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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/4/20

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Ben Clemens

2:24

I'm far more worried about what would happen if someone on a team's staff tests positive

2:26

But yes, it's a serious concern. I think that getting a ton of testing is a big first step. And then they'll need contact tracing to be perfect for everyone involved.

Curtis

2:26

I love baseball. I'm not sure how I feel about baseball having more Corona tests available to their players and staff than the rest of the population. Is that a concern or should I just acknowledge that the population is never served equally or equitably?

Ben Clemens

2:26

Definitely a concern. It's an interesting space -- having sports really is valuable in a morale sense, in a way that I didn't completely understand before. But if those tests could be going to doctors instead, yeah, not that valuable.

2:27

I think one thing that's worth thinking about is the exponential nature of test availability. Like if baseball needs let's say 10 million tests, that sounds crazy right now. But two months ago, there were no tests, and now the US has performed 20 tests per 1000 people roughly.

2:29

Mobilizing and re-purposing test creation took a lot of time.

I can see a way where the tests aren't really limiting by the time baseball is up and running again.

It's a lot different than when the entire Utah Jazz organization was getting tested in early March.

Guest

2:29

Is there any easy access to statistical data like wrc+ and .iso etc.. in table format for the players or league

Ben Clemens

2:30

My friend, you're in luck. Josh Herzenberg of the Lotte Giants pointed this great resource out to me.

http://www.statiz.co.kr/main.php

Is it in Korean? You bet!

But fire up Google Translate and it has everything you want.

wRC+, WAR, the world is your oyster

Curtis

2:30

If hitting generally gets hotter in the hotter months, do we see a spike in BA if MLB starts in the South in July?

Ben Clemens

2:30

Very likely.

2:31

If you look at studies that control for temperature, hitters are ahead of the game at the start of the season, and the cold weather is what holds offense down in April.

So it's even more of an effect than just getting only July-Sep stats, which are already good for hitting.

Guest

2:31

SWEET! thanks so much man

Ben Clemens

2:31

Yeah I have to give complete credit to Josh for that one. It's awesome!

Chris

2:31

Who are some of your last rounds fantasy baseball sleepers you like this year?

Ben Clemens

2:32

Keeping the Korean theme going: I dunno where he's going any more, but Kwang-Hyun Kim is a favorite of mine in fantasy.

He could be a number three starter or better I think

And he's going for $1 in auctions or very late in snake drafts.

I'm into Adrian Houser too.

2:33

Those are my two favorites, but I don't mind Kevin Cron either -- he's a starter if they go universal DH and he rakes.

MSW

2:33

If you're lonely, now is the perfect time to adopt an indoor cat. Kitten season is starting and cat rescues are in a tough spot because most spay/neuter clinics are closed. Adopting from your local rescue will go a long way towards helping them keep more kittens from growing up on the street and becoming feral.

Ben Clemens

2:33

Several of my friends have adopted cats. A few others have adopted dogs. Adopting a pet is always a great thing to do, and particularly so at the moment.

Guest

2:34

Lately I have been studying the draft. Are spending first round picks on high schoolers as risky as they used to be?

Ben Clemens

2:35

I haven't done a ton of looking at this, but my guess would be that they have become less risky. Teams just have a lot better data now than they used to.

One of the big issues with drafting high school players was always that there just wasn't enough data. But as you find stuff that teams believe is more signal and less noise (spin rates, mechanical stuff that can be measured, various stuff like that)

You can get a cleaner read.

Draft bust rates are going down in general.

Dunning-Kruger on the right

2:36

When do you suppose ESPN will get around to DLing guys like Sale that have undergone surgery and clearly out for 2020?

Ben Clemens

2:36

I think the transaction freeze might affect this.

So whenever that is lifted, I think it'll happen.

Derek

2:36

I am suuuuuuper tempted to stay up and watch the KBO tonight (from the east coast), but after accidentally staying up until like 3:30 last night finishing up the most recent Expanse book, I'm not sure if I can pull that off two nights in a row...

Ben Clemens

2:36

I just started it! Love me a little Expanse.

Jeff

2:36

It's great, going great. The cat has a backstory in which he was a great warrior for his people. His family was slaughtered, he was exiled (how we met), but his people still long for his return as the one cat who will stand and fight ...that's the basics

Ben Clemens

2:37

That's a hell of a cat.

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