JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/12/21

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Safety Stegosaurus

2:14

Which team is benefiting the most for getting time off from the all star break?

Ben Clemens

2:16

I kind of think the Padres. They have a lot of pitching injuries, so the rest will help the remaining guys and also get their players who are out closer to a return

2:17

I don't think it's a huge difference vs other teams though. Rest helps everyone

Derek

2:17

So with news that Ohtani is starting the ASG, do we know if MLB is going to force the AL to follow actual baseball rules and lose the DH? It probably wouldn't matter much given bench sizes, but also... who cares about rules in the ASG?

Ben Clemens

2:17

haven't heard anything about it, I assume they get to do whatever they want

No one cares and Ohtani is fun

A cat

2:18

Would the Snakes entertain a Marte-Downs swap with BOS, maybe with a milb-for-mlb rp swap as well? Marte fits the BOS contender timeline as a 2B with Devers, X, Verdugo, Renfro, Duran, while Downs could prosper in a rebuild. Would BOS do it?

Ben Clemens

2:18

Boston would absolutely do it (in my opinion at least)

As you'll perhaps see in next week's trade value series (spoiler alert!), we think that Marte has significantly more value in trade than Downs

2:20

I think that the DBacks are unlikely to trade Marte, actually. They don't think they're as bad as their record this year, and while the NLW is looking tough, you have to try to compete at some point, and their core points to competing now. If they do a complete teardown, sure, but it's weird to trade Marte but keep most of their pre-arb/early-arb types who don't really fit a rebuild

RAGBRAI

2:20

Brewers. First base add, third base add or just a good bat add no matter where it fits?

Ben Clemens

2:21

Good bat (though probably not at second, short, or catcher)

SO basically what you said plus outfield?

Fat Spielberg

2:21

I want to put a plug in for Forbidden Island. It's very similar to Pandemic, but it's simpler and we liked it better.

Ben Clemens

2:21

Oh yeah, if you want a cooperative game like Pandemic, totally agree

It has that 'oh gosh everything is collapsing around me and i can only save so many things' feel

2:22

Without feeling like you're fighting COVID, and also with a theme I enjoy

namiki

2:23

Some players are declining to participate in the All-Star Games. How much of an effect does declining have on their recovery from fatigue?

Ben Clemens

2:23

100% helps

They skip a flight, skip wear and tear, and probably just sit at home with cucumber wedges on their eyes

Sounds lovely

Mopete

2:23

Hey Ben, I know you’ve discussed this in the past chats but I can’t find it, can you explain why looking at average exit velocity for a hitter isn’t very useful?

Ben Clemens

2:24

What a heck of a coincidence, I'm writing about this for tomorrow as it relates to Omar Narvaez

But roughly speaking... exit velocity increases aren't worth the same uniformly throughout the distribution

2:25

Going from 79 to 80 isn't as valuable as going from 99 to 100

And so when you use an average metric, it treats every 1mph as the same implicitly

Derek

2:25

Ohtani is AL starting pitcher, bats leadoff in All-Star Game | The Seattle Times

They did change the rules!

Ben Clemens

2:25

Amazing, and good

Late Bloomer

2:26

If you were a gambling man, which first-half underperformer (by their superstar standards - think Mookie, Soto, Bellinger, etc.) would you bank on to have a big second-half after the break?

Ben Clemens

2:27

I am a gambling man, though not really about baseball, feels a bit strange... not to say I've never placed a wager, of course

But uh, SOto

By a ton

Appa Yip Yip

2:28

Important to also note that Altuve and Correa don't have to share a clubhouse with dudes from other teams.

Ben Clemens

2:28

Honestly I can't get that worked up about the Astros thing

It's fine!