JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/8/26

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/8/26

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat.

We're trying out a new system where you're required to log in to FanGraphs to ask a question. You don't need to be a Member, but you do need to have an account, just like you need an account to comment on any article. We'll see how it goes. If you have feedback, feel free to just leave it as a question, or you can send a note to support@fangraphs.com.

So if you're having some login issues, try that, and if not, email us; we're hoping to get this seamless sooner rather than later

jackberris

2:00

Do you believe in the Kumar Rocker semi breakout this year?

Ben Clemens

2:01

I had to look, and I have to be honest, I'm not getting breakout vibes here

like, maybe an ERA breakout. but blah xERA, blah FIP and xFIP, worse SIERA than last year, stuff looks close to unchanged, lower SwStr%

2:02

I'd probably be trying to trade him in fantasy if I had him, basically

Phillip Denny

2:02

Hey Ben! Great article on bunts, which coincidentally is exactly what I wanted to ask about. Without trying to sound like a sabermetric neophyte, I've always thought that the bunt was maligned by the greater analytics community because when some people hear "bunt" they think they hear "sacrifice bunt." Are we now at a point where we can agree that sacrifice bunts are almost always bad, but bunts for hits (and their ~.330 BABIP) can sometimes be good? Especially in circumstances where OBP may be more useful than SLUG? (I.e. runner on 2nd and/or 3rd with less than 2 outs)? Thanks!

Ben Clemens

2:02

I'd say yes

I mean, I've been saying yes for years

but it seems that teams are starting to agree

no one has told announcers, who still like sacrifice bunts too much. But like, safety squeezes and sneaky bunt-for-hit-with-sacrifice-backup plays are working really well

Alby

2:02

What's your take on the competing proposals from the players and owners for the next labor agreement?

Ben Clemens

2:03

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlb-and-the-mlbpa-have-made-their-opening-...

2:04

wrote a very long writeup, tl;dr is that neitehr side's proposal is all that realistic, the owners have done a lot more lying/misleading with their public statements though both sides are of course talking their own position, and most importantly:

No one's looking out for the fans in this negotiation. Your tickets aren't going to get cheaper. That's not what anyone wants. So when anyone invokes the fans, your radar should go up.

InsertWittyNameHere

2:04

Let's get our Roland Garros talk out of the way: didn't see the women's final but is Andreeva now in the Sabalenka/Swiatek tier? Obviously Zverev isn't in the Alcaraz/Sinner tier, but that was still a fun final. If Cobolli lost that 4th set, could you imagine the lifelong mental anguish he would have had with that missed shot at set point?

Ben Clemens

2:04

oh yes we get to talk about tennis

2:05

I think the tiers are not quite like that. I dunno what has happened with Iga but I think she's in the second tier with Coco, Rybakina, and Iga now, with Sabalenka still top dog

sorry that should say that Andreeva is in the second tier

2:06

inside tennis story for you, I saw Andreeva play at Indian Wells last year when she won and I've been WAY too high on her ever since. She gives me generational prospect vibes. Like, Konnor Griffin, maybe? She's just enormous and also fast and athletic, in a way that makes her look like an alien compared to the people she's playing against at times

strength and conditioning training throughout her 20s? She's gonna be an absolute monster. She's definitely my #1 prospect in tennis, if we're betting on year-end #1 in, say, 2028 she's the first pick by a mile

SPArn

2:07

So glad you wrote about the bunt. So glad Nasim Nunez (who looks a lot like Francisco Lindor in that photo!) is now the face of the bunt. One of my favorite moments of the season so far is the Brewers dying by the bunt against the Nats on a Saturday, living by it the very next day. I was at the Phillies game this weekend, and am curious when public perception catches up to the bunt being hip again. The crowd sighed when Justin Crawford squared down 6-1, implored them to HIT HIM when a light hitting White Sox dared to square up 6-2

Ben Clemens

2:07

I think it'll catch up as people realize how frequently good things are happening

but again, bad sacrifices should still be massively booed

Mario Mendoza

2:07

I admit I haven't been paying attention. Why is Strider's velo down so far this long after injury, and is it something that makes it unlikely he'll regain it?

Ben Clemens

2:07

I dunno, honestly. I think that some people just do not come back the same from surgeries, and that it's kind of unpredictable

2:08

it's encouraging that his arm angle is trending back up, and our pitch models like the shape of his fastball this year mroe than last year, as do I

but yeah, look, injuries are scary! I don't have a great answer for you but things seem bad

K’d Cavalli

2:09

Thoughts on my theory that the owners are pushing salary cap as distraction so when they finally concede and a cap isn’t implemented, they aren’t forced to change the completely corrupt international signing process?

Ben Clemens

2:09

I do think that there's a decent chance that the cap is a negotiating position

because the risk/reward is just kinda weird, at least in my opinion

2:10

like, the risk is just very high, and I would not be as sure as they are that the drag in franchise valuations is about a lack of salary cap instead of just not seeing enough transactions, and the teams that tried to sell recently being very Twins-y (mostly, the Twins)

the Padres just sold for a pile

2:11

you want to risk your golden eggs to try to make them even more golden? I think it's much less compelling 4 billion dollars later

Phillip Denny

2:11

Follow up on bunting - do we know the actual league-wide BABIP of bunts for hits? I know bunts are generally excluded from BABIP due to the sacrifice of it all, so is there anywhere I might find that information?

Ben Clemens

2:11

so, you can do this (and honestly, tons of things!) on Baseball Savant's search

2:12

so let's talk about how to really quickly. First, go to this page:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search

2:13

Next, let's do what we want. So, I want batters. I want to look at the league rate. I want plate apperances. I want bunts. and i want the percentage of bunts that are hits. So I check those flags in 'flags', check the results I want in 'pa result', go into 'change total pitch parameters' so that I'm getting hits as a percentage of PA's that end in bunts:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=single%7Cdou...

31.5% of PA's ending in bunts turn into hits. there you go

oaktownblues

2:13

What was your opinion on the no-call yesterday in the potential out of the basepath situation? Right call?

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