JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/18/20

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Ben Clemens

2:43

ughhhhhhhhh

the Electrician

2:43

One benefit of a fan-less environment could be more mic'd player banter. It could be a way for the league to build star power. Obviously there's a lot of risk (Sam Darnold talking about ghosts) for guys to say regrettable things, but assuming its not a live feed, could we get some Hard Knocks like content?

Ben Clemens

2:43

Yes!

Quarantino Martinez

2:43

I wanted to root for the LG Twins, but am worried about them killing people in India. What say you?

Ben Clemens

2:43

Ughhhhh I say that global capitalism sucks and makes it impossible to ever have any fun.

I don't want to spoil the good place, but, watch that?

2:44

I don't know how to handle this ethical dilemma. There is a real argument that there's no ethical consumption under capitalism, and I don't know what the heck you're supposed to do about that.

John

2:44

Yermin Mercedes hype train Y/N

Ben Clemens

2:44

I mean, try to imagine a worse team for him to be on.

I'll wait.

2:45

But hell yeah! Love catchers who can hit

Maybe he's just a DH, but again, the White Sox aren't swimming in at-bats for that kind of guy

But he'll work somewhere

Dave

2:46

David Dahl had his spleen removed in 2015. That compromises his immune system and puts him in the high risk category for COVID-19. Can you think of any other MLB players that might be high risk and for what reason?

Ben Clemens

2:46

Jon Lester battled non-Hodgkin's lymphoma

Trey Mancini is currently battling cancer.

2:47

I don't know what all conditions people have but there are PLENTY of pre-existing health conditions players have that aren't serious enough that we've heard about it

Realistic Pessimist

2:47

Multiple tests will need to be performed on players each time they are tested to try as best as possible to avoid any false positive/negative results. One false negative and the entire team can go down on the QL.

Ben Clemens

2:47

A lot depends on the Type 1 and Type 2 errors of the tests.

Also on whether the errors are random or whether they are systematic biases

2:48

If they're systematic, like if a given non-COVID antibody will always trigger a positive test even if the player doesn't have COVID, two tests won't work

I'm not a medical testing expert so this is a place where I'm willing to listen to them.

Hank

2:48

It seems that benefit of expanded rosters/more RP totally contradicts the 3 batter minimum rule. Any chance they can get rid of that rule or is it a guaranteed done deal? Do people really care now if the games are a little longer?

Ben Clemens

2:48

I think it's a done deal. I actually like it; restrictions breed creativity

2:49

It's not really strategy if you just fly your LOOGY out there every time a lefty is up

Give me some risk/reward

I used to be against the rule as being inelegant until I thought about it more.

But while I still think it's inelegant, I love the idea that it's forcing a manager to make a decision with real stakes.

2:50

If there'a an always-optimal play, even if that play requires more actions, it's not actually an interesting decision

the Electrician

2:50

Could a portion of all player salaries be deferred down the road, where the players are still guaranteed to receive the amount they are contractually owed, but not until an agreed upon date (a year later, rolling, I dunno) where the industry gets a chance to start rolling again?

Ben Clemens

2:50

Yeah, I think this is a very good idea for a compromise.

And it actually has some good economics to it as well.

2:51

Basically the players are likely to want to invest their money in some safe, risk-free way (I think)

While teams borrow money at a risky rate

Maybe BBB+ or something.

So there's some rate where the players don't care about deferrals and it saves the owners money.

It's a clever little credit arb, too: the players are implicitly bearing credit risk from teams already.

2:52

So bearing more isn't a huge deal, particularly if they can get a little compensated for it. Meanwhile, the team saves some money on its future obligations b/c it can offer the players, say, T-Bills +1% instead of something 100s of bps higher

2:53

I honestly don't get why more teams don't do some type of contract deferrals.

It's a win/win as far as I'm concerned if you make the economics work

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