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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/7/21

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Ben Clemens

2:12

Second, this is the kind of question I'd like to ask a major leaguer

Like, I can tell you that a given ball had a very high catch probability after the fact

Or even heck, during the fact

2:13

But I have a much better angle to see it than the players do

Off the top of my head, they definitely do. But I just don't feel comfortable saying either way for sure

Bill

2:13

So, Cedric Mullins leads the league in hits. Is he for real?

Bob

2:13

Is Cedric Mullins a legit 3 WAR player going forward?

Ben Clemens

2:13

Hey Bob. Hey Bill.

2:14

This is something I want to look into further, it's on my list

2:15

To be fair, the list also has things like 'Julio Urias weird bunts' so I'm getting through it in a very haphazard fashion

On a quick inpsection, I'm into it

2:16

Hittin the ball hard has always been his problem more so than strikeouts, and I'm always leery of players like that

But he's hitting the ball a lot harder this year, so uh, great

I also like your hedge to 3 WAR player rather than the stupidly high pace he's on

This is why teams like the Orioles do this. Sometimes players just work hard and get better

2:17

I'm not 100% bought in, but I'm pretty bought in, which is great for someone who had 418 PA of bad major league experience before this year

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

2:17

You put the punchline in the title for the Goldilocks bunt article. :(

Ben Clemens

2:17

Yeah, but then I was hoping you'd forget it before the end and then BAM remember it

Also, I have to compete with 'Invasion of the Otterbots'

Moonlight Graham

2:18

Speaking of watching deGrom on your recent fangraphs audio you and Dan gave him 1 in 20 shot at 1.12. If he maintains an ERA under 1 when would consider it 50/50 odds?

Ben Clemens

2:18

Oof, this is not the kind of thing I'm any good at making odds on

depends on how low below 1 of course, but if he's there in August I thikn it gets interesting

2:19

I'm curious to hear people's thoughts on this, though, because I'm not confident in my thinking at all

Brazilian boy

2:19

Hey I from Brazil, tell me good books about baseball, if not is the Book.

Ben Clemens

2:20

I loved Dollar Sign on the Muscle as a scouting book. Jeff Passan's The Arm was really fun to read and incredibly well-researched. If you want a fun book, The Only Rule Is It Has To Work is an absolute classic

Also, I read 'The Mental Game of Baseball' for Josh Bell's book club last month and while it was repetitive (we get it, think positive thoughts), it was really interesting to see that type of thinking applied to baseball

2:20

Several Brewers players have indicated Willy Adames "energy" as one of the reasons for the team's recent performance spike. Do you believe adding an energetic personality to the clubhouse can actually make a team play better?

Ben Clemens

2:21

Can? Sure

Ex ante predictably? Nah

Guest

2:21

It’s June so we can trust Ke’Bryan Hayes’ 210 wRC+... what do you think is his true offensive level?

Ben Clemens

2:22

It's still early, of course, but the evidence is starting to stack up

I don't think he's going to continue his power numbers

2:23

It's really hard to hit for this kind of power sustainably without elevating the ball more, though maybe he'll end up hitting for more BABIP to make up for it? He has very few line drives this year

In a comically small sample, so don't read much into that

He's just a flat-angle hitter overall

2:24

That said, the bat-to-ball skills are real, and his eye has been better than advertised

I'm upgrading him to 'likely perennial all star' in my head, though he was very close to that level before this year

2:24

Are there any publicly available sources of data that quantify infielder arm strength?

Ben Clemens

2:24

Sadly not

2:24

Hey look! Tommy Pham turned it around! The rest of the Padres offense hopefully will follow soon...

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