JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/13/22

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Ben Clemens

2:40

If they've fallen off the pace much, I tihnk they'll stand pat

Joe Don

2:41

Ha! A red letter day - my first Fangraphs Chat reply! Ever!

Ben Clemens

2:41

It's a celebration

LanhamAct

2:41

Brayan Bello -- MLB starter this year?

Ben Clemens

2:41

Yeah

Betting on a Red Sox starter to get into a major league game at least once is a very good bet

2:42

Lots of red on Donaldson's savant page...is a breakout coming, or is this pretty much who he is at this point? Production has been fine so far—just not much better than that. Have a roster crunch coming and, even in a points league (SB = 2 pts), I think I would drop Donaldson over Jeremy Pena or C. Walker...

Ben Clemens

2:43

I think this is just Donaldson. He's gonna swing and miss a lot, he's gonna walk, he's gonna hit the ball hard.

I can see his production on balls in play ticking up, but in large part, this is who he is

Clever Girl

2:43

Hop into your time machine and take it ALLLL the way to November, 2022. Will Tanner Houck's season be more valuable than Whitlock's 2021? How many saves did he get?

Ben Clemens

2:45

I think it will be more valuable; I'm worried that Whitlock's injury will linger. I thin he will end up with.... 25 saves

Really don't have any strong view here, but now that he's installed as the closer, maybe he'll stick around? Just a guess

James

2:45

There's no obvious immediate need, but the Astros have to call Hunter Brown up sometime soon just to see what he's got right?

Ben Clemens

2:46

Yeah, at least for an extra arm for a double-header or something

You can nitpick the walks, but he's missing a TON of bats in the high minors

RTJ

2:46

Are you buying Tanner Houck being the Red Sox answer for their bullpen struggles? Seems like an overall complicated time for Sox pitching management with Eovaldi and Whitlock both getting hurt last week.

Ben Clemens

2:47

I guess to add to the answer above, Houck looks like a legit great reliever to me. I'm not sure Boston's pitching will survive the season -- injuries to two of their top starters seems really bad -- but I think Houck will look the part wherever he pitches

Gil

2:47

How many team games before you think FIP is a better pitching talent predictor than xFIP

Ben Clemens

2:48

I truly have no idea. I'm wondering some version of this myself at the moment -- at one point you need to start listening to pitcher home run rates

It's further into the season than you'd think offhand, but only in an aggregate sense. I eel like there are plenty of pitchers where xFIP is just wrong, and you kinda know it from watching them

Kevin

2:48

What am I missing on Roansy? His K-BB%, SwStr% look borderline elite - seems like there should be more hype. Numbers inflated by his spell as a reliever?

Ben Clemens

2:49

He suffers from a bad case of Pittsburgh-itis

and a secondary case of it's-only-four-starts disease

2:50

If he keeps doing it - particularly if he keeps doing it and goes a little deeper into the game -- he's going to start rising up 'good young pitching' lists quickyly

Jim

2:50

Is Detroit the only team using the no-juice baseballs? 71 wRC+! How is that historically?

Ben Clemens

2:50

I don't have a great answer for how bad it is historically at this point in the season, but it's atrocious, particularly given the hitters they brought in this offseason

thank goodness for Skubal, this would be a rough team otherwise

Derek

2:50

O/U 3.5 AL East teams in the postseason?

Ben Clemens

2:50

I can't believe I'm saying this but over

james randlap

2:51

Do you think that, time machine, before the season & before Buxton resigned, the Twins would've taken Triston Casas straight up?

Ben Clemens

2:51

No, but I don't tihnk it would have been an awful offer or anything

But I don't think you go out and get Carlos Correa for now, only to follow it up by trading Byron Buxton

RTJ

2:52

RE: Your Top 3 Hitters from above: Is Devers 4th?

Ben Clemens

2:52

J Ram for me

Trev

2:52

FIP for hitters, pick 3 stats, what do you think? Line drives, home runs, k:bb ratio?

Ben Clemens

2:52

I don't think you get to pick a ratio, and I'm not a big ratio fan anyway

If I have to take outcome stats, I'll just take XBH, K, BB

2:53

If I can include fancier stuff, I want whiff/swing and barrel/bb

Jimmy Jack

2:53

What's going on with German Marquez?

Ben Clemens

2:54

His fastball has just lost its way

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