JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/10/23

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/10/23

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Ben Clemens

2:56

that you'll get a lot of juice

Like, it's no accident that all the ads at Angels stadium are in Japanes

Japenese*

Travis

2:56

Do baseball players ever hold out? I was just looking back on Acuna’s contract and jeez, he can’t be happy being locked up for 5 more years for under a hundred million, can he?

Ben Clemens

2:56

They haven't for a long time, and yeah, his contract is pretty low

on the other hand, he probably was liking the certainty when he missed a year

Appa Yip Yip

2:57

The interesting thing about Ohtani is that we already know money doesn't motivate him, he gave up so much to come over early and enter arbitration. Like at what point does he look at these giant numbers and decide the difference between them is irrelevant and just picks a place based on chance to win and vibes.

Ben Clemens

2:57

I think that the money is going to be so huge that it'll be vibes based for sure

I cannot even tell you how badly I want Ohtani to come to the Giants so I can see him in person all the time

I'm praying he's a NorCal vibes kind of guy

Jeimer

2:57

Potential landing spots? Kinda bummed him and/or Lane Thomas didn’t get in the ASG because they’ve both been consistently good this year.

Ben Clemens

2:58

Jeimer is making me feel smart

I thought he was an amazing sign for the Nats

I dunno where he'll end up, but how about the Yankees?

Segue:

Tel

2:58

At this point is IKF the Yankees best offensive option at 3rd base? LeMahieu can't hit his way out of a paper bag right now. Although there might be some hope in Donaldson's .083 BABIP and .352 xwOBA (which would be the highest on the active roster), a .152 BA and .232 OBP are hard to ignore.

Ben Clemens

2:58

2:59

And that's all I have to say about that

OriolesFan

2:59

If Pete Alonso doesn't win tonight, is that the biggest upset in Home Run Derby history?

Ben Clemens

2:59

I don't know the complete history of the derby but yes

Alek Manoah

2:59

Does one start VS DET give anyone confidence that I'm back?

Ben Clemens

2:59

I'm kinda bought in?

3:00

No walks!

That is his first game this year without a walk

3:01

When I looked into him this year, one of his biggest problems were that his mechanics were out of whack, so he was yanking a lot of sliders and missing by so much that they weren't competitive

3:02

On the year as a whole, he's thrown 11% of his pitches in the "waste" zone (no one swings against pitches there)

Last year, 8%

Against the Tigers, 8.8%

3:03

I'm not saying he's necessarily fixed, but that's what I'm watching more so than the actual results

Dan

3:03

I remember thinking DJ Lemehuie was overpaid but not by enough to bother the Yankees. Then I looked at his estimated value and he's already earned his entire contract and it's not like he aged much better than expected either. I wonder if there is more value in low end stars than commonly assumed.

Ben Clemens

3:03

I'm with you on this theory

3:04

Those high likelihood, mid-AAV contracts just get you a few years of all star level production fairly often

and then it's all gravy

I think you need to think of how to handle the decline phase, and how to keep your team competitive over the years (like, don't do the Padres type thing of stacking everything up now), but there's real merit in those deals

JCCfromDC

3:04

Do you think that the Nats can get more than a comp pick for Candelario? I could totally see the Nats making him a QO. Doubt he accepts (at his age this is his best chance at a good FA deal) but if he does, he's a great one year bridge to the House/Alu/Morales/Libscomb era.

Ben Clemens

3:05

Hmmmm.... so it'd be after comp round B

so like, early third round pick essentially

Yeah, I think they could probably exceed that

Pat

3:05

Speaking of Jeimer..Detroit initially got him AND Paredes for a 2+ months of Al Avila & Justin Wilson..Then got Lange for 2 months of Nick Castellanos. Al Avila (the dad) may have not been a good GM, but, man, he had the Cubs number!!!

Ben Clemens

3:06

That trade was such a haul

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