JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/6/24

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Ben Clemens

2:59

I think Bo would fetch a haul, though I don't think they're trading him

Gausman would be an interesting high impact arm, i think you'd get a lot back

3:00

Vlad.... I mean, is he better than Luis Arraez?

Serious question

3:01

I'm thinking no, to be honest. It's hard for me to have a lot of confidence that he'll meaningfully outproduce Arraez's offensive output going forward, they're both 0's defensively, and he's making twice as much

so like, I don't think they are getting anything back

G0 Fish?????????

3:01

Excluding Soto. It seems like the Friars epic off-season dealing didn't work out too bad, Hader, and Snell look awful, and Higashioka, and Randy Vasquez are pretty good (although Jhony Brito is terrible)

Ben Clemens

3:01

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play

Colton

3:01

I've missed you Matt Damon, welcome back

Ben Clemens

3:01

Love to have old friends back

Sad Marlins Fan

3:02

Do you think the lack of a salary cap/floor is helpful or harmful to the league?

Ben Clemens

3:02

I think it's harmful

cap/floor systems with more integrated revenue sharing models do a great job of enforcing competitive balance

that said, I understand why they don't have one

owners aren't really interested in adding a floor because they've done a very good job of instituting a de facto cap already, so they're not getting a ton more from a hard cap

3:03

and on the other hand, I think defining revenue is trickier for baseball than for most sports b/c of the local TV and gate revenue model, so figuring out how to define floors is quite hard

3:04

you can imagine the players agreeing to a cap/floor system 10 years ago, seeing it not go up as much as it should, and having total compensation to players be much lwoer for the same amount of revenue in the game. I get why they're hesitant

it's one of those issues where I think that if we had a baseball czar who could set the rules dispassionately, it'd be great. But we don't have one of those, and given the existing interests, the right solution is probably just to stick with the existing system

bosoxforlife

3:05

I had some belief in the Red Sox pitching before the season started but this has shocked even this old diehard fan. Is Andrew Bailey this good or is the fan about to get in the way?

Ben Clemens

3:05

I really don't know!

The Red Sox pitching this year is definitely the great mystery of the year

I thought that 1 or maybe 2 of Houck/Crawford/Whitlock would pan out as starters

3:06

and I mean, I suppose I was kind of right, but I didn't mean two would pan out like this

so I would not give myself much credit at all

and Cooper Criswell? I mean, wow

I don't think that either Houck or Crawford is a sustianable ace-level pitcher, still

3:07

I think they're both pretty good, though, and I've bumped up my estimation of both. One thing that I've always struggled with is how much of that credit to give to the player and how much to the org, as it relates to future performance expectations

like, should I expect Nick Pivetta to have a sub-3 ERA b/c the other dudes have gotten better too?

I don't know and it has me very interested in watching the Sox the rest of the way to find out

Connor

3:08

Also re: trading Gausman, where's the Kikuchi love? He's been the better pitcher since last June

Ben Clemens

3:08

I think teams would send more in return for Gausman just for the track record, and might be a little hesitant to send a bag for Kikuchi b/c it feels less permanent. But yes, he's been great

I loved seeing him gas up to face Ohtani, I think he threw all of his hardest pitches in his career, or at least something close to that

Okra

3:09

Prediction: 2019 gave us the rabbit ball and 2024 will be the anti rabbit ball and have everyone regretting thinking average pitchers were breaking out

Ben Clemens

3:09

I don't think we're back to 2014 baseballs or anything but yeah

the home run rate decline is a very real reason for a lot of pitchers' improvement, and it has me focusing more on K/BB stuff than ERA and FIP

Guest

3:09

Only a month into the season, and I am sick of the Dodgers already. They're worse than the Yankees at the height of their "Evil Empire" days, and their sense of entitlement is obnoxious. What can I do to make baseball fun instead of repulsive this year?

Ben Clemens

3:10

Oh man, I have many options. Pick a fun young team and follow them instead of hate-watching the Dodgers. Ignore the rest of the Dodgers and just watch Mookie Betts, who I think is delightful

Listen to good broadcasters

Celebrate Jared Jones Day

Guest

3:10

Reds just toast? Their offense looks putrid.

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