JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/17/24

Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat

Miguel Vargas

2:00

This is it, right? It's my time to shine by living up to my prospect pedigree and saving the world from all of these terrible ABs by Taylor, Kike, and Biggio, right!?!? Infield, outfield, I can do it all! (Except shortstop.)

Ben Clemens

2:01

As a longtime Vargas-head, I sure hope so. He's absolutely tearing up Triple-A this year, and going into the season without a broken hand is definitely going to help

I do think that the Dodgers would be well-served to give him a ton of chances to impress them

2:02

Just from a team-building perspective, it doesn't matter THAT much how the old guys who will be gone soon do, but if Vargas is an impact hitter, that's a big deal for their roster flexibility and lineup for years to come

Morton’s Curve

2:02

Broadly speaking, how would you attack this deadline if you were the Braves? Lost the reigning MVP and the Cy Young favorite for the year. Likely locked into a wild card spot. Weak farm. Are you cashing in chips to marginally improve your odds without 2 of your best players, or are you riding it out this year and hoping the window doesn’t close sooner than expected?

Ben Clemens

2:02

I think I'd approach it the way they did last time they lost Acuna, really

2:03

look for bat-only corner OF's who you can get for essentially nothing

if the last few years of trade deadlines have shown us anything, it's that you can almost always find some players like that who don't need a big prospect return

but I do not think that it makes sense for them to take a big swing here. Like you said, the farm system is great and it's not like this is a put up or shut up year for them

2:03

Does Volpe’s shuffling off 1st seem like a terrible idea to you? I’m always surprised it doesn’t lead to more pickoffs.

Ben Clemens

2:04

Esteban Rivera wrote a really good piece on this early in Volpe's rookie season:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/anthony-volpe-brings-the-vault-lead-to-mlb...

2:05

It's definitely a product of the limit on pickoff throws

2:06

As Esteban noted, it's weak to pickoff throws for one particular reason: if the pitcher throws over when Volpe is mid-hop, he's a lot slower returning to the base

but that's just a pure random timing thing. if you could throw over 8, 9 times an AB, I think he'd eventually get caught

but it's tough when you only get a few

I'm surprised more runners don't do it, to be honest

Plato

2:06

Which of the Cards SP has been the biggest surprise for you? Gibson and Mikolas have pitched well lately and are lowering their FIP. I recall you had Gibson on your Stock Falling article.

Ben Clemens

2:07

I'm still only lukewarm on Gibson

He's walking more batters, not striking many out, I don't think this is some sustainable path to success

2:08

I guess I'd say Lynn is the biggest surprise to me? But I dunno, Sonny Gray is shoving and the Cards are 15th in rotation WAR

21st by RA9

2:09

I'm not particularly surprised by any of this

Zach

2:09

Is there anything to indicate Arenado or Goldy stopping the aging curve (or at least slowing it down)? I'm hopeful Arenado's defensive value keeps him aging somewhat gracefully, even if he's never going to bop 30+ homers again.

Ben Clemens

2:09

No, haha

aging is not predestined, but there's nothing in particular about either of them that looks completely immune to age

BBFan63

2:09

I know the purpose of the 40-man roster and how it prevents teams from hiding players to the damage of their careers. But given current pitching usage, is there value in considering expanding this number?

Ben Clemens

2:09

Oh, I'd say the opposite

if you expand the 40, teams will just use more up and down releivers

camelcase

2:10

Mr. Burns Clemens,
your campaign The Guardians seems to have the momentum of a runaway freight train. Why are you so popular good?

Ben Clemens

2:11

I think you meant to cross out you for they, but: they're good at suppressing offense, just like always

and their offense is cashing in runners in high leverage situations at a wild rate

the differential between what you'd expect them to score based on their baserunning and offense and what they've actually scored is a half a run a game

2:12

that's the biggest gap in baseball by a mile

2:13

I think they'll cool off offensively, as in even if people keep hitting as well as they have been, they'll score less

but their defense and pitching remain the real deal and I think that will let them coast to the playoffs

Rick Asadoorian

2:13

Would a GM in a weak draft ever consider throwing a college senior $10k in the top of the first round, so that they could offer preposterous over-slot deals in rounds 2-10?

Ben Clemens

2:14

I don't think so, because I don't think there are enough over-slot players to make this make sense generally

on the other hand, teams do a half-version of this fairly often

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