JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/8/25

Ben Clemens

2:02

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat.

2:03

I didn't watch much baseball over the weekend because I was at a family wedding, but I spent yesterday force-feeding myself everything I could, so hopefully I'm back to full speed takes

Davy Andrews

2:03

Hi Ben!

Ben Clemens

2:03

Hey Davy, or Davy imposter

Chip

2:03

Was looking at Jacob Wilson's Savant page, and he looks like fool's gold. 1% bat speed, 0 BBs in 41 PAs. Moving on, then.

Ben Clemens

2:03

This is the Jacob Wilson experience, though

2:04

His minor league Statcast stuff is basically the same. He doesn't strike out and doesn't hit the ball hard, so he gets all his power in doubles. I don't believe the projection systems here - but they have access to minor league batted ball data, the kind of batted ball data that a 30 game power grade implies, and they still think he's a good hitter

2:05

This profile is one that analytical models might slightly overrate in the aggregate -- but hitters like this work out in the majors all the time. Not to the tune of a 167 wRC+ but like, we knew that

Chip

2:05

Should we be concerned that Willson Contreras is striking out 41% of the time, up from 27% last year?

Ben Clemens

2:05

Basically no

He had two period of strikeout rate this high in 2024 and two in 2023

2:07

If there's something to be worried about, it's his chase rate, but the truth is, he has a ton of swing and miss in his game. He has a career 14.2% swinging strike rate, higher than that on the Cardinals. He's only plyaed 44 games this year. If he keeps chasing 40% of pitches outside the strike zone, it'll be hard for him to produce. So.... don't swing so much, Willson?

2:08

But that's a noisy statistic, and one that he can control more easily than anything atomic about him, like his exit velocity or contact rate, and I expect it to come down

War2d2

2:08

After Vlad got $500m (still not certain if that’s USD or CAD), do you think Tucker gets something like 12/$430m? Basically Vlad’s deal with a couple years chopped off to make up for the age difference

Ben Clemens

2:08

Vlad's is in USD, I'm sure. Blue Jays deals get reported in USD

2:09

And yeah, I think there's a ton of range in outcomes for Tucker because he hasn't played this season yet, and last season was a promising level but a worrying injury

But median expectations for me are something like that. A deal that keeps him around for a decade or more, and with an AAV in the upper 30's

seth

2:09

would you try to do extensions for any of the young redlegs to form a core next to H Greene? Elly is the obvious one (though he seems unlikely to engage as a Boras client), McLain, CES, Steer, Ty Steve, Friedl, Lodolo, Lowder all have varying yellow/orange/red flags...

Ben Clemens

2:09

I mean, yes

2:10

As a GM, I'd be offering extensions to a ton of players

But that's true for essentially any team I get to GM

owners, call me! I'm free

Redbull 44

2:10

Will Marcus Semien turn it around? Or is it a situation of a declining player hitting rock bottom and more to come? Thanks

Ben Clemens

2:12

Yeah, it's April 8, I'm gonna give myself some more time before I get worried. He's had some uncharacteristic swing and miss in his game and that seems like an unlikely place for a decline. If we're still looking at this more than 11 games into the season, I'll keep re-evaluating, but I look at his statistics and don't see a ton to worry about aside from saying that he's probably not a 130 wrC+ player anymore. Our projections had him down for around 110 before the season and that feels about right to me

Some kinda Mook

2:12

I have ceased worrying too much about Devers. Fair?

Ben Clemens

2:13

Haha, yes

I heard someone use him as an example of a player who simply could not hit if they didn't play the field

and since his miserable five-game start, he's hitting .455/.536/.727 with twice as many walks as strikeouts

is that good?

Mike Lommler

2:14

What's for lunch, and if you have to make a player comp to your lunch who would it be?

Ben Clemens

2:14

Leftovers from last night, we ordered Chinese b/c no groceries after being gone for the wedding

2:15

I think my comp would be Mookie Betts. Is the Chinese food full strength? Nope. It's been in the fridge overnight, which is kind of like playing below full weight

but is it still effective? Absolutely

SPArn

2:15

Any ~real~ takeaways from Crews and Woods small samples to start the year? Personally encouraged they're both smoking the ball and Crews defense, worried about the ground ball rates, overly selective natures, and wood continuing to look like a baby deer in left more than any counting stats

Ben Clemens

2:15

Yeah I'm with you pretty much across the board

2:16

the main thing that I'm worried about with Crews is that he just doesn't swing enough

use those tools!

and yeah, I'm expecting Wood to take a long time to figure it out on defense but he's really testing my patience at the moment

Redbull 44

2:16

It appears Povich will keep his job in the Oriole rotation with a few key injuries. Do you see anything that suggests an improvement is coming, or is this who he is? Thanks

Ben Clemens

2:17

I watched one of his starts in full, the other only in part. I don't buy the strikeout rate even a little. Just got lucky to get Devers when he was a pumpkin for a few days at random, his swinging strike rate is meaningfully down and he's not getting extra first strikes or anything

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