JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/9/25

Ben Clemens

2:02

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

Pat

2:02

Tarik Skubal's last 11 starts- 95K, 3 BB..Holy Moses! Never seen anything like it.

Ben Clemens

2:02

Yeah I mean "getting ridiculous" does not cover it anymore

2:03

I wrote about how ludicrous Skubal's 2025 performance was a few weeks ago and it's maybe more ludicrous now?

Trent Grisham

2:04

Why oh why did he decide to go back to his old and tired ultra-passive ways as soon as you wrote about how well he was pitch-hunting?

Ben Clemens

2:04

This is kind of a classic "SI cover jinx" kinda thing

2:05

Like, I wrote about Grisham b/c he was doing a thing multiple SD's different than he had all of his career

so surely the go-forward expectation of that thing was less extreme than it had been

2:06

also, for this skill in particular, it probably will always go in waves. You get more aggressive early and feast on pitchers throwing you meatballs. So the pitchers start nibbling, but you're still aggressive, and it doesn't work. So you get less aggressive and get ahead in the count. But then the pitchers start throwing you meatballs again...

I hope he can keep it going but this is the kind of adjustment that's never going to be done and always going to be a work in progress

Guest

2:06

I hope this entire chat is dedicated to talking about this Kershaw comment!! He made an offhand, tongue-in-cheek reply to a reporter about something he didn't even think worth bringing up! This is truly the story of the year!!

Ben Clemens

2:06

I honestly thought the comment, and the Cardinals video board operator that led to it (looping a famous Kershaw playoff implosion), were both very funny

Inaccessible Rail

2:07

What do the Mets do once Winker & Siri come off the IL? Option Baty & Acuna? Seems like that might make the team worse. Same thing with Montas & Manaea. Option Megill? Brazoban? They don't have a lot of optionable guys.

Ben Clemens

2:07

I don't think they can option Acuna if they're sending Baty down, they need backup infielder. Surely Jared Young will get sent down, right?

2:09

WInker is presumably gonna play some DH, so I could see them saying "Ronny Mauricio was supposed to be in Triple-A longer this year, we can send him down to keep rehabbing"

but that's tough b/c he has been hitting really well in his brief 2025 season

2:10

on the pitching side, I'd say just don't worry. Someone's gonna get hurt. Someone always gets hurt. If they don't, do you really need Paul Blackburn and Brandon Waddell (and Jose Castillo and Brazoban) in the bullpen all at once?

you're allowed to DFA guys without options if they aren't significantly better than your replacement hcoices

Guest

2:10

Got any board game recs for two players? Something that's more interactive between the two players than Wingspan or Azul

Ben Clemens

2:10

Ooh, yeah, a variety depending on what exactly you're looking for. But for interaction, how about Watergate?

2:11

One player plays as the Nixon administration, one plays as the WaPo

2:12

or alternately Votes for Women, I played this as a 4 player but it works as 2 as well. In this one, one side plays the suffrage movement and the other plays the anti-suffrage political establishment. You fight for control of the Senate, fillibusters, popular appeal, etc. Both have a ton of interaction and both scratch the asymmetric, figure out your opponent's weakness b/c it's different from your own, itch that I have in two-player board games

2:12

What do you think of Ben Brown going forward? Of pitchers with 60 innings he's got the 8th worst ERA yet the 20th best FIP and 18th best xFIP. Easy to say he's due for better luck, but when hitters make contact they pummel the ball.

Ben Clemens

2:13

yeah, this is a case wehre I don't really buy FIP. His approach leads to a ton of so-so fastballs getting put in play

There's just no way around it - that has to lead to a higher wOBACON than someone who's harder to predict and or square up

2:14

I get that hitters have more to say about contact quality than pitchers - but Ben Brown seems like the kind of guy who will coax the best results out of hitters more often than average, for the foreseeable future

Guest

2:14

In your Carlos Santana article, you included a table showing that pulled fly balls hit 90-95 mph result in a .812 wOBA, but opposite field fly balls hit 90-95 mph result in a .289 wOBA. Why would that be? I thought pulled balls were better because they were typically hit harder and/or at a better launch angle, but it seems like there's more to it......

Ben Clemens

2:15

I think a lot of it is that we're saying "fly balls with exit velocity x" but missing a lot of other factors. Like, the fly balls hit oppo have, on average, worse other characteristics. They're mishit, so maybe they have the wrong spin or they're disproportionately pop ups, t hat kind of thing

2:16

for sure, the hook on pulled fly balls contributes to their success, the ball hooking away from the left fielder and toward the foul line is very easy to conjure up in your mind's eye, but can you picture a righty hitting one with that kind of spin to right field? probably not

Sodo Mojo

2:16

I get Judge is way ahead of Raleigh in the MVP race but he is running a BABIP 100 points above his career average. If that regresses over the back 60% of the season could we see a much closer MVP race?

Ben Clemens

2:16

oh yes, Aaron Judge regresses but not Cal Raleigh haha. I mean.... sure?

2:17

realistically, though, this is Judge's to lose. If he posts ANOTHER wRC+ above 200, with all the counting stats that inevitably go with that, I'm not sure that voters will ignore it even if Raleigh continues his own absurd stretch

Raleigh is beating his projections by more than Judge, and Judge's xwOBA is a lot higher than Raleigh's wOBA (which itself outstrips his xwOBA by a decent amount)

2:18

like, yeah, Judge isn't gonna keep BABIP'ing .468, because that's not how reality works. But .375 and maybe some more home runs? feels resaonble to me!

NeedOffense

2:18

Jose Ramirez has a .947 OPS & is on pace for 30 HR & 35 2B, but he's on pace for only 78 RBI because non-Jose Guards hitting 2nd have a .372 OPS (not a typo). No question, just slowly losing my mind

Ben Clemens

2:18

Well here's the good news

The Guardians have never struggled with offense before and they've shown a penchant for quick fixes, so they'll solve this

2:19

wait, no, this team has historically been super bad at figuring out offense. It's wild, I doubt they're going to suddenly crack the code, I'm sorry for your slow descent into madness

Idiotic Failson

2:19

Is Shane Baz kind of a lost cause? He had a ton of prospect shine back in the day, and had a great start to the season, but seems like he's never going to be an above-average pitcher.

Ben Clemens

2:19

No one is ever truly a lost cause. That said, we have to be probabilistic. The odds here are that Baz isn't gonna figure it out

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