JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/9/25

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/9/25

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Ben Clemens

2:20

And I mean, hyou watch him and that feels about right

Austin

2:20

Saw someone already put something about Skubal but just curious how much concern you put into extending hardthrowing pitchers. I feel like he's bound to get TJ at some point, you think the Tigers are baking that into extension talks?

Ben Clemens

2:20

I think that it's baked into the contracts that pitchers get

2:21

So yeah, it's certainly in there, but every pitcher who signs a contract is a risk to blow out

that's just how it works, and in fact I think that's a benefit to signing these longer deals for young pithcers. If you have a guy for 2 years and he misses one, that really sucks. If you have him for 6 and he misses one, eh, it was baked into the cake

....eventually?

2:21

Like this Judge season has to 'stop' at some point. Right? Right?

That Guy

2:21

There’s a distinct possibility that we might have back-to-back non-Judge 10 WAR seasons in the AL that result in exactly zero first place MVP votes.

YouBeTheJudge

2:21

Judge's stats are definitely insane. Is there perhaps some luck that is going to deflate things? Looking at his stats, he is hitting more opposite field fly balls and pulled ground balls than in the past. That isn't supposed to improve your results. The majority of his home runs have gone the other way. Is this more than just luck?

Ben Clemens

2:22

I could just put Judge questions in here all day if I wanted

I guess what I'd say about the opposite field fly ball thing, in particular, is that what you're saying is true for the majority of players but Aaron Judge is not the majority of players

the reason that we don't love oppo fly balls is that they don't, on average, travel as far as your best contact

but Aaron Judge does not need his best contact to leave the yard

2:23

for him, the tradeoff might be "if I try to make contact deeper, I'm both getting longer to decide whether to swing and keeping more contact fair"

doesn't really matter whether you hit your home run 115 mph/470 feet or 106 mph/370 feet

Bosoxforlife

2:24

The Red Sox win 2 in the Bronx and the cloud over the season fades then I look at Giolito and Buehler listed as starters on Tuesday and Wednesday and a darker cloud reappears. Are these two guys as cooked as I think they are and if they both explode again do the Red Sox admit that they threw $40 million away.

Ben Clemens

2:26

I mean, I don't hate the way they're handling it for the time being. That said, I mostly think that because they've had a ton of pitching injuries. If we have a full strength Sox rotation, those guys are still churning out replacement level results, and they stay in the rotation, then I think it's a case of sunk cost fallacy

for now, sure, they cost more money than you'd love to spend for replacement level pitching. But do you know how many teams would happily accept some replacement level pitching?

jerry

2:26

and regarding wilson: we now have him, arraez, kwan, all firmly showing the value of contact. is this going to be a trend?

jacob wilson isn't geting the buzz he deserves. is he the antidote to sterile baseball, the prince that was promised?

As

2:26

Is Jacob Wilson someone that will defy hitting metrics for his career (Exit Velo, Barrel, Hard Hit, Bat Speed all below 10th percentile)? Or do you see some huge regression coming?

Ben Clemens

2:26

I'm not sure that you want Arraez in this example anymore. He's been just kinda bad the last two years

2:27

900 PA of the emptiest .304 average you'll ever see in '24-'25

my colleague Dan Szymborski is writing about him this week, in fact, I think

2:28

that said, I think Kwan in particular is a great example of how contact can play at the highest level

good defense, good OBP b/c of few strikeouts and enough walks to get free bases, at least passable baserunning

2:29

That feels easily achievable for Wilson. He's even starting to take walks, a HUGE positive sign for me

He's almost certainly not going to keep up his 20-homer pace, but he doesn't need to to be really valuable

2:30

I've been in for a while on Wilson, I'm always in on these guys. bat control at a premium defensive spot. If you get Arraez's bat out of him, you're probably quite happy

Nate

2:30

Has Maikel Garcia done enough to pencil him in as at least a league average regular, if not a 140 wRC+ guy

Ben Clemens

2:31

I'll be honest, I haven't looked deeply into Garcia this year aside from seeing his name a few times and going "huh, better than I thought."

2:32

looking through his page now, I mean, I'm willing to believe average regular

2:33

I love the defense, and I'm basically ignoring his down year by the metrics this year. I have always thought he should hit more homers than he showed in games. So yeah, the .375 BOP is not here to stay, but what about like .335 with the occasional cheeky homer? I'd be into that

Bosoxforlife

2:33

In an previous chat you said that in today's game a catcher would not get enough starts in be a viable MVP candidate like the great Berra and Campanella did in the 50's. I offer up for MVP consideration Cal Raleigh who has started 62 of the Mariners 63 games and appeared in the one game he didn't start. I wish no injury on the apparition that claims to be a mere human but a lengthy slump might allow Raleigh to have a chance.

Ben Clemens

2:34

Yeah, Raleigh is having a season for the ages in availability, not just in production

2:35

first in PA for catchers, fourth in innings caught, without seeming to wear down at all

2:36

the other guys putting up volume like this look ground down. Realmuto, William Contreras, Keibert Ruiz (!) (what are the Nats doing???)

okay seriously, why in the world is Keibert Ruiz on this list

Cal Raleigh

2:36

and damn sure I'm going to be part of the HR derby. I'm flexing this year baby!!!!!

Ben Clemens

2:36

I'm very much looking forward to this

UT

2:37

Does Polar Bear opt out if he becomes the Met's all-time HR leader? And do the Met's get involved in the bidding?

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