JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/5/23

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

2:02

Let's get started

Tres Rios

2:02

Would the Pirates really entertain trading Bednar if they’re hanging around 1st come deadline time? Heard a little chatter about this, and how the Os did something similar last year. Thanks

Ben Clemens

2:04

I don't really think the Pirates will, because at least as far as I can tell, Pittsburgh as a city is hungrier for a postseason berth than Baltimore was, and it feels like the Pirates really need the jolt

they haven't won the NLC for probably 30 years

Talfred

2:05

Why does JBJ still have a major league job? He’s 33 years old, in his third straight year of negative fWAR, and his wRC+ is 6. I understand the glove is still excellent, but there’s no reason the man should be allowed in a batter’s box.

Ben Clemens

2:05

Because Royals

Appa Yip Yip

2:05

Is José Berríos good again?

Ben Clemens

2:05

I guess so, huh?

how it happened I have no idea

2:06

but on the other hand, I don't know how he turned bad in the first place

2:08

So I'm just gonna say that he's extsremely inconsistent

Kal

2:08

I know you are not a big fantasy guy but if you had to choose 1 C to trade away in a dynasty league, would it be Realmuto, Sal Perez or F Alvarez? (Looking to win now)

Ben Clemens

2:08

oh surely Sal

Jason

2:10

Thoughts on Corbin Carroll? Given his success, what do you see as his ceiling performance wise?

Ben Clemens

2:10

I really do not like the concept of ceilings for players

like, his ceiling is that he wins multiple mvp awards

Bruce & E Street

2:11

Need pitching help( who doesn't) was offered Miles Mikolas for Lane Thomas. 12T deep Mixed Daily Roto. I belive I have enough Bats, will Mikolas be helpful with W, Whip, Era ? Thanks

Ben Clemens

2:12

I'm quite skeptical of Mikolas being a difference maker in fantasy

2:13

I'm sure he'll be a reasonable starter for the cardinals

Pretty skeptical about him helping you on WHIP though

Wrights Back

2:13

What exactly (or approximately) is wrong with the Mets' offense (let's leave their offensive pitching out of the frame for now); Lindor is making Baez look like a contact king, Baty seems overmatched, Alonso is all or nothing, McNeil is striking out way more than the past, Vogelbach is AWOL... Are they reaping the bitter fruits of a sabremetrics heavy "let's discover an inefficiency in batters who DON'T hit home runs" approach to offence? Or is this a problem laid at the feet of their hitting coach? I note the same group (plus or minus) were beasts until Marie went down late last year....
Please give me hope that 'meaningful Octobers' aren't receding into the past (again).

Ben Clemens

2:14

I think that the end of your question has a lot going on

the same group were indeed beasts last year

baseball is maddening that way

Joe

2:14

Hi Ben, thanks for taking my question. I have a question about WAR. I read that WAR is an approximation and can have margin of error of 1 and you would have a clearer picture looking after a sample size of a year. With that understanding, I am confused why people use WAR to compare players early in the season. Like a player A is 2.5 fWAR vs player B is 2.0 fWAR, so player A is having a better season. Is my understanding of WAR is incorrect? What am I missing here?

Ben Clemens

2:15

Nah, you're pretty right. I think people overuse WAR in that specific way

Guest

2:15

Seiya's statcast page is covered in red, yet his xBA remains .248. Would you use this as an example of how statcast can deceive you into thinking a player is better than he is, or an example of how we should wait for results to catch up with skills?

Ben Clemens

2:17

I think it's also a great reminder that xBA isn't a great stat

but no, seiya's hitting the snot out of the ball, that's a good thing

John

2:18

Can Bobby Miller (Dodgers) keep on his hot start? Or this is another case of small sample size? Will we see a regression because he isn’t supposed to be this good?

Ben Clemens

2:19

Can he keep pitching to a 1 ERA? I doubt it

Can he be a good major league starter right away? Totally

the stuff looks very real

Everybody

2:19

Thanks for the welcome, Ben

Ben Clemens

2:19

For you specifically!

Guest

2:19

You’re in PT, but your chat time shows in ET. SAD

Ben Clemens

2:19

We know where our bread is buttered

2:20

ET is the de facto time zone of the US, you know?

Wingedbeater

2:20

Is there a place to find an expected k% stat? I’m thinking that it could be relatively easily derived from the plate discipline stats available on the player pages and related league averages. (LeMahieu, for instance, has more than doubled his k% and while his plate discipline specifics are worse they don’t seem to warrant that increase. Maybe they do, though—is there a less hand wavey way of making that claim?)

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