JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/15/26

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/15/26

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Ben Clemens

2:15

I haven't watched the Mets THAT closely this year to opine about Semien's defense. I think that I'd be most worried about his offense, though. There aren't a lot of hitters seeing higher zone rates in '26 than in '25 since Statcast redefined the zone smaller. Pitchers are just lobbing the ball in against Semien and daring him to do damage now

fincampbell05

2:16

Ownership says Breslow's job is safe right now, but less reputable sources are saying that it's almost a guarantee that he's fired. Red Sox have just a -4 run differential with their two best players out >50% of the season and 6 of 9 lineup spots 20 (!!!!!) or more points of wRC+ below their RoS projection. Seems pretty clear to me that this isn't his fault. What are the chances he's still POBO next Opening Day?

Ben Clemens

2:17

I make no strong takes either way as to whose fault things are and aren't. Clearly this is more complicated than 'how's they do against wRC+. Like, these guys are supposed to have some insight into who will outperform and underperform. Kind of seems like he picked some bad players. But that said, I mean, he's gone if they don't make hte playoffs, right? He made everything about him, massive overhaul, trades stars, fires scouts for back-talking him on calls, becomes a big point of discussion one way or another

when you call attention to yourself like that, pressure is inherent

2:18

I'm not saying that's fair or the right way to run a team long-term or even a good model. But let's be realistic here. "is Bres good?" has become a central point of discussion for the Sox, at least partially because he's acted like the smartest guy in the room. and so far, it hasn't worked. That's just kind of how this business works sometimes

I wrote in the offseason that I thought he did a good job of checking the right boxes and everything. I still think that

but like.... gotta win

Baseball Learner

2:18

Was the BAPIP on bunts lower back when they were something people did more often and fielders had more practice with? I'm thinking specifically of the bases empty leadoff bunt single variety

Ben Clemens

2:18

I think a big change has been pitchers bunting

2:19

but also, the BABIP on bunts used to be lower because people would bunt cheifly to sacrifice, hoping to maybe get on base if they were lucky

whereas now they bunt to get on base, with a fallback of a sacrifice

SPArn

2:19

Do you have a favorite "cromulent starter" in the league? I've really been enjoying Walker Buehler's ability lately to get it done COMPLETELY differently than he used to

Ben Clemens

2:19

it was Verlander for a few years towards the end there

oh and Erick Fedde at one point, too

2:20

hm, right now? maybe Eduardo Rodriguez

it's always kinda surprising to see him keep succeeding

Nate

2:20

I went to Miz's start on Friday. I had to take a moment afterwards to absorb it and come to terms with the fact that I'll probably never see a start that good in person ever again

Ben Clemens

2:21

you probably will not

goodness gracious

no one will 'probably' see a start that good in person. that was ludicrous

Davy Andrews

2:21

Hi Ben!

Ben Clemens

2:21

Hey Davy

fincampbell05

2:21

Do you actually think ownership's perspective is as simple as "you win, right now, or you're gone"? That seems incredibly short-sighted. I would much rather have an elite pitching dev organization that made some low-risk mistakes and cost us one season (and probably bought us a lot of future wins with the visionary trade of Devers) than whichever random they would hire in place of Breslow.

Ben Clemens

2:22

eh, I don't feel like having a long discussion of how ownership mandates work with someone who clearly has already picked out a position. I think you probably want to argue this with someone who believes more strongly in this than I do

you're right, I'm wrong

shouldn't have debated you, you've clearly thought about this much longer than I have

K’d Cavalli

2:22

Does James Wood fall off a cliff again in the 2nd half or was that a “first full season” type of ordeal? This Nationals offense doesn’t feel sustainable and if he wears down again, that’ll expedite their fall off

Ben Clemens

2:22

I don't think he will

2:23

but like, I'm a big James Wood believer, probably a mistake to take my word as gospel here

I also don't really buy that 'guys who fade' are unfixable or anything, particularly given how young he is

I mean, I might be wrong. I was wrong about MacKenzie Gore like two years in a row

for basically the same reason

2:24

but something about Wood's growth makes me think it'll keep going

sammysamsam

2:24

Would you say we are experiencing peak "Gage" in the prospect world, or can we expect to see even more players with that name in the coming years?

Ben Clemens

2:24

I think there will be even more, honestly

2:25

based on the current rate of Gages and just how twee names have gotten in general

ankoalec

2:25

Hinch had expressed interest in a six man rotation when Mize came back, which would then push either Montero or Melton to the bullpen or Toledo with Verlander's upcoming return. It seems like both have a bit more runway in the rotation with Flaherty's injury, but would you expect Montero or Melton to be the odd man out? Would you expect either to be used as a bullpen option for Detroit or be sent to Toledo to stay stretched out? Could the team do some addition by subtraction in trading Flaherty when healthy?

Ben Clemens

2:25

man, this is a tricky situation for them

2:26

on one hand, great spot for a six-man rotation; they'd like to give skubal more rest presumably and the rest of the guys are at least broadly similar

2:27

on the other hand yeah, still too many, and I'd generaly preter to see what shakes out with Montero and Melton rather than get the Flaherty you know in there

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