JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/16/22

Ben Clemens

2:01

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat.

2:02

I've been on the run all day so far, so if I seem a little frazzled, sorry about that. I'll try to keep it out of the baseball answers -- though perhaps not out of the random questions that always come up.

Joey Fart

2:02

Are you worried about Berrios?

Ben Clemens

2:05

A little bit, yeah. It's too early to know for sure, but I'm really worried about the fact that his breaking ball and changeup are both missing a ton fewer bats

2:06

His fastball has never really been his carrying pitch, but it's been worse too. It's just really hard to succeed in modern baseball if you're not making batters miss

2:07

Now, you can. Pitchers do. But I don't really think of that as Berrios's game. When his strikeout numbers are this low, he's going to walk more batters b/c he doesn't have pinpoint command and the at-bats just keep going.

I don't really know what to think about that. Batters just aren't missing his pitches. They're not shaped particularly differently or anything. I'm gonna do some more digging (I picked him to win AL Cy Young, whoops!) but it just looks bad so far

Rexy

2:07

Do you think Trent Grisham is a lost cause?

Ben Clemens

2:08

A lost cause? Definitely not.

He's batted like 130 times this year!

2:09

I'm not really excited by his line so far, obviously. He's hitting for no power whatsoever, and that's really rough. I don't think he's gonna keep hitting for a .200 babip, I think he'll provide positive defensive value, and I thiiiiiink some of his power, which has never really been his calling card, will come back

But yeah, bad run.... definitely not considering anyone a lost cause this quickly

John

2:09

In scanning recent box scores. I have noticed what seems like an inordinate number of starting pitchers being pulled after 4.2 innings with a lead - one out from getting credit for the pitching win. Is there something to this to suppress pitcher wins for the sake of arbitration negotiations? I don’t have the wherewithal to study this myself, but perhaps you know something here.

Ben Clemens

2:10

I hadn't noticed this at all, but it sounds like something I will investigate for later this week. Watch this space!

Liz

2:11

inspired by the delightful pitching debut of Pujols last night... if MLB eventually goes to a 12 or 11-pitcher roster limit, do you think there would be a noticeable increase in position-player pitching outings? Would there be value or focus on developing "two-way" utility players (eg. an outfielder with the capacity to throw a competent inning every week or two, or something) to sneak around that bullpen limit?

Ben Clemens

2:13

When MLB was going to go to a 13-pitcher limit for 2020, before covid and all, they had specific limits on when position players would be allowed to pitch

I think that those will likely come back at some point

2:14

I do think that position player pitching outings would continue... but I think they'll still be used in blowout situations, like last night's Cardinals game (both teams used position players to pitch, actually).

Timmy Oneil

2:14

With the surge in pitching so far this season, has Gallen been overshadowed? His start is off the charts, and if last year never happened we would be talking about him as a top 10 pitcher.

Ben Clemens

2:15

Yeah, Gallen has gotten short shrift because there are just so many great pitching performances going on. He's also not going to keep up this pace; 0.26 HR/9 is absurd even with a deader ball, balls in play are finding gloves at a crazy rate, and so on and so forth

2:16

But uh, Gallen is great! He had a rough and injury-shortened 2021, no doubt, but he's an excellent pitcher. There's a reason we had him juiced on our trade value list last year and a reason that ZiPS and Steamer always love him. All he's done when healthy is be great

2:17

Even last year, his 'down' year, he was a bit better than league average basically

Morbo

2:18

Ben, I turned off the Cardinals game in the 8th inning to play MLB The Show and missed Pujols' first career pitching outing. I'm a failure and my life is a lie. All I can hope now is that my toddler saves humankind from some kind of catastrophe and saves my nonexistent legacy

Ben Clemens

2:18

I hope that your daughter, Alice Annihilator (assuming that's your last name), does great things

I, too, missed it -- I was out walking my dog

But I rewatched the whole thing, and it was really fun

Loge

2:18

True or False: 2022 will end up as Christian Yelich’s 3rd best offensive season as a big leaguer.

Ben Clemens

2:20

True. I don't think top 2 is in reach but he needs to beat out 2016 (.298/.376/.483) to get to third

That's really tough. That batting average was excellent. But I think after accounting for the lower offensive environment this year he can do it

Skubal

2:20

Do you buy Skubal as one of the game's top starters?

Ben Clemens

2:22

Top starters? I do not. I don't even think I buy him as the best starter on the Tigers going forward.

I don't understand how he's striking out so many batters. His stuff isn't wildly better than last year. He's not missing a ton more bats or anything. I'm encouraged by the walk rate decline... but again, he's not missing more bats, not filling the zone more

2:23

I reserve the right to take back my opinion after a few more months but this feels more like a mirage to me than most hot pitching starts

Moog Powell

2:24

Would it be fair to say that if you can't have an very high spin rate on your fastball, the next best thing would be a very low spin rate?

Ben Clemens

2:24

I think it's more accurate to say that if you can't have a high spin rate on your fastball, you should find another way to make it move

2:25

the whole 'fastball that moves less than you think it should' thing doesn't actually work that well in practice, in my experience. But if you don't have a high spin rate, or if a ton of your spin is gyroscopic, maybe consider throwing a sinker

Where spin is just less important, and you're getting more out of SSW and the dipping action

Tacoby Bellsbury

2:25

Are the Reds 2003-Detroit-Tigers-level bad?

Ben Clemens

2:25

Nah. They're bad, no doubt, but I think they're not even the worst team in their own division

Joey Passgas

2:26

Are you worried about Franmil Reyes? Because as a Guardians fan, I sure am.

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