JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/8/25

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/8/25

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Ben Clemens

2:19

He's gonna need plus command to make this work, and I just don't have enough data on that front

DBC

2:19

Thoughts on the Giants hot start? Are they really contenders or too early to tell?

Ben Clemens

2:19

I think it kinda depends on what 'contenders' means. Are they playoff hopefuls? 100%

Are they looking at a 100-win season? I don't think so

2:21

Jung Hoo Lee looks like he's healthy, which is a big deal, and hey would you look at that, Logan Webb is one of the best pitchers in baseball, just like he is every year

But the offense is just not there for a 100-win team, imo

or even a true-talent 95 win team

Matt Damon

2:21

MATT. DAMON.

Poppy

2:21

You guys are messing with my circadian rhythm here. Justin on Monday, Jay on Tuesday....what's next? Dan eating skyline chili?

Ben Clemens

2:22

Don't go making crazy statements like that

Mr. Fister

2:22

What is the long-term outlook for Ben Rice? Stanton under contract for another year. Wells at catcher. Does Rice have enough juice to be the full-time 1B after Goldy leaves?

Ben Clemens

2:22

I think so. I have been a believer for a while, and I didn't downgrade my expectations too much after last year's rough call-up

It's not like he's guaranteed to hit, but how would you not bet on someone with his minor league stats?

2:23

It'd be one thing if your alternative were Vlad, and maybe it was for the Yankees before he signed his extension. But I'll take Rice over the 'veteran looking for a ring' class of free agents, and I don't see an obvious alternative on the NY roster

Mr. Fister

2:23

In dynasty, would you trade one of Roupp/Birdsong for Ben Rice? All salaries are $1. All are depth. So really just who would you prefer going forward?

Ben Clemens

2:23

I think it'd depend on my roster construction, but certainly in the realm of possibility

BC26

2:23

Where do you expect Sandy to be playing this August? Dodgers make most sense to me right now

Ben Clemens

2:24

I'd be surprised if he goes to the Dodgers. I think he doesn't fit the way they like to use their pitching staff all that well

That's not to say they wouldn't take him, but they've expended a lot of resources to make the pitching staff deep rather than have a few innings eating aces

2:25

it'd be weird to pivot against that and limit starts to, say, May and Ohtani to do so

with everyone healthy, they seem like a six-man rotation of Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Sasaki, Ohtani, and May. Using Alcantara in a six-man rotation seems silly. So does axing two of those guys' starts to trade for him

peanut-gallery

1

2:26

How about San Diego? They trade Cease and then do the classic Padres thing of reloading

Bruce

2:26

Know of any comparable for Junior Caminero's combination of Bat Speed vs Whiff Rate? Also can you explain to me as if I were a 5 year old why this package isn't working?

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/bat-tracking?vizX=avg_sweet...

Ben Clemens

2:26

I'll start with the second

2:27

To hit home runs, you have to hit the ball in the air. That's because there are fences that are too tall for a ground ball to bounce over. Also, ground balls don't go as far because they hit the ground a bunch.

It's hard to be a great hitter in baseball if you don't hit home runs. That's because the other team is full of very good players trying to get you out, and the easiest way to stop them from doing that is by hitting it to a place where they aren't allowed to go get it

2:30

as to whether this can continue; I mean, probably not. I do think that getting the ball in the air is going to be a long-term struggle for Caminero, and that pitchers are going to attack him low in the zone until he adapts. But his ability to hit for meaningful power even with a bunch of grounders in the minors speaks to that bat speed, and the Rays have generally done a good job with players like that

Mom

2:30

What do you think about the Nats this year?

Ben Clemens

2:31

I think that the biggest question for them is how Dylan Crews and James Wood fare. Realistically, most of the starters on offense aren't going to be starters on the next Nats playoff team; how the ones who we expect to stick around do is way more important than whether Paul DeJong has a throwback season

2:32

I'm also holding out hope that Mitchell Parker is real-ish

but basically, if the young players are good this year, it's been a successful year. And if they win 70+ games with the young players playing well, you have to start thinking about them as a playoff hopeful for '26. That's certainly possible

RH

2:33

Do you have any new season resolutions? Mine is to not look at the MLB standings until the College World Series is over. It's not going to help me to think about it before then so I am trying it out.

Ben Clemens

2:33

This time I'm not going to overreact to single games

ha!

I've already failed that one, of course

But I like reading Dan's chats early in the season to remind myself not to overreact

Oaktown Blues

2:33

It really feels like Soderstrom heard Kurtz's footsteps and decided "I better break out now"

Ben Clemens

2:33

right?

I was pretty high on Soderstrom coming into the year

I hope that came through in my first base writeup of the A's

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