JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/28/21

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Ben Clemens

2:33

I think it's Mancini

The comeback player award doesn't tell you to rely only on stats

J.D. Martinez was a major league hitter last year

Mancini was fighting cancer

That's more of a comeback

Jarren Duran

2:33

Is it unpatriotic of me to want be called up to the show?

Ben Clemens

2:34

I don't think so. If the Olympics were a bigger deal I'd be less sure... like if they were a World Cup type event

Nate

2:34

I'm trying to learn more about advanced statistics. What is the best statistic to use to differentiate between the value of a walk and a single? Ignoring the power component, how much more valuable is Xander Bogaerts' .391 OBP with a .330 BA than Joey Gallo's .385 OBP with a .224 BA?

Ben Clemens

2:34

So, the first thing I would suggest is reading our glossary entry on wOBA

https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/woba/

2:35

This is the general driver behind wRC+, and basically it works by taking what happens, on average, when you get each result in a given base/out state

Then weighting that by how often each base/out state occurs

So, sometimes a single and a walk are worth the same

Sometimes a single is way better

2:36

If you look at wOBA values, singles have always been worth more than walks in aggregate

https://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=cn

And as an interesting aside, HBP's are always worth more than walks

Why? B/c walks disproportionately occur with first base open

Which we account for in the 'weighting by how often each base/out state occurs'

2:37

So even though they're both worth a base and only advance runners if forced

HBP's more often come at a time when that baserunner isn't something the defense wanted to concede

Appa Yip Yip

2:37

Vlad, Tatis, and Ohtani are all on pace to hit 50 bombs. Who makes it? Any of the dudes just behind them you'd make a spec bet on to kick it up in the second half?

Also lol baseball is so good right now

Ben Clemens

2:37

Baseball is REALLY good right now

It's amazing

2:38

As for people behind them, I always like Acuna's chances

Finding it hard to completely buy into Matt Olson

But he's another one

ROGELIO

2:38

Singles = more valuable/less predictable. Walks = less valuable /more predictable. Is that the crux of why analytics tend to prefer BBs over 1Bs?

Ben Clemens

2:38

Yeah, this is a good way to put it

2:39

Walks are less valuable, but getting on base via a walk is, in general, more of a skill than getting on base via a single

That's not to say that there aren't people with the skill of getting on base via a single, just that most players dn't have it

Nick

2:39

Doesn’t treating HBP as more valuable artificially inflate a hitter’s apparent value? The hitter doesn’t control whether first base is open.

Ben Clemens

2:39

Some players have skill at being hit

Also, it's a realllly small difference

2:40

More of a fun thing to point out

Than actually something to drive value

If you got hit by a pitch 100 times

well, you'd need an ice pack

2:41

But also, the increased value we assign to HBP's would be worth 2.5 more runs than if they had the same value as walks

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