JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/8/20

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/8/20

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Ben Clemens

2:28

I think it depends on who you are?

2:29

Like if your baseline is a 4 WAR player, and you're streaky btw 6 and 2 in a real true-talent way, then not really

Because you're going to play either way, and a single player can't budge their teams' odds enough. Like there are teams where adding 2 wins is more helpful than subtracting 2 wins is hurtful, for sure

There are plenty of those

But I don't think it's reasonable for any of them

2:30

I do think that a streaky *team*, or just a high-variance team in general, might be well served

But I'm struggling to articulate why so maybe ignore me

David

2:30

I definitely want to see some baseball, but also want to be able to put this chaos behind us and forget about it. Speaking of SS, what ceiling do you see for Dansby for near and long term?

Ben Clemens

2:31

I'm a little more down on Dansby than I believe the industry consensus is. That's the "popular" consensus, by which I mean what you'd hear if you listened to MLB Network or ESPN or whatnot

I think that ZiPS and Steamer are pretty close to my view; league average player

Bat won't kill you

2:32

He definitely has the potential for a big season in there, but I think it would need to come from season-long power

I don't see him improving his plate discipline enough to get it there

That's by no means out of the question, but not my base case

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

2:32

Assuming there's a season, do we switch to WAR/600 as the standard productivity benchmark, or does every article have to have an asterisk next to the 2020 numbers to explain why no one was valuable?

Ben Clemens

2:32

Hm

I could see it being that way for a few years

That seems like just good logical thinking.

2:33

I do not think it will switch forever, though

No one uses WAR/600 for 1994, or for the careers of players who played in 1994

Derek

2:34

It really doesn't seem like it should be this hard to figure out how to play some damn baseball...

Ben Clemens

2:34

Completely agree!

I did a radio hit on a Toronto radio station yesterday, where the host had a lot better idea of the hockey details than I did

2:35

And remember, hockey has had some really vicious labor battles in recent memory

And he was just baffled at how baseball was somehow negotiating changed salaries and long, sweeping changes ot the game in all of this

instead of just saying let's play you nerds we want to be popular

I just.... don't get it

David

2:35

WAR......bleh (watches for arrows to come flying in)

Derek

2:36

At this rate everyone will just have 0.0 WAR 2020s.

Ben Clemens

2:36

Hey, I tend to like WAR as a nice objective analytical tool, but I think anyone who tells you it's the only stat that matters is being a little ridiculous

2:37

I really like the framework of WAR, and I think that a replacement-level based framework, in the ideal sense, is the best way to think of player value

2:38

But it's completely reasonable to disagree with the particulars of WAR, and to think that the way we calculate it today misses exciting and useful plyaers

And might actually keep those players from getting the chances they deserve

Nathan

2:38

Is there a rule change that would lead to more aggressive base running? I appreciate teams not running into stupid outs, but base stealing is fun to watch.

Ben Clemens

2:38

There are things you could do on the margin; get rid of the stupid pop-off-the-base replay reversal, which is the worst rule in baseball in my opinion

2:40

You could limit pickoff throws, though how to do that is tough

You could expand the bases, as the Atlantic League tried last year, though without much success in changing baserunning

I'd like to see the league enforce balks incredibly strictly

Like, codify the rule better

And enforce it

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