JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/21/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/21/21

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Ben Clemens

2:19

I mean, yeah. They all have been for 100 years

Derek

2:19

I'd guess the recent losing streak probably accelerated things for the Rays & Franco too... It'd look pretty dumb to let the division get away from them while the best prospect in baseball is mashing AAA pitching all season.

Ben Clemens

2:19

Right. I think that they'd HOPED to have a little more buffer

2:20

I've been predicting a mid-July callup for a while

But I see the thikning in calling him up now

He's probably their second-best hitter

You should have that person in the major leagues if you want to win games

Dalton Wilcox

2:20

Will the new pitching rules put more of a demand on pitching skills that aren’t velocity? There’s plenty of other skills. Does this up the Value of someone like Kyle Hendricks?

Ben Clemens

2:20

An excellent question that I just have no clue about

I'm not actually sure if this devalues velocity, for example

2:21

It's just confusing until we get some more data

CB

2:22

This whole "sunscreen and rosin is cheating" thing reminds me of McGwire. Everyone's doing it now (and everyone knows about it). Everyone was doing (the other) it back then (and everyone knew about it). McGwire kept andro in plain view IN HIS LOCKER for deity's sake.

Big Joey

2:22

If Wander is a good as we hope, he'll only stay in Tampa for 4 years, right? They can't sign him longterm......so where does he end up?? :D

Ben Clemens

2:22

Not necessarily. If he's a perennial MVP candidate, they can pay him in arb and still be getting a meaningful surplus

That's not the end-all be-all for the Rays, but it's the end-most be-most

If they can pay him $12 mil in arb and get a 6 WAR season they'll definitely do it

Pumpsie Green

2:23

I'm also against runners on second stealing signs! So yeah, my personal HoF is just an empty room :).

Ben Clemens

2:23

Haha well that's totally fair

Pumpsie Green

2:23

Before the season, would you have preferred Springer or Arenado, long-term? And who do you prefer going forward?

Ben Clemens

2:23

I was really down on Springer this offseason, not b/c I had any insight into potential injury woes, but b/c I thought he was more of a corner outfielder than a CF

2:24

So I would have taken Arenado, and would still take Arenado

But I think I was not on industry consensus there

And I don't think my opinion would change too too much based on this year

Arenado has been essentially what you'd expect

and Springer has been hurt

2:25

Obviously it cuts down on the value of the contract, b/c Springer hasn't really plyaed this year, but going forward, I wouldn't move my projections too much

CB

2:25

What should / what will the Cardinals do at the deadline? Everyone says they need to win now to keep Nolan, but wouldn't they be better off doing a quick-sell and retool for next year? Nolan has to understand that plan and he has another opt out after 22 if it doesn't work.

Ben Clemens

2:25

It's gonna depend a lot on the next month

2:26

If they're 6 games over .500 on July 22

Then why would they sell?

They're the kind of team where the standings REALLY matter

Spin

2:26

Do you think the pitchers who were best but using the sticky things will still be the same list of best pitchers without it? Would there be a type of pitcher who benefits MORE from this than another type, or would they all benefit equally? Like Cole can still go 8 IP 2 ER against the Jays lineup. But are there high-K guys who are likelier to really struggle now?

Ben Clemens

2:27

I think there's a misconception that everyone is using the same high-performance tacky nonsense

I don't think that's the case

2:28

Like, Trevor Bauer is going to be more impacted by this change than Adam Wainwright

You heard it here first

2:29

Pitchers who rely less on spin were less likely to be using the most RPM-additive stuff, and so they'll probably be hurt less after an adjustment period

Appa Yip Yip

2:29

People are still spoiled from Soto. We literally just went through this with Vlad and now everyone has Franco Fever. Like prepare for a lot of mediocrity spiked by flashes of brilliance for a year or so don't do this to yourselves.

Ben Clemens

2:29

Are you wrong? No

Is that boring? Yes

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