JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/17/21

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Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

2:31

Oh, to be a fly on the wall when Andrew Friedman woke up this morning nursing a killer hangover only to find Pujols and Tsutsugo on his porch.

Ben Clemens

2:32

This is a very enjoyable thing to imagine

2:33

his lieutenants screaming 'no we have enough power already' as he goes wild

Derek

2:34

How late is too late for the Twins? Are we there already?

Ben Clemens

2:34

I don't think we're there yet, but we're quickly headed that way

2:35

They have an entire outfield on the IL, too, so it's not as though they're likely to suddenly catch fire

I still feel fine about their team going forward, but this is just a BIG hill to climb

if they go, say, 3-7 in their next 10, it starts to be difficult mathematically

Dan

2:35

When you link other people's work in chat is that from a quick Google search or do you a collection of saved links to article you expect to want to reference?

Ben Clemens

2:36

This is maybe a little inside baseball, but it's a mixture of both

I keep a list of articles I frequently reference in my bookmarks

And frequently, that's what I suggest to people

Also, though, I have a pretty good memory for who wrote what

The two that I cited on times through the order aren't linked, I just remember them well

So I googled author + rough title

Aaron Judge

2:37

Everyone's striking out more but even with that one bad week, Judge's K rate is actually down pretty far compared to his career. Is he someone that the fact that more pitchers are throwing more strikes (with the new ball) might help?

Ben Clemens

2:38

I'm not sure if it's the new ball or not, but pitchers throwing more strikes is definitely good for Judge

I don't know if you've ever seen him, but he's strong

Is anything real

2:38

curious about your take on SSS. Take Williams Contreras. Little over 30 BIP but 7 barrels. Can you assume some barreling floor? 7 out of 50 (14%)?

Ben Clemens

2:39

I should do more work on reliability of barrel rates and such. It definitely becomes reliable quickly, but batters' true talent also seems to move around a lot, which makes it complicated

That's not a great answer for you, obviously

2:41

I don't think that assuming a barreling floor makes a ton of sense

Basically I just need to do more research before answering

Derek

2:41

Adames to the Reds seems to make a ton sense, no?

Ben Clemens

2:41

Yeah, Story and Adames have been and should continue to be linked to the Reds

2:42

Now that the Suarez at third experiment is mostly over (8 straight games at 3rd before playin short yday)

2:43

I think they will accept that Kyle Farmer is not the answer there

A bigger question is whether they act now, or wait until July to see if they're in the hunt

I'd argue in favor of acting now, and the Reds have been aggressive about trying to win now in recent years

Guest

2:43

Re: Story and Adames: Has the Reds' performance so far this season been encouraging enough to think they would actually be buyers at the deadline?

Ben Clemens

2:43

Right, exactly

2:44

I think it has been, honestly. But if they play Kyle Framer at short for two months while they wait and see, it might not be anymore!

Farmer*

Bart

2:44

what does SSS ?

Ben Clemens

2:44

oh, small sample size

BringBackDeSpanielHair

2:45

Ben!!! WTF do I do with Luis Castillo this week? 2 starts, in a points league, and against middling offenses, and I'm scared to death of the downside.

Ben Clemens

2:45

I think you have to ride with him even though it does not feel great at the moment