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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/2/22

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JaysFanInLondon

2:16

Does lineup protection really make a difference. I hear alot of broadcasters talking about how Vladdy is getting nothing to hit because Hernandez is injured, but is it not more about the fact that he has not been laying off those pitches this year as well as he did last season?

Ben Clemens

2:17

I like this question quite a bit, but I'm afraid my answer might be unsatisfying. There's no evidence it exists, but htat doesn't mean it doesn't, and it certainly doesn't mean that it can't get in some players' heads

Cardsfan

2:17

Brewers a 100 win team this year?

Ben Clemens

2:18

Nah. The offense just isn't there. The pitching is great, it might be better than expected even, but even when they were torching the Cubs over the weekend (my wife was at one of the games so I watched quite a bit of them) I felt the Sunday shutout coming

It's just too hard to win 100 games 3-2

Guest

2:19

At what point do you send down Kelenic?

Ben Clemens

2:19

I'm kinda divided on this one. If I were going to start benching him more often, I'd send him down right this minute

2:20

But the M's are still playing him mostly every day. I'd lean towards sending him down for a month or something, just letting him demolish some baseballs and get his head right, because there's just a hole in his bat right now and I think it almost *has* to be mental

2:21

He has a zone contact rate below 70%. That's... like it just doesn't make sense. That's sub-bad-Gallo

Chip Locke

2:21

Any thoughts on Jose Miranda? Seems like he may be able to run away with an everyday job considering Sano's performance and injury

Ben Clemens

2:22

My thoughts on Jose Miranda: he's awesome and he's going to hit a ton. I definitely think he could take the job. I think he's realllllllly good. It's probably going to be path-dependent, but if he starts out on a hot streak, I don't see him losing the job

Update: I had to switch from the Royals broadcast to the Cardinals' one

Golan Norman

2:23

Do you think Hicks sticks in the rotation the whole season (barring injury)? I worry that his arsenal is a little shallow

Ben Clemens

2:24

I'm not sure, but I'm pleasantly surprised by the early returns on the experiment. You can't control him getting hit in the arm with a line drive, and his control remains scattershot, but I think he's looked pretty good, the breaking ball looks nice dialed down a few ticks, and if he can throw his changeup more (it was a plus pitch when he was a prospect but he's understandably been mainly a two-pitch guy in the majors) I think the arsenal is fine

2:25

The real test, for me, is whether he'll ever be able to throw 80 pitches in a game at his velo levels. It doesn't look like he's straining at all but he just hasn't done it in a long time, you know?

PBS Jr.

2:25

Were there signs that Eric Lauer was about to become this? I traded him in a keeper league in June last year and I really don't think I missed anything, but would be a much better manager if you showed me where I went wrong.

Ben Clemens

2:26

I still don't understand how he's doing it. I was going to write about him last week, and the more I looked, the more confused I got, to the point where I just scrapped the article and wrote about, I dunno, walks or someone who's great at hitting line drives or something?

H.G.

2:26

Remember last year when the Cubs talk radio guy said the White Sox would need to offer more than Dylan Cease to pry Joc Pederson on an expiring contract at the deadline? No question. Thanks for the chat!

Ben Clemens

2:26

I know this is a 'radio analysts and their crazy ideas' dig, but I thikn it's pretty remarkable how much Cease has changed his fortune, and changed the shape of his fastball to do so

2:27

In 2020, he was kinda bad. He just couldn't miss any bats. And then he turned it into a prototypical rising fastball incredibly quickly

Sir Nerdlington

2:27

Announcers are so much a part of my fandom. How do I engage with my team when I don't love the team's play by play guy?

Ben Clemens

2:29

It's a really tough question, and I sympathize with you. I can't exactly tell you what I'd do, because I hop around between everyone's games and so listen to all the crews quite a bit, but I'd say two things are helpful: baseball is still really fun, and even the play-by-play guys who just think modern players all suck still have great player anecdotes

2:30

The job is incredibly hard, and every announcing team in baseball delivers neat little team tidbits you'd never get without listening to them. So even if you're not a big fan of their style, I think you can appreciate the game nonetheless

Tacoby Bellsbury

2:30

On mute, Sir Nerdlington. On mute.

Ben Clemens

2:31

There's this too

brad penny for your thoughts

2:31

Ryan Helsley has negative FIP

Ben Clemens

2:31

I am writing about Helsley for tomorrow (or maybe Wednesday, we'll see, under-promise and over-deliver etc.). He's, uh, reallllly good

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:31

Taking into account the fact that it's early May, does Justin Turner's hard hit ball profile cratering worry you at all? He's been a 40 glove in the field the past couple of years, I just wonder if the age is finally catching up with him.

Ben Clemens

2:33

I'm worried. I'm not sure I have a good analytical reason to be as worried as I am, but when everything goes downhill all at once, that feels to me like a talent level change. It's not like he's getting unlucky on balls in play, or just affected by the new ball -- he's hitting it less hard, striking out more, walking less, popping it up more when he manages to get the ball in the air, getting the ball in the air less... he's also swinging way more, and kinda looks like he's pressing

2:34

I just feel like when so many things go wrong at once, maybe some of them can be flukes, but probably not all of them

Jordan

2:34

What are your thoughts on the Blue Jays? They've kept their heads above water in spite of a very hard schedule

Ben Clemens

2:35

I'd feel good about the team if I were them. I'd probably continue to be worried about outfield depth -- they're playing Raimel Tapia quite a bit, which is not what you'd like to see from a playoff team -- but their starting pitching has had a bumpy start, they've had injuries and a tough schedule, and they're still winning

Cobie

2:35

I'm disapointed in Bichette so far, any reason for optimism other than he probably figures it out because he's good?

Ben Clemens

2:36

On that topic: he'll probably figure it out because he's good, but until my recent swing decision looks, I didn't realize that he has a pretty iffy approach at the plate

2:37

He's making less contact this year and I think that's driving a lot of his issues

Because he swings so much that he puts pressure on himself to make contact

Matthew from LA

2:37

Did the Rockies have a sneaky solid offseason?

Ben Clemens

2:38

I think that people misunderstand how solid offseasons work. Like, everyone was bashing the Kris Bryant signing, and haha, amazing, those dumb Rockies, learn math, etc

And you can say they let a lot of talent leave and mishandled Jon Gray's contract status, that's all true

2:39

But uh, they got some good players, I like Chad Kuhl in general, and I think it's just so easy to dunk on the Rockies that people tend to underrate them

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