JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/5/25

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Ben Clemens

2:39

that would make him an All Star catcher, basiaclly

Brad

2:40

Can Judge's peak be in the conversation with Bonds peak?

GA Blood

2:40

Is Judge's contract going to go down as the best FA deal ever?

Ben Clemens

2:40

I mean, isn't it already in the conversation?

as for the deal, yeah, right now I have to say it's the best deal ever

Peak

2:41

So, barring another Dodger wall (and he will play there this year), Judge is basically going to have secured a HOF career (broadly 60ish war to have a good case) within his best 7 years. Are people going to draft trying to find him or realize he's just 1 of 1?

Ben Clemens

2:41

I don't think they're going to try to draft the next Aaron Judge b/c that's just not possible

but I do think that teams are more interested in Judge-frame prospects now because he's shown that there are very high end outcomes that are'nt just all power

Lord Thunder

2:42

LAD's Muncy has had bad starts before, but usually heats up by now. How much of leash does he have to stay in the lineup?

Steve O

2:44

T/F the mets will be disappointed if Juan Soto is a 5ish WAR 150ish wRC+ player moving forward and not the 8 WAR monster he was last year.

Ben Clemens

2:44

I'm going to answer these separately but I put them both up at once because I think they're different situations that look kind of similar on the surface

2:46

Muncy, I'm pretty worried here

2:47

He's 34, and the way he's failing is the way you'd expect Max Muncy to fail

2:48

I'm sure teh Dodgers have more visibility into this than me but this looks bad! the skills that don't seem likely to age, his plate discipline, are'nt aging

it's his ability to hit the ball hard that is

2:49

and he's such an extreme fly ball pull hitter that if his quality ticks below 'lift a bunch of these homers out' then the plate discipline isn't going to keep him afloat

I think that ti's reasonable to give him more time b/c the Dodgers are playing so well that they can afford to, and we know he's capable of being good

but.... I'd be willing to cut bait if it looks like this in a month

or at least, turn him into a backup

2:50

as for Soto, I think that the Mets would be a bit disappointed if he ended up as a career 150 wRC+ guy but not gutted

that's a really good hitter! That'd be like, top 5 in baseball over the last 5 years, give or take

2:51

behind Judge, Soto, Alvarez, Ohtani, and Trout/Freeman depending on exacxtly what number you're looking for

they're at 155 and 153

Jeff

2:51

Any concern with McLain in cincy? Is he in danger of losing his job?

Ben Clemens

2:52

no huge concern from me. probably not gonna keep up his .207 BABIP. I'm encouraged that he's walking more, though obviously the strikeouts are bad

he's hitting the ball hard though! better batted ball data than his excellent debut year

2:53

also he's probably going to strike out less gonig forward. He has a lower chase rate and lower first strike rate than he did in 2023

Bullock

2:53

All five pitches Jack Leiter throws have above average Stuff+, but he struggles to strike guys out. Am I crazy to think that if he can develop even a little more command he would quickly get really good? Or I'm just wishcasting...

Ben Clemens

2:53

well, if you're wrong you're in good company, I'm perpetually in on Leiter

I feel like stuff models have overrated him for a while, and I can't quite figure out why

2:54

like, same deal in college, I was in love with his fastball, and it just hasn't played as well as I thought it would

there's some Jackson Jobe to him, too

great pitcher on paper but hitters have little trouble timing him

Bullock

2:54

Is "that guy's just a slow starter" a real thing? It's said a lot about Santander, but I'm worried

Ben Clemens

2:54

I think it's a real thing but I don't have a study I can point to to prove it

Gil

2:54

Your Aaron Judge response on his contract has me thinking: Was A-Rod's first deal akin to Soto's? In other words, A-Rod had to perform to the level he did because his deal set the market in a way that no other player had to that point. Therefore, even though he was basically MVP level throughout, A-Rod's couldn't be the best deal, right?

Ben Clemens

2:55

yeah, that's how I think of A Rod's deal exactly

2:55

Does anyone know if there’s a way to find team defensive metrics with a certain pitcher on the mound?

Ben Clemens

2:55

there sure is!

Statcast's OAA leaderboard lets you do it by team, player, hitter, or pitcher

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