JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/27/26

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Ben Clemens

2:10

oooooh, that's gonna be a tough one. We've talked about it a little, but we'd need to do some "interesting" recalculating of the way we calculate defense

we're not actually putting a ball in play and letting defenders act on it, you kno? we just say 'single'

2:11

so you could do some approximating of how many singles a +5 CF turns into outs, etc., but we haven't worked out a framework yet

more likely earlier inclusions: base/out-state-specific changes, times through order changes

2:11

Would you rather be Breslow or Stearns right now?

Ben Clemens

2:12

Stearns, but I dunno, I don't feel super strong about that or anything

NYYEnjoyer

2:12

Since 2008, teams that fire their manager midseason are, on average, .407 before the firing and .474 after. There are obviously a ton of confounding factors, but that's a huge difference. Do you think there's anything there or just noise?

Ben Clemens

2:12

sounds like the kind of thing where if there werne't a positive effect, I'd be floored. to get your manager fired in season you generally have to be underperforming your true talent

SPArn

2:12

New entries to the "aesthetically pleasing" club, on my end: the Tyler O'Neill flip throw, the Peyton Tolle K strut, a Chandler Simpson no throw steal, the Belly bomb, a double digit pitch at bat that ends in either a swinging K or a double off the wall/home run. What about you?

Ben Clemens

2:13

ooh, I have a weird one for you. Luis Arraez making weird little half-speed flips at strange angles on plays where he's moving to his left

and this one is surely overplayed, but it's on my mind b/c I just saw him in person, Ohtani apologizing to the dugout after a foul ball

HappyFunBall

2:13

As of today the Washington Nationals pitching staff has earned a collective -1.4 WAR. The lowest season total for an entire staff since the Expos relocated to Washington was ... the 2022 Nats with a 0.0.

This is a two part question:
1) Will the 2026 Nats pitching staff finish with negative WAR, and
2) Will any individual member of the 2026 Nats pitching staff finish with a higher war than Joey Weimer?

Ben Clemens

2:13

oh man I giggled a little, so I definitely have to answer this one

2:14

the whole staff? the smart bet is definitely no, but I think the answer is yes

2:15

like they're SO bad, jeez

that generally means bringing up new people

but I don't think the Nats really have a lot of options tehre juuuuust yet. We'll see, and I don't feel strongly about this prediction

2)so Wiemer has 0.0 pitching WAR and 0.9 hitting WAR. We project him to be replacement level ish the rest of the way

2:17

given that Cade Cavalli is more than halfway there already, I'm gonna say no

2:18

bummer, haha

Haram

2:18

Will Jose Caballero be able to hold on to the starting job? His bat has been really good lately and already leading the AL in stolen bases with 11.

Ben Clemens

2:18

I kind of think he will

But, maybe it'll be the third base job?

like, bench Caballero, a good-hitting good-fielding infielder? don't love it

2:19

Bench Ryan McMahon, who has a 66 wRC+ this year, was at 84 last year, and bats ninth?

seems a little easier of a sell

SPArn

2:19

That sound you overhear off in the distance is Foster Griffin munching on some innings. He will eclipse Wiemer on volume alone. Also - have a hunch he's a guy you would, or do, like. 8 pitch mix!

Wooly Mammoth

2:19

Victor Scott couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat. Should Church be given the run way as the CF to see if he can be an average full time regular for the Cards and build his skills for the next few years?

Ben Clemens

2:20

so, take this with a grain of salt, because I'm a Church believer, if I were doing 'less-heralded prospects' or whatever we used to call that series, I'd have had him at the top of the list this year

2:21

but yes! Scott was an interesting and worthy experiment, but he cannot hit at an acceptable major league level. I don't think that's in much doubt.

I don't think Church will stick as an average regular. But I am a lot less certain of that fact

2:23

Basically there's a lot of stuff I'm willing to believe in with Church. Good bat control. Swings at a reasonable rate. I'm definitely worried about his swing-at-everything approach this year, and I kind of expect things to fall apart. But it's really out of character, he was much better both last year and in the minors,and he's succeeding despite it. so that buys him more runway to figure it out

I'd prefer to bet on a 'maybe even though I'm doubtful' than a 'nahhhhh', basically

Derek

2:23

Did Casey Schmitt Monstars Devers?

DJ Tofu

2:23

What are the stats lines you would predict for Casey Schmitt and Jung Hoo Lee at the end of the year?

Ben Clemens

2:23

i looked up JHL's batting line last night and was very surprised

2:25

I'm not buying either of these improvements, really, but I do think that Schmitt is probably a decent enough hitter (like, 109 wRC+ from 2024-present) and Lee is an above average bat

Fried Schlittler Cole Rodon Warren

2:25

Seems pretty good.

Ben Clemens

2:25

spectacular rotation, yeah

jupiterbrando

2:25

Rate this idea: Kodai Senga, Closer

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