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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/9/22

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Ben Clemens

2:50

It's just hard to spot that many wins in the ALE and make the playoffs, even with an expanded field

When Dan was looking at the White Sox last week, he noted that the average AL WC3 in his simulations was around 88-90 wins

That's going to be a reach for Boston at this point

2:51

Not that they can't do it, but they really need to get on a roll soon if they want to get back to a good enough pace. 10-19 is a big hole to climb out of

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen

2:51

Can we stop the cat stuff right meow?

Ben Clemens

2:51

Meow listen up, people can keep makin cat puns if they want to

Guest

2:51

Is there a measurable adjustment period for players who leave Coors? Story is simply not as bad a player as he looks right now, and comparing that to Arenado who was good not great last year, but looks like his old self now…

Ben Clemens

2:51

I haven't seen a study of that done but it might be interesting

2:52

Chuck it in the 'investigate soon' bin

#notapril

2:52

I sat Cortez for Cease this week. :(

Ben Clemens

2:52

Ooooof. Well, I think Cease is really good this year too?

2:53

He's a really interesting case, he overhauled his fastball more or less completely while in the majors

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen

2:53

The record is 6, but I think you can do 10...

Armadillofury

2:53

Why are the balls hand made in the year 2022?

Ben Clemens

2:54

I generally agree with you. It's strange! I think there's some charm to it, but c'mon, let's get things consistent

The Real Ben Clemens

2:54

Logically I know at some point either Greinke's strikeouts or his ERA are going to come up, but like.......it'd be super whacky and cool if he just pitched another 100 innings like this

Ben Clemens

2:54

I am rooting for it SO hard

Greinke being a magical being who exists outside of normal baseball is something I'm very much here for

But uh, speaking of the whole ERA/FIP debate that we seem to be having for some reason today, Greinke's career ERA? 3.4. Career FIP? 3.44

2:55

He, by the way, has the single largest divergence in wOBABIP (wOBA on balls in play) out of everything i studied

His 2015 season

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:55

Treinen looks like he's going to be out until at least the second half. Do the Dodgers need to make a back end of the pen move or should they sit pat for a bit? Lots of electric arms in AAA/AA.

Ben Clemens

2:56

If I were them, I'd sit pat for a bit but plan on upgrading in July if several of their prospects aren't lights out

Dan

2:56

I think the odds judge is Yankees first basemen in 2024 is less than 15% to have that happen and the other three things would be much less than 15%

Ben Clemens

2:56

Yeah that's totally fair. If I thought about it longer I might have said 2% or something like that

2:57

I do think the others are somewhat likely? Some permutation thereof

But the Judge thing seems quite unlikely

Guest

2:57

You leaving Cortes in if he takes this *whispers no hitter* into the 8th/9th?

Ben Clemens

2:58

For me, depends on how he's looking and feeling. If he's still feeling good and not laboring, not missing a lot of spots, I'd be tempted to

I don't see him as a max effort, sudden burn out kinda guy. If he's pitching within himself and not tiring, who doesn't want a Cortes no-hitter?

Leland

2:58

Do you buy into the conspiracy that owners tinker with the balls to affect next year's free agent class? So they don't have to pay them as much. Deaden the ball before a class of hitters, liven it before a class of pitchers, etc.

Ben Clemens

2:58

I don't

2:59

Never attribute to malice what you can to incompetence, basically

The league has just been buffoonish around the changing baseball, and that's my default assumption when there is baseball buffoonery

Depot

2:59

If Nestor was having such a good outing he'd be in line for the Win

Ben Clemens

2:59

Can't argue with that logic

Gerrit Cole

2:59

Am I back? Or was I never really gone?

Ben Clemens

2:59

Extremely 'never really gone.' People saying Cole was bad underestimate pitcher performance variance.

3:00

This isn't just a Yankees fan thing, but a LOT of Yankees fans thought he was a fake ace for a while there. Lots of fans overreact to small-sample over- or under-performance from their pitchers

3:01

Cole doesn't always help it with his 'I was 3 minutes late ot my start' excuses, but yeah.... he's been great the whole time, maybe ex a few weeks of figuring out how to throw without Spider Tack

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