JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/1/20

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Ben Clemens

2:10

Isaac Paredes has smashed in Double-A the last two years, though. I'm not convinced Tork is better than that right this instant, but it could be close

2:11

And I think if you include major leaguers then definitely not? Like CJ Cron is probably a better hitter right now

Without digging through their depth chart too much or anything

2:12

They are really light on good hitters though.

For such a good farm system. It's just all in the arms.

Guest

2:12

Is it possible teams are cutting what appear to be minor amounts of money as a message to players that things are so tight that we need you to agree to further cuts? Not saying I agree with it, but is it part of a negotiating tactic?

Ben Clemens

2:12

I don' think so? The player's association gets to see the league's books and records

2:13

And it also just doesn't seem like a reasonable tactic even as a signaling thing. You have to signal a meaningful amount of fiscal tightening to get that message across

2:14

Like if they announced that they wouldn't be able to afford any sunflower seeds in the dugout this year, the players wouldn't care

And that's in the same order of magnitude as the minor league cuts, relative to the actual fiscal tightening they'd need to do if money really were tight

Guest

2:14

Is that true? I didn't think the league's books were open to the players since they don't have a revenue sharing plan.

Ben Clemens

2:15

Yeah it's true. The players are not allowed to release it but they share their books. Hence why Scherzer and PA reps have said a few times 'if the league would release their books to the public' rather than release their books

There was a good Effectively Wild about the axis that the negotiation will take place on

Let me dig it up:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-1542-the-players-...

With Greg Bouris, former director of communication

2:16

Where he talks about the league's financial situation and the way the players get to see it a decent amount

For what it's worth, Bouris thinks that the court of public opinion is more or less meaningless and that players shouldn't even attempt to gain the high ground there.

I disagree with him on that point but I see where he's coming from.

Pumpsie Green

2:16

How many owners - if any - own teams because they love baseball? It seems they love the cachet and the free publicity, but that they are better suited to owning assets like real estate or railroads or tv networks. Maybe this whole covid thing will weed out the non-true believers in the ownership ranks.

Ben Clemens

2:16

Not many!

I don't think that was the case 20 years ago

2:17

But there's been a lot of turnover of late

And with the asset valuations being what they are, it's less and less likely that a new owner buying in will just be some guy looking for baseball fun

Because the price tags are in the billions now

Jason N

2:18

Thinking about the draft... won’t teams have a lot of leverage over top HS kids this year? With a short draft, more (and experienced) talent stays in school - rosters will be loaded. Scholarship $$ has to stretch further with all the players. Some schools are cutting baseball completely. If I was a baseball team, why wouldn’t i stock up on HS talent, bank on them having to take less, and take the comp pick if they dont?

Ben Clemens

2:19

Seems like a bit of a craven plan, though I could see some teams doing it. But this feels like more of a question for Eric. I don't know the exact mechanics of how many high schoolers there would be in the right situation (where they're worth over slot but you can offer them slot, essentially)

But who have the right combination of not needing the money right away and finding an open slot in college

It'd be very contextual. There's only a reason to try to sign under-slot bonuses if you're spending over-slot somehwere else

Joe