JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/9/22

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Ben Clemens

2:12

It takes FOREVER for pitcher ability to even out

That's why we don't do it

2:13

I mean, we could just use wins and losses for WAR. That's wins on the field in the purest way. Or record in games where a pitcher pitched, or whatnot. But we all know the noise is too high. It's all just a matter of how much noise you're willing to accept vs. how abstracted from literally 'did the team win' you're willing to go

Appa Yip Yip

2:13

Santiago Espinal is rocking a .348 wOBA with a .372 xwOBA with a much more sustainable BABIO than he used to have. What's going on here?

Ben Clemens

2:14

He's big!

2:15

I don't actually know how much that matters. Let me say this: I still think he's a roughly average to above average hitter. But I think he has excellent defense, and I think that his kind of game gets overshadowed a bit less with less lively balls, so I think he should be a good player going forward. But I don't think the offense is going to continue at that rate

I have been an Espinal fan for a while, so maybe take this all with a grain of salt, but I think he'll still have more WAR than Matt Chapman at the end of the season, at least on a per-PA basis

Derek

2:15

Randy Arozarena has been worth -4.0 runs on the basepaths this season!??

Ben Clemens

2:16

He's, uh, a voracious baserunner

2:17

I don't think he always makes great baserunning decisions, which is nothing new. Stealing home looks really smart when you pull it off and really bad when you don't. I don't think he's actually this bad on the basepaths, but the guy makes a lot of outs that he doesn't need to, and he just doesn't take enough extra bases to make up for it

Bettsbellingercaruso

2:17

It’s funny how our perceptions of players can easily differ w the same wrc+ with the dead balls.

mookie has a 137 wrc+ with a .801 OPS. He had a 135 wrc+ in 2019 with a .915 OPS lmfao. Dead balls

Ben Clemens

2:18

The balls: they are dead

I totally agree, though. Changing offensive environments are really wild, and hard to wrap our head around

Armadillofury

2:18

Re Lauer - he increased his FB velo from 92.6 to 94 and spin from 2256 to 2302 leading to a higher wiff rate (40% vs 27%). He increased the SL, CT and CB usage at the expense of the FB and low whiff CH.

Ben Clemens

2:19

That's definitely all true (that spin rate is pretty much right in line with how much it should go up given the extra velo). And, uh, lots of pitchers throw 1.5 mph harder and don't improve their career ERA by 2.5 runs and career FIP by 1.5

I'm not saying Lauer isn't better. But all of the sudden he's throwing a decent fastball and striking out 36% of the batters he's faced? I'm not convinced

Sodo Mojo

2:19

Have you played Project L yet? My wife bought it sight unseen from Kickstarter which is usually not a good sign but it is very fun and plays a little like Patchwork.

Ben Clemens

2:19

No but that sounds incredible!

2:20

Gonna look it up after the chat

Colton

2:20

Do you think Alek Thomas affects Varsho's playing time in AZ and by how much?

Ben Clemens

2:20

I do: I think he's going to lose one start a week more or less

2:21

Might still get into those games -- let's call it 3.5 PA a week, which stings but Varsho played a ton for a catcher-eligible guy anyway

Brian

2:21

which guardian breakout is more sustainable? Miller, Naylor, or Gimenez?

Ben Clemens

2:21

I believe most in Miller of those three

2:23

Gimenez is on a crazy batted-ball heater, and I don't think Naylor can hang on to his strikeout rate gains given his approach at the plate. He's kind of a sneaky David Fletcher type, but I don't think he has the power or patience to make that really sing as a 1b only guy. I buy Miller's approach more; he's obviously not a 200 wRC+ guy but he hits the ball hard, elevates, and takes walks,

Sounds good ot me!

Derek

2:24

Are you more sold on the D-Backs or Rockies?

Ben Clemens

2:24

Actually, the Rockies

Not super sold, or anything, but I've watched more of the DBacks than the Rockies this year and they feel a batter or two away from falling apart all the time

2:25

Maybe the Rockies do too and I just haven't watched enough of them yet, but I'm also more worried about DBacks pitching than Rockies pitching

Sirras

2:25

King's dilemma - best played with 5 people who are all willing to buy into the RP element of their houses. This group played that each session was a different generation of the family and gave each session's character a silly/punny name. Do recommend

Ben Clemens

2:25

Making up house rules that increase immersion is a favorite of mine

That feels like an excellent way to do it

Pedro

2:25

Would you keep Jon Gray or Ryan Yarbrough in an AL-only 5x5? Thx

Ben Clemens

2:25

Gray. Yarbrough feels like he's kinda balanced on the head of a pin the past few years in terms of making it work with his stuff, and well, I think he fell off the pin

#notapril

2:26

Can we get a deep dive on Rowdy? Can’t figure out if he’s a ten team talent or just on a heater, and everyone’s got different opinions.

Ben Clemens

2:26

Jay just wrote about him late last week, so there probably won't be *more* Rowdy content:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/rowdy-tellez-is-absolutely-mashing/

But for my money, heater

Connecting…