JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/12/23

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Farhandrew Zaidman

2:11

Really sucks to see all the downsizing over at The Athletic. I hope all those talented writers find greener pastures (hey, Fangraphs is pretty green-themed these days...)

Ben Clemens

2:12

Yeah, it's really sad. I don't know what to say aside from that. As a writer, I obviously dislike seeing writers lose jobs. As a baseball fan, I dislike it even more

Guest

2:12

If a player's Hard% is consistently high, does it matter as much what their batted ball distribution is (GB%,LD%,FB%)?

Ben Clemens

2:12

Hugely so

2:13

hard-hit grounders have produced a .385 batting average, .423 slugging percentage, .355 wOBA this year

hard-hit fly balls and pop ups have gone for a .444 batting average, 1.591 slugging percentage, .808 wOBA

2:14

smashing the ball is better than not smashing the ball. but no matter how hard you hit it, grounders just are'nt getting the job done

J. Fisher

2:14

let's say I theoretically hypothetically construct the pitching staff with position players, maybe 5 brandon crawford clones, would that be a better pitching staff than the current Athletics one?

Ben Clemens

2:14

It's really fun to dunk on the A's, but I don't think so

2:16

I dunno, I was gonna write more about that, but I think that is enough analysis

Insert Witty Name Here

2:16

I have an old man yelling at cloud argument, and would love your take on it. While I appreciate (truly) how advanced metrics have advanced our knowledge of the game, I feel like it’s come at a cost of the romantic enjoyment of the game. Reading Fangraphs has absolutely increased my intelligence (and wallet for fantasy purposes), however, the lack of romantic narratives in the Roger Angell wordplay has decreased my enjoyment of the game. It’s not a problem that ruins my day or anything, but it’s something I’ve ruminated on for the better part of the last few years. What do you think?

Ben Clemens

2:18

I'm in a tricky spot here. I generally agree with you on this -- I think that the little fun parts of baseball are underrated and make for great writing

I also think that focusing purely on the GM's view of the game obscures a lot of what makes me like baseball as a fan

2:19

That said, I think that FanGraphs isn't really where it was, say, 5-10 years ago

I think that there's a lot more consideration given to baseball from a perspective other than 'can we put ourselves in the shoes of a GM' than there used to be

2:21

that's not to say I'm going to stop writing articles about projections and whether a contract makes sense and all of that type of stuff

But I definitely think that we at the site have gotten better at handling the balance of providing that perspective without being WAR robots

Stroman

2:21

Feels like in combination with peripherals suggesting regression and the opt out making him a rental, the cubs really shouldn't expect to get much at the deadline for Stroman right?

Ben Clemens

2:22

Yeah, I think that this is pretty much right

2:23

I'm not sure what the end deal with opt out vs extension will be

2:24

But it clearly makes teams a little less interested in acquiring him for the stretch run +

bosoxforlife

2:24

The A's have won 5 straight???? Can the Royals be even worse?

Ben Clemens

2:25

No, the A's are still worse. But you have to feel prettttty frustrated if you're the Brewers. Swept at home by a team that's going to set records for futility? Ouch

RTJ

2:25

T/F: The last-place AL East team will have a better record than the first-place AL Central team at the end of the year.

Ben Clemens

2:26

False, but it's going to be close

RTJ

2:26

As a non-White Sox fan but a fan of great stories, the Hendricks elbow injury is a punch to the gut

Ben Clemens

2:26

Yeah, I completely agree

Owen Miller

2:27

How sustainable is my performance? What is my line like at the end of the season?

Ben Clemens

2:28

I'd say not very, to be honest. A ton of Miller's offensive value is coming from a .363 BABIP and there's nothing to suggest that he'll be able to sustain that

2:29

below-average iso, doesn't walk much, isn't an extreme low strikeout guy; I feel like a reasonable expectation is a 90-100 wRC+

2:29

If we assume batting ball statistics dont change, to what extent is an increase in K rate OK if it comes with a correlating increase in walk rate? And vica versa, to what extent is a decrease in walk rate ok if it comes with a correlating decrease in K rate? I.E. - its ok to strike out an additional 7.5% if it comes with an additional 4% increase in walk rate, and its ok to walk 7.5% less if you strike out 4% less.

Ben Clemens

2:29

I wrote something about this a few years ago: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/plate-discipline-in-one-number/

it kind of depends who you are

the more powerful you are on contact, the less you should be willing to accept these tradeoffs, and so on

Kevin D

2:30

Does Lucas Giolito get traded before the deadline? He's not coming back to the White Sox, right?

Mike M

2:30

Is anybody willing to trade the Dodgers a starting pitcher? And what would the Dodgers be willing to give up to get a starting pitcher?

Ben Clemens

2:30

Let's make a deal

2:31

I think that Giolito is definitely going to be on the move. The Sox are out of it, and he looks, if not excellent, at least like a reasonable mid-rotation pitcher

2:32

I'd also imagine that teams who are slightly more analytically savvy than the White Sox might think they can get more out of his changeup

Travis

2:32

Gunnar Henderson quietly has hit his most optimistic projection after a slow start. No questions here - just that we're still early, and a 2 week hot streak can bring up a season line.

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