JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/20/24

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/20/24

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Ben Clemens

2:41

Oof, this is tough b/c I really like watching Lee play but Matos would be my pick out of that trio if I didn't consider position

2:42

I guess I'll say Luciano b/c I'm tired of the Giants shuffling through meh shortstops

SH, Jr.

2:42

Does the game actually suffer meaningfully if injuries and optimization morph the traditional SP role into a longer-long reliever? Naturally player comp will have to evolve but what’s the aesthetic harm to baseball, really, of every game being a bullpen game?

vomit

1

Ben Clemens

2:42

I mean, aesthetic arguments are necessarily subjective

but when I ask my non-baseball-fan friends, or semi-attached-fan friends, what they dislike about baseball

2:43

it's that when they turn on the game, there's a good chance that the pitcher is someone random they don't care about

it's not the ONLY thing but it's just up there

BrewCrew

2:43

Since his days with the Braves, what has changed about William Contreras? His Atlanta numbers seemed to suggest a catcher with good power, OK hit tool, and OK defensive chops – the kind of guy you give up to get Sean Murphy. While we know what the Brewers do with catchers defensively, his hit tool has looked absolutely elite over the past year plus -- and somehow this was either just flat out missed by evaluators or has developed in a major way over that time

Ben Clemens

2:43

I think developed, but just so we're clear, his wRC+ as a Brewer is lower than it was in 2022 on the Braves

2:44

yeah the defensive value, that seems very much to be a Brewers thing

but like, he was a GREAT hitter in 2022, and worse than that in '23. He's on a heater to start 2024. I still wouldn't project him for better than a 130 wrC+ going forward I don't think (ZiPS and Steamer are around 135 for wh at it's worth)

Ralphie

2:44

RE: Shota, how much do you think was misevaluation by the league and how much is his profile different given HRs are down

Ben Clemens

2:45

Well, I thought that he was the bargain signing of the offseason before the year started

so I definitely think that there was some league misevaluation/sliding doors situation going on here

like, plenty of teams who got different pitchers would have been in on Imanaga if they knew what he'd sign for, but they went in different directions

2:46

but yes, his profile had one obvious weakness, homers

turn the homer knob down, and well, he just looks great

André René Roussimoff

2:46

How much of the massive strikeout spike of recent years is launch angle and hunting for HRs and how much of it is pitchers just being awesome? I know it's not easy to quantify, but which is more responsible?

Ben Clemens

2:47

I think it's more pitching, particularly since I think a lot of hitters' behavior has been influenced by the fact that pitchers are so hard to hit now that you better be making it count when you do make contact

Rob Manfred

2:47

Hi Ben, who would you rather have ROS in an OPS league..Andy Pages or Davis Schneider?

Ben Clemens

2:47

Schneider

Yankeesfan

2:47

What do the Yankees do when Cole comes back?go 6 deep on the rotation? Boot nasty Nestor to the pen?

Ben Clemens

2:47

I think they'll go to a six man rotation for a while

2:48

And then bump whoever is doing the worst at the end of that to the rotation?

I guess that's Nestor right now but my moeny would be on Schmidt, I just can't quite buy him as a consistent starter still

Weekend Hack

2:48

what makes ty france a plus bat

Ben Clemens

2:49

his 4 consecutive years of better-than-average offense and career 115 wRC+

now, could he have gotten way worse over the winter and just be bad now? absolutely

but uh, that

Idiotic Failson

2:49

Would you give Gleyber the QO, and do you think he should take it?

Ben Clemens

2:50

I would, and I do not think he should

Guest?!

2:50

Will we come to view pitcher injuries in MLB the same way the NFL had to deal with concussions?

Ben Clemens

2:50

Um, no way

one is a LOT worse for you long term

Matt Damon

2:50

MATT. DAMON.

Okra

2:50

Corbin Carroll has hit a ton of IFFB this season (15 vs 19 all last year) which probably explains his drop in EV. Apart that and some bad luck I don't see much to explain his struggles. Do you think he turns it around?

Ben Clemens

2:50

Okay, rare Ben hot take alert

I think that 2023 will either be Carroll's best or second best season

2:51

I think he's a LOT better than what he's done so far in 2024, of course

but I'm terrified of his shoulder exploding

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