JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/11/26

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/11/26

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Ben Clemens

2:33

from what I remember of the coverage of the WBC, the announcers were just non-stop ravign about how great Turang is

2:35

and yeah, he's raised leaguewide perception of his skill even more this year. But I just looked at our projections and we had Turang down as the third-best 2b in baseball before the season

behind Ketel Marte and Hoerner

Mom

2:35

I found an old Ozzie card of yours that I'll bring when I come to visit!

Ben Clemens

2:35

and look at that

DJ Tofu

2:35

How much under water are the contracts of Devers, Adames, and Chapman? Say, if the Giants were to trade one of them and include money in the trade, how much money would be needed for them to get back a token non-prospect as return?

Ben Clemens

2:37

mmmmmm.... I don't think that is likely to happen, and the math is pretty annoying to do and also very speculative. Every time that a star gets traded, everyone goes "wait why were they worth so much? my surplus value calcualtor says they're far more underwater than that"

so I'll agree with you that the contracts make tehse guys hard to move at hte moment, but I think the bigger issue is that they aren't playing well, and I definitely don't feel like trying to quantify how much of it is each

mike

2:37

have you watched Davis Martin at all this year? I find his arsenal incredibly aesthetically appealing. Doesn't overpower anyone, none of his pitches individually seem that great, but he seems to locate them well/ get great tunnelling on the kick change and slider, and has just been dominant so far (4th in MLB in fWAR, second in ERA)

Ben Clemens

2:37

I have. And Michael Baumann just wrote a big article about him that I really liked

The Actor for Al Pacino

2:38

Tangent to the Bailey trade, but I can't wait for a guy who is called "Tugboat" to be up in the big leagues, top-tier nickname

Ben Clemens

2:38

completely agree. It helps that he's also a delightful pitcher to watch

he was in the WBC and it was amazing

Jon

2:38

The Battle of Waterloo, while militarily interesting, ultimately wasn't all that important in the greater geopolitical sphere. That being said, are you the Duke of Wellington of Fangraphs?

Ben Clemens

2:39

I'm trying to think of eactly what that would say about my writing. I failed to come to a conclusion. So I'll just say Dan would be the Duke of Wellington because he's the historical reference guy

bosoxforlife

2:39

Too bad you were born after Stan The Man. Now there was an idol!

Ben Clemens

2:39

yeah, my dad has a lot of great 50s and 60s Cardinals stories

and he looooved Stan, naturally

Okra

2:40

The longer I follow baseball the more I've noticed a trend that lack of pull and/or lift seems to be a very common denominator for talented hitters who don't reach their potential. Do you agree and should teams hold guys in the minors longer if this needs to be addressed?

Ben Clemens

2:40

I think it's contextual and case-by-case. But I think it generally speaks to an inability to dictate batted ball results, and that that matters

2:41

if you're going to hit em where you're pitched, you better be pretty good at that. I think that to some extent, guys who see their lift/pull numbers crater in the majors and then pitchers just flood the zone and knock the bat out of their hands are just demonstrating that they don't really have a plan

Alec

2:41

Is there a tier of Fangraphs subscription I need to purchase to get the Tigers to stop needing to put players on the IL? (Skubal, Mize, Verlander, Melton, Jobe, Olson, Baez, Torres, Carpenter, Meadows, JUST to name a few). Semi-related question, do you think the winner of the ALC this year will necessarily need to be over .500?

Ben Clemens

2:41

haha, I do think they'll be above .500, and I'll see if that's a new FanGraphs+++ tier

the Tigers are not having good luck, that is definitely true

Mr. Burrito

2:41

So, Bobby Cox got tossed from 162 games. I saw a few on TV and am sad I missed the rest. Is robo umping going to erase a lot of that opera? It's dumb, but it's pretty fun.

Ben Clemens

2:41

I think it'll keep happening

but yeah.... he was a real outlier in that respect

2:42

I don't think any modern manager is likely to top that

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:42

What's your very early assessment of the DePodesta regime in Colorado? Julien, Johnston, Rumfield, and McCarthy have all looked like smart moves so far. They've also seemingly fixed Senzatela.

Ben Clemens

2:42

yeah, I'm kind of into it

I mean, I have no idea about the long-term results, but I think there's been more low-hanging fruit picked up, more nuts and bolts moves that good teams like making

and that's a big compliment

Hal

2:42

Do teams have different philosophies wrt letting players play through minor injuries? This is a Cal Raleigh question

Ben Clemens

2:43

absolutely, and it's hard to nkow from the outside how it goes

mike

2:43

I know you've always been pretty in on Miguel Vargas, he's been really impressive this year. Seems like he added just a bit of muscle/got his swing speed up while making elite swing decisions (99th percentile chase per savant), and it's coalescing into a solidly above average hitter

Ben Clemens

2:43

yeah. I mean, that's how I feel too. Another example of making the nuts and bolts moves - you should probably trade for the Miguel Vargases of the world, with good minor league numbers but a seeming inability to make it click in the majors, if you're rebuilding

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:43

Would you be in favor of removing the 13 pitcher limit and just letting teams construct their rosters as they want?

Ben Clemens

2:44

I would not. I want fewer pitchers, not more. I really do not enjoy the reliever parade aspect of roster management, and making it easier for teams to do that doesn't feel fun

Barn7

2:44

As a Cubs fan and 80s kid, I cannot deny you the choice of Ozzie. But do you know why I remember Vince Coleman being so much better than his stats now look in retrospect?

Ben Clemens

2:44

Because we misunderstood the value of speed then

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