JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/10/23

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Ben Clemens

2:21

Hey there

2:21

I know there was a piece on this early in the season, and just coming off the IL, but is Alejandro Kirk broken? Or was just playing above his head last year

Ben Clemens

2:21

I guess I think it's a bit of both plus a bit of 'everyone has a down year'

TomBruno23

2:22

I am not so sure the Cardinals have to trade the pending FAs when it comes to Montgomery and Flaherty. All depends on the offer as compared to the extra draft pick/bonus pool dollars.

Ben Clemens

2:22

I don't think they're gonna QO Flaherty

I agree with you on Montgomery

Kid

2:22

Want to get your thoughts on two super young hitters who recently signed long term deals - Wander and Julio Rodriguez. Both have had good spells, but have largely been underwhelming hitters this year (Wander is just 100 wRC+ since May 10th, and Julio has been hovering around 100-105 wRC+ all year after posting 146 last year). Do either/both get it going?

Ben Clemens

2:23

So, Wander is maybe always gonna be hot and cold, but he has 3.8 WAR on the back of a 124 wRC+, so like, that's good production even if it's streaky

I'm the opposite of worried about him, he seems great

Also all defensive systems seem to agree that he's looking excellent there

2:24

Julio.... he's still hitting the ball hard, I think this is just a soft spell and his defense and baserunning give him a really nice cushion, as discussed above

v2micca

2:24

Angels have to be buyers at the deadline right? They have to know that failing to make the post-season this year almost completely kills any chance they have to signing Ohtani to an extension.

Ben Clemens

2:24

Well.... I don't think they're signing Ohtani anyway

with Trout on the shelf, this is a tough one

2:25

I'm an always go for it kind of guy

But I think the return for Ohtani could be massive, even for a rental

The Angels know better than us whether they are likely to bring him back

2:26

For some reason I have more confidence in Riley Greene (even with the super high BABIP) than a guy like Luis Robert Jr. At least Greene seems to be able to walk and control the strike zone a little better. Robert seems like everything is going to wrong way except his power numbers (which have gone a right way in a big way) . I feel like he could be up and down a lot more than a guy Greene. What do you think?

Ben Clemens

2:26

I do not think this

Robert is an absolutely elite center fielder

I don't think he's gonna keep hitting like this, but he's playing at an MVP (non-Ohtani reality) pace right now

2:27

I like Greene's bat more on balance, but defense matters

I totally agree that his offense is by its very nature streakier than Greene's, it's more homers than walks, and homers happen less frequently

Miley

2:28

What would be a bigger surprise, the NLCentral getting two playoff teams or the AL Central champ finishing under .500?

Ben Clemens

2:28

NLC two playoff teams haha

not that either are particularly likely

Soundwave

2:28

I know you aren’t the draft guru, but have you heard any talk about the Clark pick re: was it about going under slot or did the Tigers just like him better than Langford?

Ben Clemens

2:28

Eric talked about this in his chat, I think there are rumors that Clark's number was lower than Langford's ad they liked them similarly

Andrew

2:28

To win the AL East: would you take the Rays or the field?

Ben Clemens

2:29

Rays

7 games is a ton

(that's 1st to 3rd)

so it's really just Rays/O's

and I like the Rays in that by a decent margin even though I picked the O's to win the division before the year

v2micca

2:29

Is it just me, or are the Nationals always drafting in the top two when there is some historically regarded talent in the draft?

Ben Clemens

2:29

skill game

Max

2:29

How do you feel about expansion? It seems that there are plenty of guys that could either get a real shot with more league-wide roster space, or could start on those teams. I think it's a different story between hitting/pitching but still.

Ben Clemens

2:30

I'm in favor of it

I think it would help get rid of this glut of really good arms that every team seems to have

like, the tail ends of bullpens still throw 98 with nasty sliders

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