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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/28/25

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Ben Clemens

2:56

just fine, and given that his stuff+ is exactly the same as last year's, his location is great, his pitching+ is great, and his Bot Stuff has improved, I'm not sure that Stuff+ is the perfect encapsulation of what's going on

Also I don't THINK his splitter has gotten meaningfully worse this year

2:57

Stuff+ does, but I don't really buy it. He's throwing it harder but getting more horizontal movement while killing lift better. It's missing more bats and drawing more grounders when opponents hit it

Royale with Cheese

2:57

Have you heard anything about Ragans and if he's going to miss a turn or hit the IL? Have to decide between him and Castillo for a weekly league really soon but haven't seen any update since Friday. Thanks!

Ben Clemens

2:57

Haven't heard a word

Martin

2:57

Any thoughts on Hayden Birdsong

Ben Clemens

2:57

Should be starting

Jordan Hicks was sitting 92-93 yday, he is crying out for a return ot relieving

My Son Bort

2:57

Colt Keith launch angle is in the single digits. With Torres back, Tork resurgence and McKinstry playing anywhere, would it make sense to go down and regular swings to make adjustments?

Ben Clemens

2:58

ehhhhh.... I'd rather give him a chance in the majors, personally

BUT! That's only if they can find a reasonable place for him to play, and right now they cannot

2:59

so if it's between no chances at all or rebuilding in the minors, I'd make sure he's okay with it and try the minors. There aren't enough 1b/2b/3b/dh reps to go around on the team at the moment

and Kerry Carpenter is just the superior LHH option at the moment

NL Central

2:59

despite the actual results I still feel very unconfident about the Cubs; is there not tons of potential for likely regression with Busch + PCA + catchers overperforming, suspicious rotation depth with Justin Steele out, and a horrid bullpen? My gut tells me the Brewers pull another rabbit out of a hat and take the division by default

Ben Clemens

2:59

I'm NOT feeling good about the Brewers this year

3:00

this team feels scary thin to me. theyir offense is probably not going to keep getting such good contributions from hitters outside the Chourio/Contreras tier, and I don't think Contreras will improve enough to offset that. And yeah,t he pitching is just kinda ugly, as expected

3:01

I have the Cubs with an edge even though they too have a weak rotation

The Reds are actually my dark horse

Ghost of Wade Boggs

3:01

2008 Tigers were actually genuinely bad despite having: Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, Gary Sheffield, Curtis Granderson, Pudge Rodriguez

Ben Clemens

3:02

that was a weird team. not long after they went to the WS

3:02

can someone teach Bobby Witt and the rest of the royals how to actually steal a base the baserunning has been atrocious I can’t remember more tootblans

Ben Clemens

3:02

whoa what happened here?

ugly baserunning year from a good baserunning team

Nate

3:02

Yeah the only reason we're not talking about the Royals in the same breath as the Orioles is that the pitching has continued to be good - though for how long is anyone's guess (Lugo and Wacha have both showed their age to some extent, Ragans- recurring cramping issues)

Ben Clemens

3:02

totally agreed with this

3:03

but like.... the pitching is great!

Rest of season

3:03

What do you see from Pavin smith. He’s made some major changes over the last few years, and again with the k%. First borderline full-time opportunity. Ros opinion?

Ben Clemens

3:03

ehhhhh.... it's 86 PA

he was good last year too, though

in limited time

I don't think our projections are far off

they have him as a 114 wRC+ hitter, kinda nice but squarely in the first base dead zone

3:05

I don't see anything to make me move off of that central projection

Farhandrew Zaidman

3:05

Any "talented team performing way under expectations" has to include 2021-2022 White Sox, imo. But I guess the 20/20 hindsight question with them of "but were they actually talented?" is fair, though.

Ben Clemens

3:05

haha right

playoff team in 2020, abysmal in 2021, but also maybe they were just bad all along

wheelhouse

3:06

odds that cedric mullins gets traded at the deadline whether or not the orioles are in the hunt?

Ben Clemens

3:06

Bosoxforlife

3:06

Masataka Yoshida's presence on the Red Sox 40 man roster is a major stumbling block. He is virtually invisible and has completely disappeared from any and all Red Sox talk. They have to eat all his contract and ship him to Colorado, who can use any help they can get, for a low level lottery pick.

Ben Clemens

3:06

That seems reasonable to me. Any trade is going to involve the Sox eating all the money

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