JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/14/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/14/21

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Johnny5Alive

3:09

Re: Mets - but do you trust the pitching to hold up? I have no faith in carrasco coming back or Thor coming back into the rotation, and they can't keep trotting out Peterson and Lucchesi because it will affect their bullpen play as well. You think more of a Jon Gray type to at least have someone more reliable to plug in at the back?

Ben Clemens

3:10

If Gray doesn't cost much, sure. I don't think Lucchesi is a terrible 5th starter, though

Appa Yip Yip

3:10

I finally made the move to buy a big jar of tahini so I can make my own hummus and baba ganoush and let me tell you it is paying dividends

Ben Clemens

3:10

Oh yes, highly recommend

One big problem: I hate shelling my own chickpeas

But you kind of have to if you make your own hummus

Italian beef w/ giardiniera

3:10

Seems like CHW could acquire Lowe and then flip him this offseason?

Ben Clemens

3:10

I mean, they could, but that sounds liek a LOT of work and you'd likely lose some value there

3:11

If you win the bidding for Lowe now, you paid more for him than anyone else was willing to

Then you're going to need to move him in the offseason where a new CBA gets signed?

Just go get Adam Frazier instead imo

Joshua

3:11

Josh Harrison to the White Sox for a top 15 organization prospect? 20? 30? What would it take? Thanks.

Ben Clemens

3:11

Something in the 20-30 range is my guess

Norm

3:11

What type of contract do you think Baez gets in FA? Goldstein said 5 yrs 100 mil is way too high.

Ben Clemens

3:12

I think he'll end up on a one-year deal or signing something like 2/40 with a vesting option for a third year

I don't have a lot of faith that non-Cubs teams are going to look at the shortstop class and think that Baez is the one they feel comfortable handing a pile of cash

3:13

He's a tremendously fun player and has also produced 1.2 WAR in his last 461 PA ('20-'21) while striking out 35% of the time

I love Javy, but it's just a tough ask to sign someone like that to a long-term deal

Dan wrote about it today

3:14

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cubs-big-three-is-back/

And he has a HUGE number on him, over 200 million

But yeah, I just don't get it

Guest

3:14

Who are some (relatively) unknown relievers pitching for bad teams that could make a big impact for a contender down the stretch, maybe a tweak away from being dominant?

Ben Clemens

3:15

I wrote about John Curtiss last week, I think he'll be a big get

Here's a sneaky one, although not on a bad team

John Brebbia is finishing up his rehab in AAA at the moment and is about ready to join the SF bullpen

career 3.14 ERA, 27.4% k rate

Guest

3:16

Is Moncada an MVP quality player?

Ben Clemens

3:16

I'm not 100% sure what MVP quality means, but if you mean someone who is capable of winning an MVP, definitely

3:17

I don't think he's Trout or anything, or Tatis/Soto tier, but he's a perennial all star type

High Cheese

3:17

What should we looking for in trying to identify pitchers who may have been using sticky stuff? Anything beyond spin rates?

Ben Clemens

3:17

Their hands, i guess?

3:18

You can see sticky stuff on high speed video sometimes

Pure data wise, though, spin is the best bet

Greg

3:18

Clay Holmes has 28.1 IP in 28 appearances for the Pirates so far this year. He has allowed 14 ER good for a 4.45 ERA. However, 10 of those ER have come in two appearances where he lasted just 0.1 IP and allowed 5 ER in each case. In cases like this, do you think a pitcher is better or worse than their ERA indicates?

Ben Clemens

3:18

I think it's worth looking into extenuating circumstances in those games

3:19

If he was pitching hurt, or had to go on short rest b/c of a roster crunch, or got sick in warmups but the team didn't have another long man ready, I'm more willing to look at it as a fluke

Generally, though, first innings count just as much as second innings

Matt

3:20

Emmanuel Clase has only pitched 2 innings in June. Anything you are aware of that might explain this?

Ben Clemens

3:21

As I look through the game logs, I think it's just randomness

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