JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/12/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/12/21

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Ben Clemens

2:46

Braves, I think

I'm not sure who I would have picked before Acuna got hurt but now it must be SO disappointing to be a Braves fan

Just, ugh

joe

2:46

Who should the Yankees go get at the deadline?

Ben Clemens

2:47

I'd be very interested in Trevor Story if I were them

Fat Spielberg

2:47

I'm trying to figure out the odds of the Yankees finishing with a record of .500 or below. Can that info be found somewhere on the FG projected standings page? If so, I'm missing it.

Ben Clemens

2:47

This won't be *perfect*, but select 'distribution' on the playoff odds page

2:48

It'll show the distribution of our 10,000 simulations, as well as 25th and 75th percentiles

Derek Falvey

2:48

Not a good farm system? I have more legit-looking pitchers in AA or higher this year than the last guy had in his final 10 years combined!

Ben Clemens

2:49

Tremendous insult/compliment combination

Like, that's true, but that says more about the last guy than the current Twins system

Most of that is because they've promoted good players to the majors, which is the point of farm systems!

They've done quite well

2:50

But those guys are already in the majors, so they're ready right now

Mr. Redlegs

2:50

What would it take to pry Kiner-Falefa from the Rangers?

Ben Clemens

2:51

I don't think they're particularly motivated to trade him. A top 100 prospect would get it done in my opinion, but I think you'd have to overpay the Rangers, and at that point why do it?

2:52

He's an organizational and fan favorite

Guest

2:52

do you think eugenio suarez will have a better second half? Or is he just not very good anymore?

Ben Clemens

2:53

I definitely think he'll rebound

I also think he's worse than he used to be

If he's an average hitter, that's a big rebound

Luis Arraez

2:56

What's my long-term role in Minnesota....it I have one?

Ben Clemens

2:57

I think you do. You're someone we struggled with placing on the trade value list, because the bat is great but I'd rather have Fletcher or Madrigal if I wanted that type of pitcher

Hitter, whoops

2:58

My guess for the long-term role is basically what's going on now, kind of a floating useful bat who is below average at several positions

That's a nice player

Fat Spielberg

2:58

Will Brandon Nimmo ever make an All-Star team? Or is he too injury prone and walks/HBP not sexy enough for this to happen?

Ben Clemens

2:58

If you made it even odds, I'd take yes

2:59

I just think that he has enough pop (at times) to spike a line where it's just too good to ingore

ignore*

Now, I don't know if he'll make it in the fan vote

Armadillofury

2:59

How rare are age 34 breakouts like Brandon Crawford's?

Ben Clemens

2:59

Just, vanishingly rare

Chicago Dog

3:00

Do you think the Cubs retain any of Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, Kimbrel, etc. at the deadline or do they sell anything that's not nailed down to build the next NL Central juggernaut?!

Ben Clemens

3:00

I think the most likely outcome is that they end up trading Bryant and Kimbrel but retaining Baez (who they end up re-signing) and Rizzo

3:02

Rizzo is because I just don't see who they'd find to take him on, at his contract, and give them anything back

Guest

3:02

will cubs be willing to trade within NLC?

Ben Clemens

3:02

In a word: no

Byron Buxton

3:04

How has this year impacted my trade value and/or contract demands?

Ben Clemens

3:04

Trade value, I think it's just made a trade vanishingly unlikely

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