JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/10/23

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Ben Clemens

2:39

I think his performance is probably sustainable, but uh, it's a 3.77 ERA, let's not get too overly excited

Highest ERA since his rookie year, and that's with him outperforming his peripherals

2:40

I think they should probably just trade him because that's how they operate, but they're going to be grumpy about the returns

Appa Yip Yip

2:40

High school seasons are super short, so maybe I'm missing something but isn't it weird guys can tumble really far in the draft based on like, 100 plate appearances? Obviously scouts have things they look for but it all seems so fraught.

Ben Clemens

2:40

This is 100% how I feel

Teams have HUGE groups looking into this stuff, of course, but it does feel a bit over engineered to me

Jeremy

2:40

Were you underwhelmed when you tried to built mic drop bullpens for the Dbacks and Rangers? I mean, is, say, "add Dave Robertson and Joe Kelly" really going to make the difference between a non-mic drop bullpen and a mic drop bullpen?

Ben Clemens

2:41

Haha I was a little bit underwhelmed by the available reliever class

I think that Helsley and Hader are the big names that could go

Helsley, Hicks, Barlow would really transform a bullpen

So would Hader/Robertson

but if you don't get either Helsley or Hader, yeah, the rest of the names aren't bowl-you-over good

Guest

2:41

At what point should the win probability be 100% prior to the end of the game? For instance, the Angels were up 25 to 1 in the 5th, but the win probability was only 99.8%. In what universe do teams come back twice in 1000 games with that score?

Ben Clemens

2:42

If that was our FG win percentage, I can basically tell you why that is

Ours are based on historical data and there aren't enough games with those situations so we have to bundle

TomBruno23

2:42

I think QO to Flaherty is an easy "Yes" for STL given the draft benefits of him signing elsewhere or having him for a year to help fill out what we already know looks like a paper thin rotation (at best) heading into 2024.

Ben Clemens

2:43

We'll see, I guess. It's a pretty big raise, but they do have some money coming off the books in the form of Wainwright and likely DeJong

2:44

I just don't know if adding a one-year starter for 20 million bucks is what the Cards are looking to do this offseason

particularly one who has a checkered injury history

bosoxforlife

2:44

Jarren Duran has been a revelation, and that is a gross understatement. He isn't even qualified yet is second in the league in doubles. Is this for real or should the Red Sox sell high and get a pitcher? Heaven knows they need several.

Ben Clemens

2:44

I would keep him

Because I think he's awesome

2:45

I'm in favor of keeping awesome players

I also think that 'sell high' is overused and doesn't really work that well in practice

Like, let's make up a scale. Say the guy was a 6 last year, is playing at an 11, and everyone says 'well sell high'

teams aren't valuing him like an 11. They're probably valuing him like an 8

2:46

I think that holding and seeing if he's an 11 is often a good plan

Eh?

2:46

Are the 2023 Rays comparable to the 2021 Giants? A bunch of 90th percentile outcomes that make up one really good team? We knew they'd be decent, but it seems like every player is overperforming relative to expectations.

Ben Clemens

2:46

Yes, very good comp

The difference for me is that it's younger guys, so it feels more like it could carry to the future, but that's totally what's going on

Harmon Ripkowski

2:46

You bring in a pinch runner from anytime in baseball history, who do you bring in?

Ben Clemens

2:46

Peak Rickey

2:47

Normally I'd do the whole 'well athletes today just train more effectively thanks to scientific advancement, do the players in the past get to use modern training methods?' hedge dance

but no, Rickey please

Hicks

2:47

Not mentioned in an earlier question was his chance of being traded? Will teams value him a little more because he has been a steady closer for the last month?

Ben Clemens

2:47

I think he's 100% to get traded, 98% maybe just to hedge

TomBruno23

2:47

I am not saying the Cardinals are looking to add a one year starter for 20M for 2024 I am saying if that is the end result of the QO (and I do not think he would come back, probably gets a decent 1 year + option type deal from a club he wants to be with) I think they will be fine with it. Much more likely he is dealt by 7/31 anyway.

Ben Clemens

2:48

Oh yeah I think he's realllllly likely to get dealt

If they don't go 9-1 out of the break or something

2:48

I feel like only a few teams can risk signing a guy to $45mil+ who would be their best hitter and at least a #2 pitcher. I mean it's like if Freddie Freeman and Kershaw collide at 1B an both our out for an extended period of time. I feel like that Ohtani specific risk actually makes his price go down. Maybe he will get some big playing time incentives to go with a $40mil contract. Say $5mil for 20 starts or more and another $5mil for 400+ PA.

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