JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/8/23

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/8/23

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Ben Clemens

2:36

I am interested in seeing Bleday hit a little bit more, but I'm buying in the abstract

2:37

Good prospect who lost a bit of shine in '21 but looked like he was mostly back to hitting in '22, we were down on him prospect-wise b/c he struggles with high heat but well, a lot of major leaguers do

I think that taking bets on guys like him is smart

Could he fail? Most definitely

Bill Spiers

2:37

Do you expect St Louis to aggressively pursue some controllable starting pitching with their overload of OFers (and perhaps Gorman) around the deadline even if they are out of it?

Ben Clemens

2:37

Honestly, no

2:38

They just don't do that

Should they? Yeah

But their move is trading for established stars before their walk year and getting them to sign extensions

I'm not really sure what controllable pitchers who are good enough to move the needle will be available, anyway

Krusty

2:38

Two questions are that pretty interconnected:

How worried should I be about Max Scherzer? and
When should I start to be worried that this is more than just a funk for the Mets?

Ben Clemens

2:39

Few Mets questions today, I'll answer this one because it encompasses most of what people have been asking

I'm officially very worried about Scherzer

2:40

Maybe he's hurt and not saying anything, but he doesn't look crisp at all

He's giving up an absolute ton of hard contact and not missing any bats

2:41

I'm also worried about Senga's command, which was the worry about him coming into the year

Like even in his great start on Friday.... four walks four k's

2:42

So given those two things, I have downgraded my estimation of the Mets. Pitching depth was a worry, and they've had some rough luck there - Quintana, Verlander, Scherzer looks banged up, Senga doesn't seem as good as expected

Whaley

2:42

Have we see the last of Franmil Reyes? Couldn’t make in in KC. Oakland ? No way he’s 27!

Ben Clemens

2:42

Yeah, I have no idea whatsoever on the second point, but I think he's cooked

Tim

2:42

Anything underlying with Tork that could show him taking a step forward? It sure seems like he hasn’t been able to make the adjustments quite yet.

Ben Clemens

2:43

Nothing I've noticed. The Tigers young hitters just continue to look lost in the bigs, and that's worrisome at this point

Rob Deer Zone

2:43

Tristan Cases is being allowed to wildly flail around in the Red Sox line-up. His .163 average (in 112 PA) would make Rob Deer and Chris Davis blush. Do the Sox leave him up to keep flailing? For how long?

Ben Clemens

2:44

I'm.... honestly I'm less pessimistic on Casas than I thought I'd be

2:45

He strikes out too much, but I don't think that's gonna keep going, he's got decent strike zone judgment and doesn't have crazy contact issues. He has a .186 BABIP, and some of that is that he's hitting way too many pop ups, but to be clear, he has three infield fly balls this year, it's not some ghastly number

2:46

He's always gonna be a feast or famine offensive guy, but I don't think he's done much to change a long-term projection this year. Now, if the Sox are worried about his confidence, that's a different thing

2:47

I think that teams do a generally good job of handling player confidence and that people like me often underestimate how important that is

But that's where I'd be most concerned. He's not striking out 40% of the time or anything. Let the kid play

Lily

2:47

Is the awfulness of the AL Central small sample size, a fluke, or evidence that the division system needs to change?

Ben Clemens

2:47

Those are the only three answers?

I'd say none of the above. Regardless of how you feel about hte division system, it's not going away

2:48

But it's not small sample size or a fluke, those are five bad teams

J

2:48

Lars Nootbar currently has a 64% gb rate and negative launch angle. Do these things stabilize, or are more fly balls just an adjustment away?

Ben Clemens

2:48

An adjustment away, and I'd add that he hasn't really played enough to think much of his stats yet, good or bad

he has fewer games played than the Cardinals have losses

HappyFunBall

2:48

FWIW, Juan Soto's a career 166 wRC+ against RHP and is putting up a 161 so far this season. He's getting annihilated by LHP (49 this year vs 121 career). It's not that he's broken, it's that he's a platoon guy at the moment.

Ben Clemens

2:49

I've heard this a few times, and BP had a good article about how he's struggling with sweepers, but I'd just like to remind everyone that he's faced 55 lefties this year, it's hardly a stable statistic

JK

2:49

I read on Baseball America about the Giants "learning the wrong lessons from 2021", in that their success was actually due to stars (Belt, Crawford, Posey, Webb, Gausman) performing and then they were able to supplement around the roster well, but have now taken the second part of that too far and not been able to replicate the first. What is your reaction to that take?

Ben Clemens

2:49

Interesting definition of stars, but I generally agree

2:50

I think Belt and Crawford were squarely post-stardom and then got rejuvenated, and I do think the Giants were right to lean into that

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