ben Clemens

2:08

yes. let's jsut say yes

Opifijikl

2:08

The Red Sox Did It All This Winter | FanGraphs Baseball This article gave me so much hope as a Red Sox fan (for the second year in a row, Fangraphs :/ ) I hate "gotcha's" and I still agree with your article so this isn't meant as that, but I'm curious if you have any further thoughts or ideas.

Ben Clemens

2:08

haha, I still think I'm right! I liked their offseason decision making given where they came into the year

and I think I highlighted that they still didn't do a good job filling their infield, despite doing some infield-filling

2:09

but yeah, like I said

I don't really have a strong negative opinion of Breslow's baseball decision making. I don't think I have much opinion either way, really. But I take issue with the personnel management

and given that any dummy with an Anthropic account can do analytics now, you better get the people skills right!

bosoxforlife

2:09

In this season turned upside down which is more surprising to you, the awful play of the Mets, Phillies, Red Sox and Blue Jays or the fact that all five teams in the NL Central are above .500?

Ben Clemens

2:09

NL Central teams

2:10

like, sure, teams can be awful. and you didn't even include the Giants in there, who are 30th in hitter WAR

but teams are bad all the time, and I know that it's hard to predict which ones will be bad. this division playing this well? shocking

Arathorn

2:10

Any chance to get defense included into the game simulator?

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