JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/18/20

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey guys, and welcome to the chat. I'm doing a bunch of OOTP trade research today, which will probably be an on and off topic, but there's also a ton to talk about in real baseball news, so let's try to cover as much as we can.

Szan Dymborski

2:00

I don't understand the meaning of the little chat preview blurb... Please elaborate on the poorly written joke

Ben Clemens

2:01

I'll refer you to a lovely piece that our Craig Edwards wrote:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/parsing-mlbs-claim-of-a-4-billion-loss/

Jeremy

2:02

What is the benefit of the proposed 14-team playoff (aside from being like the NFL)? A season where records feature more noise and are less based on true talent seems like the last time to give a big reward to the #1 seed.

Ben Clemens

2:02

Yeah, it doesn't exactly sync up. I think that the idea is that with a shorter time where fans can be interested, give more fans the playoffs.

But heck, just do 16 then.

Lucas

2:02

Should NL teams be placing more value on the all-bat no field backup catcher? I've always thought the value of having another good pinch hitter outweighed the 30-35 games they would have to play defense.

Follow up - are teams too reticent to pinch hit with their backup catcher? I feel like potential injury to a starter is the stated reason, but given the low rate that these injuries actually happen and the wealth of super athletic players on an MLB team (such that, anyone could play a good enough catcher for three innings) would suggest teams are too conservative

Ben Clemens

2:03

So these two questions kind of blend together

Teams are deffffffinitely too reticent to pinch hit with their backup catcher.

Not that pinch hitting with them is insanely valuable, but it's not *not* valuable, if you know what i mean

Teams should do it more, is the point.

2:04

But with 26 man rosters a new thing, I think a lot of teams will carry 2.5 or 3 catchers

2.5 being a guy who can get behind the plate if necessary

And that will kind of unlock pinch hitting with the catcher.

2:05

It's also somewhat meaningless this year -- teams are going to be 30 deep or whatever, so i'tll be fine.

Oakland_Fan2

2:05

What would it take for Josh Hader to be traded? He's under a very team friendly contract, and is the best reliever in the game. Do you think that a top prospect (e.g. Dylan Carlson) would make the Brewers trade him? I was going to try this on OOTP later today.

Ben Clemens

2:05

It's difficult to find the right value for him I think

Teams are just so reticent to give up a big piece for a reliever these days

2:06

I think Carlson is in the ballpark for Hader's value -- but I also think that both teams would have a lot of trouble agreeing to that deal.

It's weird, relievers have somewhat capped value from year to year, so even if you're getting a long string of team control, it's not in the concentrated doses that teams crave.

Mountie Votto

2:07

Who do you think the Reds are more likely to keep (for next season only): Bauer or DeSclafani? Obviously would likely be a one-year deal for Bauer and potential multi-year deal for Disco

Ben Clemens

2:07

DeSclafani by a bit. I think Bauer is increasing in likelihood with the new Driveline tie-ins they've been doing but the cost doesn't really feel up the Reds' alley to me.

I'd like to see it, particularly if there's no season this year or if they miss the playoffs, but I'm just not convinced they'd go for it.

Derek

2:09

After watching some Bundesliga this weekend, a thing I am very much looking forward to about baseball games being broadcast with no fans is being able to clearly hear what players are saying on the field (hopefully, assuming they don't change microphone setups). If a multilingual person (I'm pretty sure I heard at least 3 languages, and probably more) was watching any of those soccer games, I'm sure there was some very interesting conversation to be heard!

Ben Clemens

2:09

Haha yeah I don't understand Korean, but it's clear that that will also happen in baseball if they don't pipe in crowd noise.

It was quite cool to hear dugout chatter.

2:10

After a quick pitch I could completely understand the dugout razzing the opposing pitcher

Even without knowing the words.

Itw as awesome

The Stranger

2:10

Not having read MLB’s full protocol for reopening play, does it address the circumstances under which players who were in contact with a player who tests positive will also be isolated as a precaution? Or does it appear that as long as they test negative and have no symptoms they’ll be on the field?

Ben Clemens

2:10

The second is the case as far as I can tell from reading it, though I'll add that they will all be tested as well

2:11

As soon as there's a positive test.

There'll be contact tracing that will allow that.

So I suppose it depends how quick the turnaround on the tests is, but theoretically if someone tests positive, then no one they were in contact with will be playing until they test negative.

Derek

2:11

Has the likelihood of a coming work stoppage materially increased in the last week or two, or does it just feel that way?

Ben Clemens

2:12

I think it just feels that way. It really does feel that way! But honestly, I think a lot of this tension has been there under the surface.

The owners didn't really go against their recent type -- they're agitating for lower player salaries using the media, using Manfred, using their own actions, using the draft, whatever

2:13

If I told you in 2019 the owners would come up with some silly reason they're 'losing money' and 'can't pay the players' in 2020

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