JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/10/23

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Ben Clemens

2:02

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

Let's hit some trade deadline questions, some All Star questions, and whatever else is on your mind, baseball or otherwise

Drew

2:02

Happy Allstar Break! Should the Padres trade Kim, Soto, Snell, and Hader to re-load for 2024 and clear some money off the books to make a go at signing Ohtani?

Ben Clemens

2:03

Nah, I don't think so -- maybe Hader and Snell if they fall further out of the race but Kim and Soto seem important for 2024

Byron Denniston

2:03

Hello! Can yous guys write a piece on how boring, overrated, and delusional it is for the Cubs to sell their way into saving The Future 2.0? What do these people think a 92 MPH Stroman and an 86 MPH EV Bellinger can actually bring back?

Ben Clemens

2:03

I think I generally agree with this, and with Stroman the opt out is also tricky

2:04

Like, what are they gonna get for half a year of Bellinger? A nice prospect surely

but nothing wild

Izzy

2:04

I know his BAPIP is high, but how much of Riley Greene's season is sustainable? His BAPIP will fall, but he was a top ranked prospect for a reason, so will any untapped talent offset the BAPIP?

Ben Clemens

2:05

I was just looking at Greene today as I do more trade value digging

I think that the untapped talent is going to help, but that he's probably not THIS good

2:06

He hits the crap out of the ball, that's real, but with this kind of strikeout rate I think he's headed for a correction

The next improvement probably comes on the plate discipline side

Ross

2:06

What did you think of the Mariners draft so far? Seems like there is quite a bit of disappointment at the picks and not the greatest reviews.

Alex

2:06

Did you like the Mariners draft or did they miss? Seeing them ranked as draft losers in a few places.

Ben Clemens

2:06

I am not really a draft person, we've got Eric and Michael for htat

Ohtani Stan

2:06

With the news that Trout is out for an extended period and with how firey-hot Ohtani is right now, what do you think the % is that he's moved by the trade deadline? I just don't see how the angels make the playoffs with Trout out and the recent skid

Ben Clemens

2:06

I still think it's not that high but if I were the Angels I'd do it, I think the returns would be huge

2:06

How big a teardown will the Cardinals go through? Like 1 or 2 of their chips or all of the pending FAs? And what odds would you put on a bigger deal like Goldy or Arenado?

Ben Clemens

2:07

I don't know, because the Cards don't really do this. If I were them, which is the best I can do, I'd trade all the pending FA's, and consider moving Helsley and Goldy

but I think you'd want to get a real haul to move Goldy, b/c he can be a key part of next year's team too

Arenado isn't getting moved after opting in

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:08

Day Two, Electric Boogaloo! Seems like teams are actually valuing speed/athleticism with the new rules...

Asked Billy Gasparino if the new rules that encourage base stealing had any effect on the eval of Kendall George, the fastest player in the Draft:

"A little bit to be honest, yeah...I think we start adding a little more value to that skill set. George was the perfect fit."

Ben Clemens

2:08

Yeah, cool to see

MrMet

2:08

Hi! If you were running the Pirates, who would you have chosen first in the draft and why?

Ben Clemens

2:08

Ah, a draft question I can totally answer

I would've taken Crews

b/c he's the best player

Sodo Mojo

2:08

I know you are not the draft guy but in concept would you rather be the Mariners with 3 late first round picks or the Nationals picking at #2?

Ben Clemens

2:08

Nats

slap hitter

2:08

Did the Mariners make a mistake giving J-Rod that contract? He looks much more above average regular with barely league average offense paired with great D than the superstar he looked like last year.

Ben Clemens

2:09

There was another Julio question in here but I'm just going to answer this one to cover both

I just don't buy that he's going to end up as a league average offensive player

I think last year is better than his underlying talent level and this year is worse

2:10

This is overly reductive, but his xSLG has declined by 20 points this year. His actual SLG has declined by 100 points

bosoxforlife

2:10

Do you have a comment, I am tongue-tied, on Elly De La Cruz's week. 14/30 topped off by the amazing baserunning play on Saturday. Are you on the Reds bandwagon yet?

Ben Clemens

2:10

I have been since Votto came back

2:11

My comment is that it's awesome and I don't think that people appreciate just how fast he is

Who's Fabio

2:11

Hey Ben - how do you think the pitch clock and other rule changes might affect players that have been hurt all year but will play again in MLB? What I'm asking is, will there be a catch up period? Worse for hitters or pitchers or no effect?

Ben Clemens

2:11

My guess is that it's worse for hitters coming back now that most of the pitcdhers you face will just be ready to go

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