JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/12/23

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/12/23

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Ben Clemens

2:01

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

There's a fire alarm going off in my building, so if my answers seem like those of someone dealing with a shrill sound in his ear, my apologies

Let's get started

yankees

2:01

Olney reported that Judge is almost definitely out until post-ASB. All of the veterans are toast, and if the rookies ever amount to anything, it looks unlikely it'll be this year. Talk me off the ledge

Ben Clemens

2:02

Here's my counter-pitch: the team is 38-29

2:03

Rizzo and Torres have been just fine. Nine games over .500 is a fairly large tailwind

Are they gonna win the ALE? Probably not

2:04

Are they in a good position to win a wild card? For sure, which makes Judge's injury feel less scary

PHX

2:04

Padres and Diamondbacks have the same BaseRuns record. What's the general analytical consensus on under/ over-performance against these types of things in a single season? Just luck/noise? Roster construction/managerial choices play a role? "That's baseball" ?

Ben Clemens

2:04

A little bit of all three

Definitely comes out in the wash in the very long run, but like John Maynard Keynes said, in the long run we're all dead

sad

2

Jon

2:05

One thing to consider when choosing an expansion team: Nashville has this huge problem where people turn on their blinkers and leave it on for the next 2 miles after they've already changed lanes.

Ben Clemens

2:05

As a native Tennesseean (ish, my parents moved there when I was 2), I completely agree with this criticism

it's maddening

Greg

2:05

Why so much dislike of position players pitching?

Ben Clemens

2:05

Because it's miserable

I am surely not alone on this

2:06

When it stops being a treat and starts being 'oh, we're down 7 runs, guess it's time to turn this into a completely different game' every dang time, it gets really frustrating

2:07

I'm still into weird exceptions like Pujols pitching, but Hanser Alberto has made 12 appearnces in the past two years

Jon

2:07

How does xERA factor in walks and strikeouts?

Ben Clemens

2:07

It counts them as their linear weights (xERA is just a mapping of xwOBA onto ERA)

so it treats them the same way as the wOBA formula does

Joe Don

2:07

For this Rangers fan, the just-concluded series vs.Tampa was deflating. Do you think Texas can make the post-season with this roster? If not, what would you change?

Ben Clemens

2:08

I do... and I'd say that a three-game series that wasn't a sweep should never be that deflating

Hot take?

2:08

Josh Naylor is an _________ first basemen

Ben Clemens

2:08

I really don't understand the prompt here

like yes, this is true, josh naylor is a first baseman

2:09

I don't think he's particularly notable in any direction

20longyears

2:09

Regarding Ke'Bryan Hayes, and how air EV has increased while ground EV has decreased - could an effort to change approach and launch angle be behind that data? His average LA is up roughly 7 degrees from last year. (As always, thank you for the 5 Things column, btw.)

Ben Clemens

2:09

For sure, it definitely looks intentional

Chip

2:09

Concerned about Vinnie P's injury?

Ben Clemens

2:09

Yeah, I think so, just because I don't know exactly what it means

2:10

shoulder instability sounds very ominous

Jenny

2:10

Using your crystal ball, what do you expect the next couple of years to looks like for Scherzer and Verlander? Continued elite performance, gradual slide from elite to good, steep decline to mediocrity or retirement as soon as their skills start to slip?

Ben Clemens

2:10

gradual slide

I don't have a strong view on this either way

Didace

2:10

Watched the Nats play the Braves this weekend. I think that Acuna kid is starting to figure out the hitting thing.

Ben Clemens

2:11

He's pretty good huh?

Chip

2:11

Hey Ben - I know you have given Fangraphs Audio updates before but I wanted to reiterate for the many of us who are now lost with no map on Friday mornings that it would be really great to get it back.

Ben Clemens

2:11

We'd love to have it back and surely will at some point. I want to finish my backstories!

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