JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/28/21

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Ben Clemens

2:02

Hey everybody, welcome to a baseball chat. Let's take some baseball questions... and, of course, whatever non-baseball topics you actually want my opinion on

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen

2:02

How bad will MLB look if Santiago really only had rosin on his glove?

Ben Clemens

2:02

I mean, they certainly won't look great!

bob

2:02

The Cardinals have absolutely imploded. *If* the decide cut bait on the year, retool and sell, what sort of returns do you think they could get for their tradable players?

Ben Clemens

2:02

I'm gonna be honest with you: not a lot

2:03

As we start to put together the trade value list (hooray!), there aren't exactly a lot of Cardinals who jump out

If they're doing a shallow rebuild, they also don't have a lot of impending free agents with value unless you think they're trading Molina and Wainwright (and they're just not going to)

2:04

Kim and Carlos Martinez are options (and some team might pick up Martinez's options if things get really weird), and that's basically it

So I think they'll get organizational depth if they try to do a shallow one-year reload

And not much more

Jason Giambini

2:04

Why is there a difference between the Projected Standings and Playoff Odds tabs in terms of win totals? Different projection systems? For example, the Orioles are expected to win 60 games in Projected Standings, but only 58.3 in Playoff Odds.

Ben Clemens

2:05

This should probably be explained more clearly on the site, but 'projected standings' is a page that completely ignores the rest of a team's schedule and gives them wins and losses based on how many runs we expect their lineup to score and allow against neutral competition

2:06

Whereas the playoff odds tab runs them through their schedule, so takes opposing team schedules into account

Er, sorry, opposing team strength

ROGELIO

2:06

Giants batting lines are crazy this year. Any chance Oracle is playing more like a hitters park since the re-configuration but park factors are still treating it as the pitcher's park it has historically been?

Ben Clemens

2:07

Yes, a very good chance. Our park factors are designed to be slow-moving and look back a lot of years, but that doesn't work well when stadiums change quickly

Oracle seems to me like a FAR hitter-friendlier park than it did five years ago

This is a tough thing to capture the way we do park factors

2:08

This is paywalled, but an interesting look at fancier park factors from Jonathan Judge at BP:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/64534/an-updated-syste...

Dalton Wilcox

2:08

Have you ever met a sports fan before the 2010s who considered losing a viable strategy towards winning? What’s happening to us?

Ben Clemens

2:08

Meet the 1996-97 San Antonio Spurs

But yes, it's weird

Anj

2:09

What's a return package for Mancini look like? Couple top ten org prospects? Any consensus top 100 guys?

Ben Clemens

2:09

I'd guess no on consensus top 100 guys, but yes on top ten org prospects

Teams are getting very grabby about consensus top 100 types, and doing more Padres-type trades

I expect that to continue in deadline action this eyar

Derek

2:10

Re Cards: The Brewers' Kolten Wong seems like a useful player that would fit well on the Cardinals' current roster! Oh...

Ben Clemens

2:10

Hey-o!

I'm Team Kolten and have been for a long time

I truly don't understand why the Cards declined his option

kevinthecomic

2:11

I thought it was TOOTBLAN not NOOTBAAR

T(win)s

2:11

Twins look more likely to reload rather than rebuild for 2022/2023. Do they actually try to move a Buxton/Berrios/Donaldson type player for a prospect package?

Ben Clemens

2:11

I don't see them dealing Buxton, because it's hard to trade players when injured and Buxton is so valuable when healthy but so oft-injured that they wouldn't secure a fair return

I think that a Berrios move makes a ton of sense

I have no inside information on this whatsoever, I just think he's the ideal type of player to move this deadline

2:12

Great pitcher, not a true ace

Controllable next year, which teams will covet, but it doesn't torpedo the Twins' long-term plans to trade him

BringBackDeSpanielHair

2:12

Is Rizzo droppable? 10 team, points redraft, with Voit as my main 1B?

Ben Clemens

2:12

I'm a sucker for holding on too long, but I'd hold on (just barely)

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