JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/6/24

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/6/24

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everyone, let's get chatting

Brian

2:01

Last week someone asked for your thoughts on the Juan Soto trade and you responded with regards to the Soto to the Yankees trade. I initially thought that the question was referring to the Soto to the Padres trade so I will ask - what are your thoughts today on the Soto to Padres trade?

Ben Clemens

2:01

Oh, maybe that makes more sense. I thought that it was a smart trade by the Padres and a fair price to pay for Soto, but included in my calculation was that they might get a slight heads up on an extension, and I was probably too low on CJ Abrams in retrospect

2:02

I didn't think they ripped the Nats off or anything, this isn't Mookie Betts for three bags of baseballs, but it's pretty clear that you have to pay a premium to get guys who concentrate WAR like Soto

I had him top 10 in trade value that season and the Padres paid like he was top 10 in trade value

Kwanbelievable

2:03

Are you sticking with your prediction of the last day the Guardians being in first in the AL on June 3rd now that Kwan is likely on the IL? Or does the presumptive addition of Manzardo mitigate Kwan's absence?

Ben Clemens

2:03

Yeah, I'm a Manzardo believer so I'll stick with it

George Springer

2:03

Projections still think I’m pretty good, but I haven’t been playing well for a while. What do you expect of me going forward, stats-wise?

Ben Clemens

2:03

I'm out, to be honest

2:04

I've watched a good number of Jays games this year and I think that something is wrong. Maybe it's injury, who knows

But my expectations are that Springer is kind of a platoon bat and no more until I see more evidence to the contrary

Sturge Florgman

2:04

The result from a replay challenge is one of three things: overturned (the call on the field was wrong), confirmed (we can confirm that the umpires made the right call), or the call stands (replay can neither confirm nor deny). Would it make things interesting at all were there to be a rule change such that if you challenge a call and the result is "call stands" (rather than confirmed), you don't lose your challenge?

Ben Clemens

2:04

I mean.... I don't think we need more interest in challenges

2:05

I think they should be there to overturn obviously wrong calls, and I think the system does a good job of that

I like that they'll initiate replays without a challenge remaining if it's late and important, too

Honestly i think MLB does challenges better than the NBA (idiotic, extensive, frequently on judgment calls) and the NFL (I'm so tired of hearing what is and isn't a catch)

2:06

Some of that is because baseball is just more amenable to challenges, though

Grandal Richuk

2:06

Cardinals.....bad.

Ben Clemens

2:06

My goodness, the series against the White Sox was bad

having the B team in the booth really made it worse too

laughing

1

(I watched a LOT of baseball this weekend b/c my wife was out of town and our dog has separation anxiety so I was home most of the time)

Broken Bat

2:06

Who woukd you rather have Rafeala or Rojas of Phillies?

Ben Clemens

2:06

Rafaela for me

Mets

2:06

Christian Scott the Mets best starter already? He’s the only starter that throws strikes consistently, has 70 command and his fastball and sweeper look great. I like Severino but I think Scott is likely better.

Ben Clemens

2:06

mmmmmmmm

2:07

we're excluding Senga, I assume

I guess yes? I'm pretty hyped at the very least

Bob

2:07

Do you think the Brewers can win a World Series in the next ten years?

Ben Clemens

2:07

Yeah, for sure

2:08

I continue to htink they're an excellently run team, and I think that even when they do things like trade Corbin Burnes (obviously, I don't like trading great players when you're competing), it's for good reason and their plan on the return makes sense

If I were just a homer Cards fan, it would be very frustrating that Milwaukee is run so well

but instead I just love seeing all baseball teams do smart stuff, and the Brewers are incredibly fun too

I won't put out any top chef spoilers here but the last episode was at Miller Park

it ruled

Guest

2:09

Can you explain what a negative FIP means? I read somewhere that Mason Miller had that this year

Ben Clemens

2:09

So, FIP is an ERA estimator that works pretty well in the aggregate

strikeouts are correlated with lower ERA's, but it's kind of non-linear

like if you struck out 95% of opponents, going to 100% of opponents wouldn't really help you

2:10

but FIP is just linear, so if you have enough strikeouts per innings, you can have a negative FIP. all it really means is that Miller is striking out so many opposing hitters, and conceding so few walks and homers, that he breaks the relationship a little bit

Phil

2:10

Who do you think will be the better emergency fill-in first baseman, Garrett Cooper or Dom Smith?

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