JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/28/25

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Ben Clemens

2:29

honestly maybe coliseum stats should be footnoted

it plays way more offensively than the coliseum, and it'll play even more so in the summer

2:30

but Steinbrenner is the weirdest, check out Michael Rosen's look at it for more

Pitching Philosophy

2:30

It feels like every year we marvel at the amount of pitching talent and depth the Dodgers have, only for 60-80% of those pitchers to suffer major injuries. Certainly some of this is a function of the team prioritizing talent over track record of health but could some of this be due to the way they build up their pitchers?

Ben Clemens

2:30

at least partially b/c of the way they build them up and partially b/c they draft and trade for this archetype

Kevinc2020

2:30

Im in desperate need for saves. Would you recommend Cruz or Leasure? If I had to get one

Ben Clemens

2:30

I'm a huge Cruz head

like, he might walk some dudes, but he is legit unhittable

Okra

2:30

NL West has 4 really good teams. % chance the Rockies match or win fewer than White Sox 41 wins last year? 60%? They are so bad

Ben Clemens

2:31

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/besting-the-2024-white-sox/

Dan Szymborski just wrote about this

Nate

2:31

minimum 30 PA, can you guess who the Royals' 2nd best hitter by wRC+ is without looking at the leaderboard

Ben Clemens

2:31

oh man, this sounds hard

2:32

uhhhhh.... Massey?

2:33

nope, good old reliable Mark Canha

Henry Dodger

2:34

Is Brett Baty ultimately a starter on a second-division team?

Ben Clemens

2:34

Yes

That seems like the exact right spot for him

Monopoly Moneyball

2:34

forget about the record, what’s the worst MLB team you’ve ever seen?

Ben Clemens

2:34

the early 2000s Tigers

my grampa was a big fan and was constantly regaling me with tales of woe

Jonah

2:35

Last year we saw teams pay what seems like a premium for good-but-not-great relief pitching at the deadline (Estevez, Adam, even Gregory Soto). Do you expect this trend to continue at this year's deadline?

Ben Clemens

2:35

Yeah, I do

2:36

it just feels like the easiest place to upgrade is there

and teams are going to be very interested in upgrades that don't cost them core long-term pieces

so paying a little over sticker price for relievers seems tempting as a result

Oaktown Blues

2:36

Can you explain what's wrong with using xWOBA that way (Re: Soderstrom)? Isn't it an easy way to check that he's kind of "earned" his results so far?

Ben Clemens

2:37

I mean, it beats nothing. But while it's less volatile than the outcome-based wOBA, at least in small samples, it's still based on a lot of volatile stuff

2:38

line drive rate, how many flares you're hitting, that kind of tihng

like I didn't think that 138 PA of a .276 xwOBA in 2023 was his true talent either

xwOBA would say that when it comes to contact quality, it's not like his results have been luck-driven

2:39

but simple logic would tell us that he's probably not a true talent 171 wRC+ hitter. because there are very few of those, and yet 16 players have an xwOBA higher than Soderstrom's this year

Kevin

2:39

Matt Olso is crushing the ball this year...but mostly into the ground. Can groundball rate naturally regress or does that require a mechanical adjustment?

Ben Clemens

2:39

it's a bit of both, which I know is annoying

RAGBRAI

2:40

Is N Marte finally living up to his hype? Maybe not this good but a viable contributor this season.

Ben Clemens

2:42

I'm cautiously optimistic. There's no way he's going to keep striking out so rarely while still swinging and missing so often

But I think that the promise of Marte was that he was fairly aggressive and yet wasn't going to strike out a ton, so that his power could play

2:43

I understand why projectdions are slow to lower his strikeout rate, b/c the underlying numbers look less good than the headline. But I think it's movement in the right direction and I'm more optimistic than they are

Guest

2:43

Do you foresee a Gold Glove for Austin Riley eventually or do you feel he wont surpass Hayes/Chapman/Arenado?

Ben Clemens

2:43

I like Riley's defense but yeah, the NL is just tough

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