JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/16/25

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Ben Clemens

2:29

haha right?

although, to be fair, the DOdgers also do that

just, better

Bosoxforlife

2:30

It wasn't that long ago that Jose Ramirez was not recognized for the truly great superstar that he is.

Ben Clemens

2:31

he and Marte are actually really similar in that the way they get to their production just feels weird and so I think people overlook them

I write every Ketel Marte extension article here, it's a FanGraphs tradition, and I'm always like 'hey this deal seems great! why isn't he getting more??'

Phil

2:31

Having just watched Greg Weissert baaaarely make it through an inning against the Yankees with a two-run lead (the real problem there being the injury to Slaten and the insane overreliance on Chapman, who continues to be old), I have no problem with Hicks being a reliever, particularly if that means a good reliever. Yes, he's overpaid for that function, but it's the reverse of your point about Devers--the goal isn't to maximize value, it's to win baseball games.

Ben Clemens

2:32

totally. Hicks should be a reliever. He was already a reliever with the Giants, the starting just wasn't working. I assume that's what they'll do as soon as he's off the IL. I wrote in my recap that he's their best piece for 2025 out of this deal and I stick to that feeling

Tuntz

2:32

Found it surprising in the Devers trade article that you mentioned that Tibbs for your money could be the best player the Sox got. Is that more of a vote of confidence in Tibbs or a lack of belief in Harrison to live up to his potential?

Ben Clemens

2:33

I'd say more of the second. I am willing to be proven wrong (one of my good qualities, I'd not so humbly say) but I have a tough time buying it. The other Giants kids were just consistently lapping this guy. Like, is it really the pitching dev if Hayden Birdsong and Landon Roupp are developing well enough over the same time? A change of scenery is nice but I'm getting bust vibes from Harrison

Some kinda Mook

2:33

I am a Red Sox fan that’s not as down on this deal in raw terms as most people. But I will say that it is kinda a huge bummer, either way.

Ben Clemens

2:33

I think that a lot of the reason for the visceral responses is the pattern

2:34

like, I shouldn't be able to say "as so often happens, the Red Sox decided to trade their best player for money reasons"

Ken

2:34

Short term and long term, where does Devers play in San Francisco? 3B, 1B, or just DH?

Ben Clemens

2:34

so short term, I think DH. I would not move him to 3rd with Chapman likely back soon. Long-term, he should play first base, and I bet that with an offseason to work on it and better messaging, that's how it'll end up

2:35

if he really wants to just DH, though, if I'm the Giants, sure, taht's fine, go right ahead, just keep depositing balls in the cove please

it doesn't add THAT much roster flexibility to be a 1b/DH instead of a DH

John B

2:35

Is it more or less likely that the Red Sox move Story now? More or less likely they re-sign Bregman after opt out (assuming he opts out)?

Ben Clemens

2:35

I mean, much more likely that they try to resign Bregman if he opts out

god, could you imagine if he opts out and the Red Sox end up having a hole at third base?

2:36

as for Story, well, I don't think not moving story is for lack of trying

Guest

2:36

How do you think this trade affects Buster Posey's standing as a GM?

Ben Clemens

2:36

I think he'll get more credit than he deserves, but I think it was good business

2:38

like, hey someone calls you up and says "you know how your team consistently whiffs on signing stars to huge dollar deals where, at the time of signing, it's unclear whether they're good deals? would you be interested in getting one of those players?"

i mean.... what, was he gonna say no?

2:39

I don't know, this doesn't feel like 4d chess to me. You're saying that if you were the Giants GM, you wouldn't have the wherewithal to realize that it's good to have Rafael Devers?

Appa yip yip

2:40

If you're bregman do you even want to sign with Boston long term? Presumably he will have a more robust market this offseason

Ben Clemens

2:41

I mean, I won't put myself in his head

I don't think this deal necessarily should make him a ton less likely to re-sign

he's seen the business of baseball, he saw the Stros not retain him

2:42

I agree that his market will be robust. If he actually wanted to play somewehre else and just signed this as a stopgap, sure, he might go hit a bid away. But I think he's a good fit for Fenway and I think that there would be protests on Yawkey Way if he signed away. The Sox will probalby just back up the truck to avoid the bad PR

Oaktown Blues

2:42

Wouldn't Posey deserve credit if he was the one to broach the idea to BOS? I think I read a report that they didn't shop Devers to other teams, which would square with the notion that it was the Giants who pushed for this

Ben Clemens

2:43

If that comes out, then yeah I guess? But also, I would assume GM's are always doing this

that part I'm not sure about

Guest

2:43

Can you talk about Devers’ contract details? There’s $75 million in deferrals, which seems pretty big, and a $20 million signing bonus paid over his first four years. Who pays the bonus?

Ben Clemens

2:43

so the deferrals are in the math, basically 7.5 million of every year's salary gets paid 10 years later

I just NPV'ed that

2:45

the signing bonus, I haven't seen it covered directly but generally the way that works is that the original signing team has already agreed to pay it so they just pay it. Same way that the Sox owe Devers 7.5 million in 2034, even though obviously he's not a Red Sox anymore

Didace

2:45

"The Sox will probalby just back up the truck to avoid the bad PR". And then trade him in two years?

Ben Clemens

2:45

too soon

Connecting…