JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/3/23

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/3/23

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Ben Clemens

2:21

Yeah, I think it'll be something along those lines. LeClerc gets the dangerous righties, Smith gets the dangerous lefties, and if it's all a muddle, I assume LeClerc will get the opportunities

Like, let's say the first three batters up go R/S/L, or R/L/S, I think that's probably LeClerc's outing

ENVB

2:21

Is Jeffrey Springs better this year than last or was it one start against maybe the AL's worst offense?

Ben Clemens

2:21

One start against a bad offense, until proven otherwise

2:22

To be clear, Springs was already quite good last year

This shouldn't be taken derogatorily. But let's just cool our jets on anointing anyone as majorly changed until they've made at least two starts

Guest

2:23

The dodgers drew 23 walks in their series vs the Diamondbacks and walked a single opponent. And they split the series. What a funny sport

laughing

1

Ben Clemens

2:23

Yeah, I watched a fair number of those games b/c the late windows over the weekend weren't packed and I find both the Dodgers and DBacks really fun

2:24

I think that the Dodgers role players looked pretty dang good, which was the big worry around them this year. Those are the breaks of baseball, but I am not sure I expected Outman to look like 'oh yeah this guy just seems like a good major league hitter'

RTJ

2:24

Petition for a YouTube channel of baseball zen clips

Ben Clemens

2:24

Seconded

Guest

2:25

So we know SBs are up, but is there anyway to also see if infield hits are up as well? Feels like there should be improvement there as well.

Ben Clemens

2:25

We have 'infield hit percentage' on our batted ball page

So let's see: it's 6.2% so far this year

... that would be the lowest mark of the past five years

2:26

One thing that's a little confusing, though, is that balls that the shift restriction turns into singles won't necessarily be infield hits, because the shift took away hard hit balls that would have reached the outfield

Mr. Redlegs

2:26

Ashcraft give me Wade Miley +10mph vibes

Ben Clemens

2:26

I'm not ready to get THAT excited but the cutter comparison tracks to me

I'm thinking Baby Corbin Burnes

Walla Walla Ron Washington

2:27

Are Burleson and Gorman going to make life frustrating for Noot, O’Neill, and Donovan, in terms of playing time?

Ben Clemens

2:27

Ohhhhh yes. What a puzzle the Cards have, they have like 14 good hitters

Oaktown Blues

2:27

Playing at elevation doesn't affect EVs right (ignoring pitchers potentially being worse)? Just affects how far the ball will travel for a given EV?

Ben Clemens

2:27

I'm not a physicist, so I'm gonna annoyingly caveat my answer. But yes, that is my understanding.

2:28

There could be some second-order effects that I'm not understanding, but given when they measure it, they should be nearly unaffected, if not completely unaffected

Derek

2:28

So, after three games, these rule changes are basically all good, right? Between those changes, the WBC, and no labor strife (and in fact some surprising labor harmony with the minor league CBA), MLB, and baseball in general, are on a nice little hot streak! When is the last time we've started the MLB season in such an optimistic place, and how long can we expect these good vibes to continue?

Ben Clemens

2:28

Yeah they all seem amazing. I watch a fair bit of baseball with people who are less baseball-obsessed than me (because that applies to a LOT of people), and they are universally enjoying the pace of play and the steals

2:29

The biggest downside for me has been how often the pitch clock and the batter timeouts get explained, but I totally get why they're doing that and think they should continue for at least a little bit

Chip

2:29

Is it time for Yankee fans to start freaking out? They lost a game this weekend and that usually means the fans are out with pitchforks.

Ben Clemens

2:29

They've bought themselves a bit of time by winning the other two games a combined 11-0. Let's wait until they lose a series to go truly bonkers

Sad Tigers Fan

2:29

Please say something nice about the tigers

Declawed

2:29

Tiger look pretty hopeless. Why have they been so bad at player development??

Ben Clemens

2:29

Riley Greene

2:30

Like, he's fun!

Other than that, yeah, the season is not off to a smashing start in Detroit. I am optimistic about E Rod, and looking forward to seeing Manning and Skubal, but it's not starting great!

Russell E

2:31

How much would you read into Kaleb Ort matching deGrom and Springs, at 117, on the FG Stuff+ leaderboard?

Ben Clemens

2:32

I'm probably gonna wait for a few more starters to get in the books and then write about interesting takeaways like this in Stuff+. Since we have these fancy new leaderboards, we might as well use them. I would say that I am not reading too much into any one number quantitatively, particularly since the stuff and location metrics are a bit black-box-y, but I'm interested in big gainers from year to year and curious to see what Ort is doing

X Gonna Give it you

2:32

Will Xander Bogarets finish the year as the top hitter for the Padres?

Ben Clemens

2:32

Nah, but I'd buy second

2:33

He is a really underrated hitter. He has a little bit of the Mookie Betts/Freddie Freeman vibe to me, where they don't have huge max exit velos but they just have a knack for maxing out on their contact

cool

1

Moonlight Graham

2:33

Did MLB ever say what the official book symbol for violation strikeout / walk is? GKR had a healthy debate about what they were going to use and I liked Gare's idea of a sideways facing upwards K

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