JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/2/25

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Ben Clemens

2:46

also, you might argue with the way the process is built at a 'which players to target and develop' level, but Rizzo does a really good job on the margins

the Nathaniel Lowe trade, chef's kiss, so easy, so profitable

Hunter

2:47

If you could swap two guys, regardless of feasibility of actually trading them for each other, who would you swap?

Ben Clemens

2:47

Judge and Ohtani

gotta see it

Dan

2:47

How many seasons does judge have to play for the Yankees to be glad they signed him to his contract? Assume they don't have insurance so is he's hurt they are eating the full amount left.

Thanks!

2:47

According to the player page, Judge may end up with 2 years of surplus value on his contract at the end of this year (3 of 9), meaning he's banked 5 of 9 years in value. That's crazy on his annual rate. No way they traded him, but what would his trade value be? Outside of competitive dynamics, from a pure value standpoint, seems like they are optimal timing wise after this season.

Ben Clemens

2:47

I mean.... like one more year?

2:48

since he signed the deal he's been worth 21 WAR in 1400 PA, what the actual hell

2:49

give him another calendar year of health, call it 9 WAR, we're at 30 WAR for $360 million over nine years, not amazing but I'm sure they'd accept it

with, oh, 5.5 years of free value left

2:50

I'm going to get absolutely ridiculed by some of my more value-focused contacts for how high I put Judge on the list this year, I'm sure of it

Bruce

2:50

Any easy to point to data that shows the oven mitts cut down on hand injuries? Trying to win an argument quickly.

Ben Clemens

2:50

I don't know of any, to be honest

Dan

2:51

In youth sports some leagues let you add a player from your opponents team when you advance to the next tournament. I think this is mostly done to avoid over taxing arms or running into a team advancing so much they can't find a full roster since families may not have planned around the team having games the whole summer. Could the majors let's teams employ someone from their division who didn't make the playoffs? Would fans like that? Would owners hate it?

Ben Clemens

2:51

I believe Effectively WIld has tlaked about this one before

You couldn't do it, haha. The injury and use questions are just too fraught

but in a world where everyone was truly altruistic, I'd love it

Smiling Politely

2:51

this is late, but people might not realize Freddie Freeman grew up in SoCal and his whole family still lives down here and his dad (somewhat famously since the WS) comes to the games while ATL basically dumped him; I think he's wearing an LA cap or a blank one

Ben Clemens

2:51

Right so, the final tally was 66% Braves 34% Dodgers

2:52

I was closer to 50/50, which is why I asked. I agree with you that the fact that he grew up in SoCal really helps, and he won the WS there. But he also did with the Braves, and an MVP to boot. I think if the Dodgers never break through again and Freeman declines swiftly after this year, perhaps he'd go with ATL, but he's going to have more future juice in LA

Chooch

2:53

The yearly move Trea to the OF crowd is starting to roar again in Philly. Any thoughts? Doing it now seems worse than over an off-season, who replaces him, is Sosa's bat at SS really that much better than sitting presumably marsh/rojas.

Your defense isn't getting better with a mid-season Trea move to CF, Sosa slot in at SS and sitting marsh/rojas who bring solid defense at least.

Ben Clemens

2:53

Yeah, offseason for me

if you want to do it, even, which I haven't really thought about it

2:56

I agree with you that you aren't really fixing the offense by doing this, so it just feels like a lot of risk for not much reward

War2d2

2:56

Part of the Cubs’ strong start has been getting more production out of the catcher spot than anyone reasonably expected. With Amaya down and Kelly lawn-darting back to earth, would you have brought Ballesteros back up to see if he was able to fill the gap? By all reports the bat is ready and the D really, really isn’t. At what point do the cost-benefit numbers work for that to be an option?

Ben Clemens

2:56

I mean, I would, but I'm completely in the tank for Ballesteros. Love the dude

War2d2

2:56

The Judge question made me think of what the best “surplus value” FA contract ever signed was. The big one I can think of is the first Scherzer-Nats deal; my understanding is that with deferrals he basically signed for what Lester signed for, and Lester was a tire fire after year 3.

Ben Clemens

2:56

Matt Holliday Cardinals is up there, too

2:57

he was pretty awesome with them, .288/.377/.486, 139 wRC+ and 24 WAR in seven years, with most of it in the first 5

all that for $114m

Victoria

2:58

Ben, I miss Shota

Ben Clemens

2:58

Victoria, I do too

Houzer

2:58

Let's say the Jays fall out - could the Tigers get Bichette and Berrios for Jace Jung and Keider Montero?

Ben Clemens

2:58

I think so. But I don't really think the Jays will fall off?

or like, fall off to the extent where they're trading Bo

2:59

feels like they'd prefer to let him leave in free agency after the arc of the kids of the stars is over

J-Rod

2:59

Loved the article you wrote about Cal’s new approach at the plate (swinging less). Do you think Julio would benefit from taking a similar approach?

Ben Clemens

2:59

I've thought about it, and I concluded "huh I'm not sure"

Dan

3:00

Would be fun (albeit unrealistic and difficult to find all of the examples) when thinking about the surplus value of deals if trades on that contract were included. My thought was Carlos Beltran's deal with the Mets where they eventually traded him in the last year for Zack Wheeler

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