JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/6/26

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/6/26

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Ben Clemens

2:02

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat. I'm going to try to answer a good amount of specific player questions today, plus anything about my 'upgrades' article from today, plus whatever other normal chatting nonsense we get up to. But if I don't get to your player-specific question (and especially if it's "and how important is what we've seen so far") know that my default answer is "it hasn't been many games, nothing is real yet"

Ben

2:02

Is the Nats bullpen really as bad as it looks? I really don't think a single one of their guys would be on a winning roster. How did this happen?

Ben Clemens

2:03

Hm.... This one, I think, might be real. I just looked at our rest-of-season WAR projections and it took me a second to find the Nats because they're the only team behind 'unsigned free agents' in reliever WAR

um, ouch

I very much doubt he's reading this, but one of my best friends went to yesterday's game and had to leave when it was 6-1 Nats. 8-6 Dodgers, final. what the hell

Guest

2:04

Should every hitter wear some type of glasses/contacts that helps them see the ball better? I'm sure they all have great eyesight, but wouldn't there be an even bigger advantage to be had with additional sight aides?

Ben Clemens

2:04

I mean.... I am always wondering about this too!

To me, obviously yes. But like, also, probably to every Driveline employee, also yes? And yet we haven't heard of a wave of this sweeping the majors. So I'm guessing it's actually a complex issue

12 to 6

2:05

james tibbs iii mvps over/under - ten? ok, the smallest of sample sizes, but seriously; first round pick and good pedigree, dodgers development team worked with him to incorporate a justin turner-esqe timing step to his swing, he murdered the ball in spring training, and has obviously obliterated the minors so far. what did la actually find/fix here?

Ben Clemens

2:06

This is a fun one. I've always really liked Tibbs, and I didn't really understand why a)the Red Sox let him go b)they traded for him if they didn't value him highly

so I don't know, I'm not a reliable narrator here is my point

2:07

I am like "okay yes it worked he's a top 50 prospect" without needing to be convinced. But I guess what i'd say is that this is an interesting start to me because it agrees with a lot of my pre-conceived notions about how good his profile already looked

so take it with a grain of salt, but if you have pre-existing views and early-season results confirm them, that's a much better sign that something is right than just looking at a random early-season result and assuming significance

matt w

2:08

Looking for a milquetoast response here. If I'm Boston, should I be worried about regression when one of my starters has an ERA under 3 but an xERA over 5?

love

2

Ben Clemens

2:08

Oh, that I can do. To me, Boston's biggest worry is the fact that they just have a bad record now.

Dan's thing: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yes-pennants-can-be-lost-in-april/

was really good, and I took it to heart

2:09

My thing today about upgrades, which I also take to heart because I mean, I wrote it, why wouldn't I: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/let-me-upgrade-you-small-improvements-with...

That would say that they need to upgrade shortstop, or I suppose left-side infielder if you're down on Durbin

2:11

I think the pitching is just fine, because I thought it was the best rotation in baseball before the season and very few games have happened since then. But I do think that the combination of a slow start and some holes (infield, basically) means that they should do something

Mom

2:11

Hi Ben

Ben Clemens

2:11

Hi mom

bosoxforlife

2:11

The Giants appear to be in trouble. The icing on the pile was Matt Chapman getting thrown out trying to steal after leading off the 9th with a single. It was as incomprehensible as Babe Ruth being thrown out to end the 1926 WS.

Ben Clemens

2:12

Yeah, that was not a great look. Chapman had a bad series overall. The Giants are like a budget version of the Red Sox situation. Their early start doesnt' change how I view the team, but it does matter, and so they should do something about it because their chances of making the playoffs have gone down and are at risk of evaporating.

2:13

Their upgrade would be SP, or alternately a real bat, speaking of which:

clydethedog

2:13

when do you think Bryce Eldridge gets the MLB nod?

Ben Clemens

2:14

I'm pretty confused by this. I mean, they just think he isn't ready. That's the only explanation for them playing a Casey Schmitt/Jerar Encarnacion "platoon" at first

2:16

I just don't know what else to say. They must just not think he's ready. His early-season stats in AAA are not super encouraging, still a ton of swing and miss and not much power so far

Ben

2:16

What are your thoughts on the trade-offs between pushing a prospect so that you might get a draft pick versus giving them enough time to develop? Do you think there are reverse incentives on the other-end? Meaning if I don't call up the prospect right away, I am going to wait till 44 days left in the season (especially if I am not in playoff race).

Ben Clemens

2:17

I think it's contextual to each prospect's development. I was thinking about this in regards to JJ Wetherholt. So, he basically hasn't failed at any level. When's the last time he was bad? Is it literally never?

So, I didn't think they were doing a ton for him by leaving him in Triple-A to start the season. I think it would generally be useful for prospects to get exposed to something they can't handle and learn how to adapt to that

So, incentives? Aligned

2:18

But yes, you can definitely imagine prospects who aren't ready, but who get pushed for PPI reasons. I don't have an example off the top of my head. And the tail-end thing definitely happens. If you're not in the playoff race, you just do a September call-up like in the old days. But I do think that's mostly fine. It's likely way after Super2 deadline, and possibly after a deadline to even count for super 2, at that point

Cube Jockey

2:19

Worried about Nick Kurtz yet, or it's April?

Ben Clemens

2:20

Definitely just April. I'd love to see him start either chasing less or attacking early more, which I think is a weakness typical of someone who storms through the minors without ever failing

Bullpen Upgrades

2:20

I was hoping to see relievers in your upgrade article today. Was it just too hard for any 1 reliever to make an impact on the playoff odds, or were they fully excluded from the exercise?

Ben Clemens

2:20

So they were fully excluded, but largely because I think that it's too hard for any one reliever to make an impact on the playoff odds

2:21

I'm not saying it's impossible for that to be the case in real life. But I know how OUR odds work. And the relievers just aren't going to move them enough

2:22

Now, is there evidence that closer upgrades move playoff races a huge amount? I've never seen any, I guess I could look into it someday but it seems hard to measure. But our model is just a distillation of statistics to approximate reality, and if this effect exists, we definitely miss it

Jeremy

2:22

Wheeler's velocity is way down in his rehab starts compared to pre-injury. How much should Phillies fans be sweating the possibility that Wheeler's done as an elite starter? I mean, how much more should we be sweating, compared to before Wheeler's rehab starts?

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