JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/22/20

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Ben Clemens

2:52

So this offseason will be a very interestin time for teams willing to gamble on their evaluations of players who are a touch data-light

Municipal Baseball Enthusiast

2:52

Is it true that the difference in salaries between NPB, KBO and MLB is due to the fact that we publicly finance stadiums?

Ben Clemens

2:52

Mm, the math doesn' really add up

Though it certainly helps

2:53

For one thing, the KBO is much smaller, and they don't have similar overall revenues at all.

2:55

NPB drew less than 50% of the live fans that MLB did last year, and ticket prices are lower (from my experience going to exactly one game there, to be fair)

And while I can't find exact data on it, it's reasonable to assume the TV contract situation is much less lucrative for the teams.

2:56

The stadiums help, but MLB generates an absolute ton of revenue. Let's say you lop off 500 million dollars from every team once every 30 years, that's 500 million dollars a year that teams would have to procure themselves

(and that's a bad assumption, some stadiums are privately financed and some teams don't change stadiums that frequently)

2:57

So take that 500 million directly out of player salary, mlb would still hvae a big edge

Kawasaki Home Run

2:57

Where would be your preferred MLB bubble locations, if we went down that road (similar to NBA and NHL)? Phoenix and Florida don't look too good right now based on infection rates. Same for Cali and WA. Texas was mentioned as a third bubble in previous discussions. Where else has the hotel and field capacity and the low infection rates to try the regular season? IL? NY? MO?

Ben Clemens

2:57

Cali actually seems okay to me, depending on the exact structure. It's such a big state that there are several locations where COVID is not out of control

2:58

Additionally, the positive test rate here hasn't spiked the way it has in AZ and FL, which gives me some confidence that there's not another flare-up waiting to happen

I don' think IL and NY make too much sense, because to get access to the facilities you'd want you would need to go to the big cities

There aren't 15 major league fields in Buffalo just hanging around or anything

2:59

I just don't think a bubble is logistically workable at this late hour.

I'm honestly a little skeptical of bubbles overall, too

Too many places where the concept can fail

But yeah, if I had to pick a place, I'd lean California at this point to be honest

3:00

And I might be willing to consider Florida if someone has an idea for how to deal with the rain

But in an NBA style deal

Not in a city, in a place where you can completely restrict access

That makes the infection rate in the general population a little less worrisome

3:01

But yeah.... I don't see it happening evither way.

Trivia Question Guy

3:01

Since 1970, three players (hitters) have won an MVP award while hitting 10 HR or less. Name them.

Ben Clemens

3:01

Hm.

Wow I am not good at this style of trivia.

3:02

Any chat guesses, fire them in. I'm goin to think about it for a few minutes before answering.

bohknowsbmore

3:02

Couldn't the players have a massive interest in California vs. Florida bubble locations given the state income tax chasm between the two?

Ben Clemens

3:02

Yeah, this is a really good point!

I hadn't thought about that

Yup, Cali is probably out for that reason

3:03

They'd need to negotiate some kind of carve-out with the state and lol, not happening.

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

3:03

Your little "Bbo Ngaleighten" word scramble cheap shot is disgraceful. I will not stand by while you besmirch the good name of renowned baseball writer H. Negotiable. The Negotiable family is practically royalty around here, and their philanthropic efforts helped put me through college. I will be writing a letter to Ms. Rowley of FanGraphs dot com.

DAMMIT that should have been H.B. Negotiable.

Ben Clemens

3:03

I've got your back

Excellent anagramming

I've been found out!

3:04

Sorry Herbert Bertrand Negotiable

I take it back

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